N Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Hong Kong - all pretty quiet in part because of the volume of US / Iran reporting and that things are just generally quieter.
Iran/Iraq
A senior Iranian general was on Iranian TV telling the audience that the missile attack was just the start of a larger operation. He highlighted the various “Hezbollah” elements in the region.
Iranian and some western reporting agencies are repeating the story that the missiles used by iran were “highly” accurate. That is a bogus statement. The Qaim is a liquid fueled derivative of the good old scud. In the Soviet era, the scud was to carry nuclear rounds to pinpoint accuracy was not necessary. The Zolfaghar (aka Fateh-110) is a smaller solid fueled missile originally based on an unguided artillery rocket ( Zelzal-2 ) to which they added a guidance package. Historical performance - the recent attack had at the start a 25% missile failure rate. Looking at the pattern of the missiles strikes it is obvious the bases were the target but that the missiles were not accurate enough to hit much - and an air base covers a lot of terrain. Other historical uses of these rockets have yielded similar, poor results. Mostly they are developed for propaganda and fear mongering, not accuracy.
The talk of continued “operations” and Iranian propaganda efforts to delegitimize the failure of the missile attack to the extent that it made Iran appear to be even weaker than before.
Libya
Reports that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have called for a ceasefire to end the conflict in Libya. This civil war is such a twisted mess that the cease fire is likely not to happen. The ‘rebel’ LNA air force struck a Turkish facility and inflicted significant casualties a couple days ago and Turkey has been deploying more ground forces to shore up the GNA military. The bigger picture for Turkish involvement is their play to control eastern Med oil reserves.
Ah, the inshallah guidance package!
FYI - "Highly accurate" is of course subjective, however, the Fateh-110 has an alleged accuracy of 100 to 250 meters.
A satellite image (above) of the Ain Al Assad Airbase after Iran's missile attack showing the damage caused to the site after Iran launched ballistic missiles. [1]
Just wondering about NK.
Perhaps Xi has him under wraps.
I remember Xi presented Kim with a very large vase.
http://www.koogle.tv/media/news/xi-showered-kim-jong-un-with-gifts-during-visit/
Big enough to put a person inside, in my opinion.
It reminded me of the Japanese movie Kagemusha.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kagemusha
3 Clans where vying for power of Japan.
One of the Warlords was wounded. He had a double trained to take his place so the enemy and his troops would not know he died.
They placed his body in a large vase and buried it secretly in a lake.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080979/mediaindex?page=1&ref_=ttmi_mi_sm
image 3 rows down on right.
So my thought was that maybe this pot was a threat to Kim to keep him in line, not deal with Trump without his permission. Otherwise he could be replaced by a double that Xi could have complete control over.
I think it is possible.
Good morning.
Iran.
There are mixed signals coming from Iranian commanders indicating more attacks are coming. This syncs with pre attack rhetoric but not post where the govt official said attacks were complete. Could be disinformation for internal and/or external consumption. One has to remember Iran promised a sustained campaign. No signs that the US is stopping regional reinforcement of military personnel and equipment.
Reuters is reporting this morning that internal “spies” tipped off the US about Soleimani‘s travel. This is believable in that Soleimani has also designed and directed the lethal repression of internal Iranian protests thane have killed thousands over the past year alone.
Iraq
Ongoing protests in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, against Iran|ian proxies and the Iraqi government which are reportedly involved in corruption and collusion with Tehran. Injuries, likely inflicted by Iranian backed militias, reported among the protestors.
Israel/Iran
Overnight IAF struck Iraq’s Iran-backed Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Force) in the Albu Kamal area, Vehicles and arms depots were struck causing numerous secondary explosions and killing at least 8. This site is along a land route Iran has used to ship arms and material to Hezbollah forces in western Syria and Lebanon. It is thought the strike hit a recent shipment.