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It is beginning to look like 2020 is going out with a bang. Buckle up!

Wuhan Virus -
DoughtyOne has decided to cease his monumental data crunching of the wuhan virus stats. An epic task, one that he is setting aside to pursue other items. Many thanks for your contributions to FR.

LA county has instituted a ban on gatherings of people from different households under a new “safer-at-home order” triggered by a spike in Covid-19 cases, with religious services and protests exempt. The order will take effect Monday and last at least three weeks, until December 20.

Economy -
Black Friday sales were muted across the nation. Called “black” because starting on the day after Thanksgiving, business sales would put the revenues into the ‘black’ for the year. This year, particularly small businesses will be struggling not only to keep the doors open thru Christmas, but into 2021 as well.

2020 Election-
Based on the AP race calls, the GOP is currently at +9 in the House but that doesn’t include several races in which Democrats have already conceded. In particular, Democrat Max Rose conceded to Nicole Malliotakis in the NY-11 race more than a week ago. So the GOP will be at +10 once the AP catches up.

The Arizona State Legislature will hold a hearing on election integrity Monday, November 30. Rudy Giuliani and Jenna Ellis will be present on behalf of President Donald J. Trump.

MSM focusing on the minor legal losses by the Trump team and totally missing some of the big wins. Pennsylvania is one of them where an emergency injunction was issued prohibiting certification of the election.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
Numerous statues were torn down and defaced over the past several days by groups obliquely protesting Thanksgiving.

We will see after tomorrow is BLM/Antifa based threats against Trump supporters/conservatives in Pennsylvania will be carried out. Sunday was the deadline given for Trump to concede the election or blockades of conservative areas by armed BLM/Antifa groups will begin.

Strategic Developments -
The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is being moved back into the Persian Gulf region along with other warships to provide combat support and air cover as US troops withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan by January 15 under President Trump’s orders (CNN). USNI had the Nimitz steaming eastward in the vicinity of the southern tip of India. According to their tracking it is headed west again towards the Arabian Gulf. Monitoring to see if other naval assets are being redeployed too the region. Unnamed officials state that the movement was decided before the assassination of Fahrizade. B52 bombers and some accompanying F16 and F15 fighters are in the gulf region.

Russia -
Russian supported forces in Eastern Ukraine have been stalled since 2015. This is in part due to growing defensive skill of Western Ukraine forces combined with casualties and equipment losses by Russian backed forces. Russia has a lot of irons in the fire - Syria, Libya, Armenia and else where. With its economy still crippled by sanctions and a loss of oil revenue, it has been hard pressed to modernize its forces and replace that which has been lost.

Taiwan -
State Department director of policy planning Peter Berkowitz voiced support “Taiwan’s freedom and independence”. This reflects increasing diplomatic and military actions in support of Taiwan and serves as a warning against Chinese aggression. China has not been pleased with the support Taiwan has been receiving this month.

Israel -
Israel put its embassies around the world on high alert after the assassination of Fahrizade, as Iran vows to avenge his killing. Israeli military is already on heightened alert for the past couple weeks following word that President Trump was evaluating first strike options against Iran.

Iran -
Mohsen Fahrizade the architect of Iran’s military nuclear program was assassinated in Tehran, Iranian media reports. Iranian state television said an old truck with explosives hidden under a load of wood blew up near a sedan carrying Fakhrizadeh. As Fahrizade’s sedan stopped, at least five gunmen emerged and raked the car with rapid fire, the semiofficial Tasnim news agency said. Analysts have compared Fahrizade to being on a par with Robert Oppenheimer, the scientist who led the U.S.′ Manhattan Project in World War II that created the atom bomb.

Protests have broken out in Tehran calling for revenge for the assassination. Reports also indicate the crowd was chanting calls for war with America - common rhetorical fare. Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander reportedly has stated “We have decided to retaliate and punish severely those who planned, carried out and supported the assassination”. Both the US and Israel are considered by Iran as being responsible for the assassination. However, Israel is the target of the primary anger, with Iranian officials stating “serious indications of Israeli responsibility” . Rhetoric is also being directed to historical arch enemy Saudi Arabia for their ‘cooperation’ with the US and Israel.

MY OBSERVATIONS - the next few days will be tense. Iran is in the horns of a dilemma. It wants to avoid poking the US bear too severely so that it triggers a massive US strike that would likely target its nuclear development facilities as well as key military targets. The President has a history of not pulling punches. With the help of Hezbollah, a strike on Israel is more likely, however short of the Hezzies launching open war, Israel too may strike Iran’s nuclear program sites - possibly with nuclear weapons (lacking the convention munitions and delivery system the US has available). If they do nothing, their regime could further collapse into chaos - losing face. Very serious situation.

Iraq -
Iran has directed its puppet militias in Iraq to stand down and cease violence against the US until the election is settled. The mullahs’ see a big target painted on them. However, the assassination of Fahrizade may change matters.

Now is the time to work off those excess calories fighting through the crowds on Black Friday.

Wuhan Virus -
Pfizer has announced that its COVID-19 vaccine is being prepositioned for distribution, pending its approval by the Food and Drug Administration.

Much is being made about the article associated with Johns Hopkins University and the lack of ‘excess deaths’. First, the article appeared in a student published NEWSLETTER, not the peer reviewed publications of the University. Second, as such, the attempt to link it to the more rigorous publications is an intellectually dishonest effort. Now, with that said the material of the article - the essence there of - does raise some questions that should be placed to peer - review level as I don’t think the student who authored the article was a nut job either. Hopefully, a detailed review of the issues raised will be done. Similar examinations of the records have noted flu deaths apparently being absorbed into the wuhan death count.

New Mexico’s closures of grocery stores has continued to snowball, with people waiting hour in line in many places. Hardest hit are smaller communities where the only store has been closed. The democrat governor’s office issued a statement proclaiming that the state is “not forcing anyone to stand in a crowded line.” Photographic evidence says otherwise.

Not to be out done by LA, San Francisco has ordered a three week long shutdown. The curfew requires non-essential businesses to close and prohibits members of different households from gathering between 10pm and 5am until December 21. Santa Clara County just tightened its restrictions to include: “A new mandatory directive on travel will require people to quarantine for 14 days upon return to the County from travel of more than 150 miles. Healthcare workers and patients traveling to provide or receive care are exempted.”

Economy -
I mentioned yesterday that Black Friday sales were dismal. Now the numbers have been crunched and traffic at stores on Black Friday fell by 52.1% compared with last year, according to preliminary data from Sensormatic Solutions. However, online spending on Black Friday surged 21.6% to hit a new record, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

2020 Election-
Pennsylvanian legislature, controlled by republicans, is taking steps to reclaim its authority to appoint electors to the Electoral college.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
Fallout from Minneapolis’ coddling of rioters, defunding of police and the resultant exodus of police has resulted in increased crime in more prosperous neighborhoods. The city councils’ response? Cut the police budget even more.

Iran -
As mourning begins for Fakhrizadeh’s, Iranian leadership ratchet up the rhetoric, calling for fire to be brought down on those who executed the kill. Meanwhile, none of the twelve individuals who allegedly participated in the Fakhri Zadeh assassinations have been arrested arrested. Another interesting detail that has come out is that 30 minutes prior to the hit, power in the neighborhood was cut off. This prevented him from being treated by a local emergency room, forcing him to be transferred to a hospital in Tehran.

The UN has called for restraint by Iran to prevent further escalation of regional tensions. Israel has remained silent on the operation.