Wuhan Virus -
Yesterday was a blood bath for the DOW dropping over 1000 points (3.5%). Markets around the world reflected the same on fear of supply disruptions from China as well as internal chaos in their own countries. Potential for severe economic chaos and global unrest if this pulls the carpet from under the global economy.
I’m not going to cover the current numbers except to note that additional studies indicate that for about 80% of the infected population the symptoms are mild to asymptomatic. The danger lies in the 20% that have to be hospitalized and in many cases with severe lung/breathing conditions. Of those hospitalized, the mortality rate is staggering. I can see where advanced health care is overwhelmed like China, hospitalized can’t get the necessary care. Smaller infections in advanced countries have been able to stave off high mortality rates because the care is still readily available. Overwhelm the system and it comes crashing down.
In the US, POTUS has requested 2.5 Billion for an emergency response plan/preparation in the event the virus breaks uncontrollable. Democrats typically stonewalling the request.
Iran’s MP Mahmoud Sadeghi and the Deputy Health minister Iraj Harirchi are reported to be infected with the virus. I find it interesting that two ministers are infected - who with govt access brought the virus in from China? Iran is on tight hold on the extent of the epidemic, struggling to deal with the economic crisis due to sanctions and a broad uprising against the government. Wuhan could drive further revolts and riots against the Imams.
LOOK AHEAD. With more outbreaks there is increased probability this will break into a pandemic. We are in the window warned about a couple of weeks ago where lack of controls and the high rate of infection come together to begin a serious global spread.
Turkey -
Heavy fighting continues in Idlib with Turkey and supported forces continuing to be driven back. The more the Turks get pushed back, the only choices left to them are to fall back or go all in.
Israel/Gaza -
Over the past couple days PIJ launched over 80 rockets into southern Israel. Over night PIJ announced a unilateral ceasefire. Israel still on a measured state of alert. Israel conducted heavy airstrikes against PIJ targets not only in Gaza but Syria as well and the attrition may be one of the factors in the ceasefire. Ceasefire only means re-arm to Islamic terrorists.
Libya -
Civil war there is at a bloody stalemate. The “official” government (GNA) is being propped up by Turkey (because of agreements for oil exploration in the Med) while the rebels (LNA) are supported by the Russians. This week there have been attempts to negotiate a cease fire, with out success.
CW2 -
Seems that the chaos surrounding the hard left’s take over of the democrat presidential primaries has put breaks on the restart of more witch hunts to impeach President Trump. If the Wuhan virus does breakout in the US, social and civil unrest may breakout. Get your basic preps now - OTC flu and cold medicines as well as start pumping up on immune boosters like Vit C.
Wuhan Virus -
Too many numbers to keep track of - others do better such as this link that tracks the current epidemic to others of recent concern like SARS and MERS.
https://youtu.be/6dDD2tHWWnU
Greater concerns have hit the stock market as reports of infections spreading to regions outside of China continues. Much has been made about the comparison of the deaths to date from the corona virus to that of the flu. The mortality rate from the flu in the US is about 0.1% from infections of approximately 45 million. The corona virus has recorded fewer deaths, but is at a mortality rate of 2-3% range - 20 times that of the regular flu. We need to keep percentages in mind, and not straight number comparisons as one gauge of the danger. The other is the transmission factor - which is high but hard to gauge given that it can be spread asymptomatically. As quarantines spread into other countries, economic disruptions become more severe, especially since most of those economies have been under-performing as of late.
The President announced the task force to address federal coordination of the prevention and control of any potential pandemic. It lays out common sense. We really still don’t know enough about the spread to be dogmatic and so far the travel restrictions and quarantine of those infected here are holding. We have some time to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. But if the worst happens, this could be a black swan event that can seriously damage our economy and be utilized by the left to generate further chaos.
Actions by other governments are too numerous to summarize here.
Turkey/Syria-
Turkish efforts in Idlib have been hampered due to Russian control of the airspace over the region. Erdogan warned on Feb. 5 that the Syrian regime forces must withdraw from the area that was designated as a de-escalation zone in Idlib until the end of February, signaling a new military operation if the threat against Turkey’s military posts in the area continues.
Israel/Gaza-
In an interview on Tuesday, Israel’s Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said that a major ground offensive into Gaza to stop the terrorism threat of rockets/mortars into southern Israel will happen in the “near future”. There is general support for such an operation given the regularity of rocket/mortar attacks. Hints are of a surprise attack. Inference was also made that supporting sites in Syria, mostly storage and some manufacturing facilities, will also be hit.
Israel/Hezbollah
Breaking this morning are unconfirmed reports of a senior Hezbollah leader - Imad al-Tawil - being taken out over night by a drone strike in the Golan area. He was in charge of coordinating operations in the Golan. No confirmation yet from Hezbollah, but if so the unfolding of their response needs close monitoring. Additionally, this would confirm the presence of Hezbollah operations in Syria. Current (last couple hours) of a lot of reported IAF activity over the Golan and Lebanon.
Iran -
Iranian efforts to expand their control in Iraq and Syria are not producing the desired results. Despite the much reduced budget for operations in Syria, the Iranian Quds Force officers in charge convinced their bosses back in Iran that more cash was needed. Cash will become harder to get if the corona virus outbreaks continues to expand in Iran as it currently appears on track to do. That and continued pressure by Israel through destruction of Iranian bases and storage facilities will make money dry up even quicker.
CW2 -
New Mexico Governor signed a ‘red flag’ law and told sheriffs to resign if they won’t enforce any seizure orders. Sheriffs say they don’t work for the state but those who elected them.