Friday morning mania - here’s what’s on my radar
Wuhan Virus -
Big numbers still, 64,456 infected and 1384 deaths (2.1%). NOTE: these numbers vary to some extent based upon sources and even times of the day. Center of mass still China, with some growth outside. China continuing to receive appropriate criticism from WHO and other health agencies around the world. Worse, health care workers are being infected at an increasing rate.
The massive quarantine (last count over 400 million) has thrown China’s manufacturing into a tailspin and it’s impacting global markets probably more than the infection itself. For example, overnight Singapore’s PM has stated the economic impact has already exceeded that of the SARS outbreak in 2003 and threaten to create a recession.
Israel -
Overnight IAF struck Iranian targets in Damascus area suspected of being ammunition depots. This is a continuation of Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s influence in Syria as well as interrupt supplies slated for Hezbollah in Lebanon. These attacks serve to further drain Iran’s already strained finances and humiliate its leadership’s inability to respond.
Syria/Turkey -
Situation is still escalating as Syrian forces push further into the Idlib area. 10 Turkish outposts surrounded by Syrian backed militias and army. Russian airstrikes hit Idlib and surrounding villages. Another Syrian helicopter was shot down overnight in the Aleppo area.
Persian Gulf / Iran -
Yesterday, USN intercepted an Iranian dhow and confiscated 150 anti-tank guided missiles (Iranian copies of the Russian Kornet ATGM). The dhow was en-route to Yemen and the munitions were likely for Houthi fighters. Houthi are essentially proxy fighters for Iran against Saudi Arabia.
CW2 -
Increasing numbers of violence against Trump supporters in daily reports embedded in alternative media (MSM refuses to comment). One can label at this time ‘lone wolf’ attacks. These seem to be the most mentally imbalanced of the liberal democrats being triggered. Increase began after the Florida van attack on republicans and now includes assaults on a 15 year old, a fire bomb attack on a republican campaign office, and others.
Antifa seems to be trying to come back into importance, particularly in the Portland area. They were humiliated by the VA pro-2d amendment march. As Bernie continues to lead the democrat polling I’m not sure just what their long term game is. Increased protests have backfired, but intimidation of opponents does provide them with some short term gains - particularly in recruiting.
There are more and more antifa affiliated ‘shooting clubs’ developing/organizing across the country. While in many instances their weapon proficiency is laughable, there appears to be a core element that has combat veterans that is encouraging and training these soyboys. I have no doubt they are also selectively recruiting the more proficient ones for more detailed tactical training. At this time I don’t see them being capable to match Patriots (3%, militias, etc) but they appear to be working hard to attain parity and even localized superiority.
“Allah did not create man so that he could have fun. The aim of creation was for mankind to be put to the test through hardship and prayer. An Islamic regime must be serious in every field. There are no jokes in Islam. There is no humor in Islam. There is no fun in Islam. There can be no fun and joy in whatever is serious.”
— Ayatollah Khomeini
Very busy lately, but still monitoring things. Here’s whats on my radar today
Wuhan Virus -
Still high numbers, but there are reports of falling numbers of new cases in China, suggesting the epidemic has peaked. WHO director Ghebreyesus warns the potential trend “must be interpreted very cautiously”, indeed with the very strong evidence of China hiding the numbers can any number be trusted. Most recent numbers I’ve come across 75,129 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,007 fatalities .
Global expansion of infections after these many weeks does not appear to be out of control. One recent number has 827 cases in 26 countries with 5 deaths (0.6% mortality rate versus 2-3% in China).
Secondary affects from China’s massive quarantines still ripple out from closed factories and supplies to other countries, causing slowdowns and shut downs there. Many nations are concerned that this could cause a major world recession. Some in the US are finally waking up to the reality of just how MUCH the US imports from China - in this instance prescription medicines and other medical supplies/equipment.
Israel -
Much of the attention is focused on the pending 3d election. Pretty much the standard fare of Hamas et al sending IED balloons and a few rockets/mortars across the border with IAF blowing up things for real. Plus threats and insults from both sides. Rumors that PIJ may seize the relative “calm” between Israel and Hamas to stir up more trouble. Time will tell if Hamas will be able to keep PIJ under their thumb.
Syria/Turkey -
Turkish military efforts to stop Syria/Russia in the Aleppo area have failed. The operation cleared a main highway (M5) allowing resupply and rapid reinforcement of pro-Syria forces. The assault puts additional pressure on the Idlib Provence. Turkey sees stability in the Idlib Provence essential to its security of its southern border with Syria. Given the Syrian/Russian refusal to follow an earlier agreement to halt further assaults, pressure is rising on Turkey to respond more directly and militarily to the advance.
Iran -
Parliamentary elections are coming in three days. The expected turnout is less than 20% as most if not all recognize that only the candidates that are loyal to the clerical dictatorship are allowed to run; past results haven’t improved their economy and quality of life. Major public protests have subsided in recent weeks, with thousands killed by Quds forces. This has only driven the resistance underground. A key component of revolt/revolution is when the population sees no recourse to change policies/leadership, the only other option is violence. This election will do nothing but continue to throw gasoline on the unrest of the Iranian population.
N Korea -
NK is between a rock and a hard place. Economic sanctions by the west combined with the closure of the entire border with China have ravaged the economy and people. Discontent has risen as well, with various NK diplomats abroad being summoned back on charges of espionage and anti govt activities. Kim has kept a very low profile recently, with public appearances between Jan 1 and Feb 16 - the fewest of his career since 2012. Speculation is rising as to why. Also of note, the aggressive short range missile ‘tests’ have ceased for the past month or so. Something is going on, but what is uncertain at this time.
CW2 -
Dissatisfaction in blue state coming from the strongly red, rural areas of those states is manifesting itself in a growing movement to separate into separate states or join neighboring red states. Separate state initiatives such as Jefferson (California) and Liberty (eastern Washington) now see red Virginia counties looking towards West Virginia and now eastern Oregon/N. Ca looking to join Idaho. The Red/Blue chasm is extreme in these areas as the Marxist/liberal urban centers increasing impingement on the rights and business of the rural areas of their states. For these red area, peaceful separation is the goal, but as increasingly onerous progressiveness/Marxism spreads out from the urban dominant centers, such a separation may not be very peaceful - as evidenced by the actions of red Virginia counties/cities.
In one victory, Virginia’s legislature failed to pass a law essentially banning nearly all semi-automatic rifles. One small victory, but the legislature has passed a half dozen other laws that strip rights away. These laws will come into effect in July - the next marker date for red county Virginia resistance.