Very busy lately, but still monitoring things. Here’s whats on my radar today
Wuhan Virus -
Still high numbers, but there are reports of falling numbers of new cases in China, suggesting the epidemic has peaked. WHO director Ghebreyesus warns the potential trend “must be interpreted very cautiously”, indeed with the very strong evidence of China hiding the numbers can any number be trusted. Most recent numbers I’ve come across 75,129 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide, including 2,007 fatalities .
Global expansion of infections after these many weeks does not appear to be out of control. One recent number has 827 cases in 26 countries with 5 deaths (0.6% mortality rate versus 2-3% in China).
Secondary affects from China’s massive quarantines still ripple out from closed factories and supplies to other countries, causing slowdowns and shut downs there. Many nations are concerned that this could cause a major world recession. Some in the US are finally waking up to the reality of just how MUCH the US imports from China - in this instance prescription medicines and other medical supplies/equipment.
Israel -
Much of the attention is focused on the pending 3d election. Pretty much the standard fare of Hamas et al sending IED balloons and a few rockets/mortars across the border with IAF blowing up things for real. Plus threats and insults from both sides. Rumors that PIJ may seize the relative “calm” between Israel and Hamas to stir up more trouble. Time will tell if Hamas will be able to keep PIJ under their thumb.
Syria/Turkey -
Turkish military efforts to stop Syria/Russia in the Aleppo area have failed. The operation cleared a main highway (M5) allowing resupply and rapid reinforcement of pro-Syria forces. The assault puts additional pressure on the Idlib Provence. Turkey sees stability in the Idlib Provence essential to its security of its southern border with Syria. Given the Syrian/Russian refusal to follow an earlier agreement to halt further assaults, pressure is rising on Turkey to respond more directly and militarily to the advance.
Iran -
Parliamentary elections are coming in three days. The expected turnout is less than 20% as most if not all recognize that only the candidates that are loyal to the clerical dictatorship are allowed to run; past results haven’t improved their economy and quality of life. Major public protests have subsided in recent weeks, with thousands killed by Quds forces. This has only driven the resistance underground. A key component of revolt/revolution is when the population sees no recourse to change policies/leadership, the only other option is violence. This election will do nothing but continue to throw gasoline on the unrest of the Iranian population.
N Korea -
NK is between a rock and a hard place. Economic sanctions by the west combined with the closure of the entire border with China have ravaged the economy and people. Discontent has risen as well, with various NK diplomats abroad being summoned back on charges of espionage and anti govt activities. Kim has kept a very low profile recently, with public appearances between Jan 1 and Feb 16 - the fewest of his career since 2012. Speculation is rising as to why. Also of note, the aggressive short range missile ‘tests’ have ceased for the past month or so. Something is going on, but what is uncertain at this time.
CW2 -
Dissatisfaction in blue state coming from the strongly red, rural areas of those states is manifesting itself in a growing movement to separate into separate states or join neighboring red states. Separate state initiatives such as Jefferson (California) and Liberty (eastern Washington) now see red Virginia counties looking towards West Virginia and now eastern Oregon/N. Ca looking to join Idaho. The Red/Blue chasm is extreme in these areas as the Marxist/liberal urban centers increasing impingement on the rights and business of the rural areas of their states. For these red area, peaceful separation is the goal, but as increasingly onerous progressiveness/Marxism spreads out from the urban dominant centers, such a separation may not be very peaceful - as evidenced by the actions of red Virginia counties/cities.
In one victory, Virginia’s legislature failed to pass a law essentially banning nearly all semi-automatic rifles. One small victory, but the legislature has passed a half dozen other laws that strip rights away. These laws will come into effect in July - the next marker date for red county Virginia resistance.
On my radar today
Wuhan Virus -
New counts coming out indicate that the virus is gaining a foot hold in both S Korea and Japan. SK has reportedly increased its alert status to Red and is encouraging 2.5 million residents of one southeastern city (Daegu) to remain at home.
In Iran, road closures and isolation of areas around Qom and Tehran are being reported due to detected infections in a containment effort.
Syria/Turkey -
Turkey’s President Erdogan on Wednesday threatened a full-scale military invasion of the war torn province after the Syrian Army and its Russian ally refused to halt their ongoing offensive. Yesterday, Turkey requested NATO declare a no fly zone over the area. Nothing happened - thanks to Turkey burning bridges. This could potentially place Turkey and Russia force on force. This morning, reports are coming that Turkish units were specifically targeted by airstrikes carried out by either Russia or Syrian aircraft. Also claims by Syrian military sources that they destroyed 3 Turkish tanks overnight. Meanwhile, more Turkish armor and support equipment is being funneled into the Idlib area, with strong rumors of a counter attack pending. The potential for things getting out of control are escalating.
CW2 -
The Nevada Democrat debates revealed the depth of the candidates desire for Marxism/Communism. This reflects the hard left plunge of the Democrats over the years - one that JFK wouldn’t have recognized except to call it out as unamerican. There is a short fuze on the left and that fuze could bring an explosion depending on the triggering mechanism.