Threat Matrix 2020

Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.

Will the world see the Light next week, or willingly turn to deeper darkness?

Wuhan Virus -
Britain being isolated as countries stop all flights to/from. The new strain now in India - not good news. Dr Anjan Trikha, AIIMS on new Covid strain found in UK: “The mutation was anticipated by virologists. But this mutation seems to be more virulent (more severe i its effects). But the unusual thing is the new variant was first detected in September. In November it made up around a quarter of cases in London. This reached nearly two-thirds of cases in mid-December. It was reportedly in the neighborhood of 70% more infectious. Londoners scrambled to leave the city before today’s lockdown.

First shots of the Moderna vaccine should happen today. The expert panel advising the CDC has put people 75 and older and essential workers like firefighters, teachers and grocery store workers next in line for COVID-19 shots

Economy -
Some researchers suggest that wuhan has negatively impacted the US economy by the tune of $5 Trillion.

McConnell announced yesterday that a relief deal had been reached. Deal includes a $600 payment to individuals

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

The president’s legal team on Sunday filed a new petition with the Supreme Court asking to reverse a trio of decisions from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court easing some of the state’s election rules related to signature verification, Election Day observation and mail-in ballot declarations.

I caution that there is a lot of misinformation (deliberate and misguided) in regards to actions / reports related to the the legal and potential constitutional actions. Don’t believe everything you read on the internet, verify all .

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
Generally quiet, though both sides are examining what might happen before Jan 20 and planning accordingly.

Strategic Developments -
Indicators that the Nimitz group is soon to transit the Straits of Hormuz back into the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman.

Brexit Turmoil -
Reports that 94% of fish poached from British territorial waters end up in the EU. One of many sticking points for a separation agreement.

Iraq -
The U.S. Embassy confirms rockets targeting the International Zone resulted in the engagement of Embassy defensive systems. There was some minor damage on the Embassy compound but no injuries or casualties. It had been quiet there for a while, time will tell if the Iranian backed militias have been given a longer leash to resume harassment attacks. Two launchers with six rounds each were found abandoned by Iraqi officials.

Wuhan Virus -
More than 30 nations have slammed their doors shut to British travel, but the consensus is that the more rapidly spreading mutated wuhan virus has already penetrated countries globally. Because it is so contagious scientists say that it will likely out compete the other strains and become the dominant strain globally. There are two key mutations that are causing a tremendous amount of concern -

1. The first apparently makes it much easier for humans to catch the virus. this mutation called N501Y alters the most important part of the spike, known as the “receptor-binding domain”. This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body’s cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.
2. The second key mutation could potentially be even more dangerous, because it may make “antibodies from the blood of survivors less effective at attacking the virus”.

Vaccine pushers are saying that the current vaccines just coming out will be effective against this new strain, but that remains to be seen.

Coumo calls for a halt of flights from Britain, Fauci calls such proposals “Draconian”. Fauci also said the new strain is likely already in the US.

Fauci is also in the news having said that the vaccines only deal with the symptoms, and does not block the virus. Wait . . . What?

Economy -
An NPR report states that 33% of U.S. adults said they are having trouble paying for everyday costs. “Even some households making above $200,000 are straining to pay basic expenses,” the report notes. For many families, it isn’t just the pandemic that has put them in dire straits. More than 33% of Americans said they couldn’t cover an unexpected $400 expense a year ago.

Relief check can be expected to be sent out next week at the earliest following the passage of the latest relief bill.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

More Senators and Congressmen are lining up to challenge electoral votes, challenging McConnell’s edict not to do so.
More talk of USSC challenges, but it is increasingly apparent that the delay tactics of the left are succeeding and the window of challenge is rapidly closing.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
In a preview of the next four years, the ATF has started to raid companies that make 80% lowers and are now looking to ban/regulate stabilizing braces. The head of ATF Deputy Director Regina Lombardo admitted back in November that she has had communication with the Biden team. After this “communication” which the Biden team put forth their desire for aggressive anti-gun action, the ATF started its actions. Both the lowers and braces are legal under current regulations, so the current actions are questionable, but unless someone reigns them in, the scheme for extra-legislative banning / gun controls will leap forward.

Another front on the CW2 spectrum warmed up yesterday. During a special session of the Oregon legislature called by Democrat Gov. Kate Brown, several hundred protesters descended on the building to attempt to enter. Several police agencies responded with officers in riot gear, MRAPs, and pepper. Patriot groups organized a gathering to protest the continued draconian lockdowns across the state, as well as the unconstitutional legislative session that excluded public oversight. Oregon currently has a supermajority of democrats in both houses of the legislature and is generally a rubber stamp for Brown, who has extended the current “emergency” into March 2021. One of the agenda items of the special session was to consider extending the state’s emergency eviction moratorium and provide funds to tenants and landlords.

Strategic Developments -
Yesterday I thought that the Nimitz was executing a transit of the Straits of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. US Navy has announced that the USS Georgia (with special ops team) and the cruisers USS Port Royal and USS Philippine Sea entered the Persian Gulf. The Nimitz is currently located off the horn of Africa.

China -
In at least three provinces in China, authorities have ordered limits on electricity use, saying there could be shortages of coal, The New York Times reports. At the same time, Chinese authorities vehemently deny that the potential shortages have had anything to do with the diplomatic spat with Australia, which has turned into a true energy trade war, with China banning imports of coal from one of its major suppliers - Australia. China has been upset with Australia siding with the US and other nations in the region in opposition to Chinese aggressive actions in disputed sea regions of the South China Sea.

Russia -
Moscow has been pretty quiet of late since the cyber hack was uncovered and is currently being linked to Russian government agents.

Israel -
Talks with Turkey on establishing full diplomatic relations appear to be on and that an agreement could come sometime in March. MY OPINION - Turkey is a scorpion in this, they want to be THE islamic caliphate, the restored Ottoman Empire which included Israel. As revealed during the Armenian / Azeri conflict, Israel has supplied military hardware that Turkey used during that conflict.

It’s official now, Israel is headed to elections on March 23d following the failure of a bill to prevent it. This follows as a result of demands made by Gantz.

Israel openly announced the transit of a missile sub thru the Suez Canal with the destination being the Persian Gulf.

Wuhan Virus -
Chilean base in Antarctica hit with wuhan. 35 are reported to be infected.

According to the CDC, as of December 18, 2020, 3,150 people who were vaccinated against COVID-19 became “unable to perform normal daily activities”. That’s a percentage of 2.79% people who unable to perform normal daily activities after being vaccinated for COVID-19.

Economy -
President Trump turned the wuhan relief bill on its head yesterday by demanding a $2000/person payment, versus the $600. Pelosi almost immediately endorsed the call. On both sides of the political spectrum, criticism has erupted and there is still a threat that Trump will veto it.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
In an interesting turn of events, Detroit has countersued Black Lives Matter umbrella group Detroit Will Breathe. This BLM shell organization sued Detroit, alleging police abuse of force during the George Floyd riots in the city this past summer. A judge granted a restraining order in September but the city responded with a countersuit, claiming that the Black Lives Matter group organized a “civil conspiracy” to riot, destroy property, and disturb the peace.

China -
See Russia below

Russia -
Russian and Chinese bombers flew a joint mission that also caused S Korean fighters to scramble when they encroached on SK’s air defense zone. Russia has sought to develop stronger ties with China as its relations with the West sank to post-Cold War lows over Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, accusations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and other issues.

Israel -
Parliament has dissolved, Israelis bracing for the fourth election in two years.

Tomorrow is Christmas and I don’t plan to post an update unless something major happens. Merry Christmas

Wuhan Virus -
Over 1 million Americans have received vaccinations so far, the most in the world. Administration states US is on track to meet its 20 million goal by Jan 9.

Viruses mutate, we’ve known that all along with flu viruses and vaccines. The flu shot is more times than not, ineffective for the current version of the virus because it mutated from the form the vaccine was designed to combat. Recent mutations documented in Britain have raise concerns. But another new strain in S Africa is raising more red flags. The new mutant, called 501.V2, was announced in Cape Town last Friday and is believed to be a more extreme variant than Britain’s new Covid strain which has plunged millions into miserable Christmas lockdowns. 501.v2 is reported to be more easily caught by the younger population. Lethality is still being evaluated.

Israel is going to impose a 3d - 14 day lockdown to try to control the spread of the virus.

Rational Ground, a “clearinghouse of COVID-19 data trends run by a grassroots group of data analysts, computer scientists, and actuaries,” conducted an analysis on all 50 states, dividing them between those with mask mandates and those without. After studying the data from a 229-day period, the evidence is that mask mandates don’t work.

Some are demanding Trump receive the vaccine. However Fauci stated Monday that “There is a reason for him not to, Judy, because he received a passive transfer of monoclonal antibody when he was sick,” Fauci replied. “And that makes the level of antibody very high in your body, which can interfere with the efficacy of a vaccine.” SO LET ME GET THIS RIGHT - Even though you’ve had the disease you still have to be vaccinated because of why? The flies against the ‘science’ of the issue. If you can get the disease after first contracting and recovering from it - what good is a vaccination? So if natural immunity doesn’t work - what good is an ‘artificial’ immunity?

Dr. Deborah Birx, has resigned, reportedly after receiving blow back over her hypocrisy after declaring that anyone who traveled over the Thanksgiving weekend should assume they were infected with COVID-19 and should limit celebrations to “your immediate household,” traveled to her vacation home in Delaware during Thanksgiving, accompanied by three generations of her family from two households.

Economy -
The demand for $2000/person stimulus and the threat of vetoing the porkulus ‘relief’ bill - which has 3x as much money being spent in other countries than in the country (roughly 200 billion in direct stimulus vs 600 billion to countries and pork projects) - still causing ripples. The swamp seemed to think there would be no problem - well a majority of Americans see otherwise. Vetoing the Porkulus also could cause the govt to go into shutdown. The 2.3 Trillion dollar bill incorporates 892 Billion for wuhan stimulus. It must be signed by Monday to prevent govt shutdown.

One plan I agree with came from Rep Omar - pass a clean $2000/person bill. Works for me - sign that bill, veto the other. However, the leftists are going to maneuver that effort to fuel their push for recurring monthly payments — essentially universal basic income (UBI)

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
American’s purchased approximately 21 million firearms in 2020, up about 73% from 2019. Sales cross party lines with many democrats buying to protect themselves from the BLM/Antifa violence. November 2020 was the 11th consecutive month of record background checks for gun sales.

BLM/Antifa are fundraising to support travel to DC for the inauguration on Jan 20th. These groups are also calling for practice “rapid response” for actions on that day elsewhere. No announced plans for the Right on that day, however, a flyer calling for armed march a few days earlier is floating around and may be a false flag propaganda effort, monitoring that.

Strategic Developments -
President Trump veto’d the defense authorization bill yesterday, objecting to numerous provisions in the bill. Based on votes, congress currently appears to have enough to override it. The congress is planning to return on Dec 28th if the defense bill is veto’d. That is the same day govt funding is currently due to end if he vetos the Porkulus bill.

Cyber Warfare -
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued an advisory to American businesses concerning the use of Chinese data services and systems. Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf warned, “For far too long, U.S. networks and data have been exposed to cyber threats based in China which are using that data to give Chinese firms an unfair competitive advantage in the global marketplace.”

China -
National congress has introduced a bill (rubber stamped to pass) to reduce food waste and ‘over eating’. As I’ve noted here, China’s food supplies have been hammered this year - wuhan virus, record flooding, swine diseases and locust infestations. Earlier this year China has been trying to corner all rice markets as well as soy. The success has been limited due to sanctions put in place by many countries. China’s efforts have already had an impact by increasing the cost of these and other food items in the US and rest of the world. While not at official famine levels, the introduction of this bill indicates sufficient concern at the leadership level of the need to start imposing sanctions/personal behavior changes now versus later.

Israel -
The forcing of another election, plus US election turmoil, may put the brakes on any further movement of peace accords between Israel and other arab nations.

Brexit Turmoil -
New optimism as both sides pushed through finishing touches on a trade deal to advert an economic meltdown between UK and EU on New Years Day.

Iran -
“Dud” rockets from the recent attack on the Green Zone have Iranian markings on them - indicating the source. President Trump gave “Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.” He also tweeted photos of the rockets. The US has already removed non essential personnel from the Embassy and is now considering closing it around the anniversary of the Soleimani killing (Jan 3d).

According to reports IRGC Quds Forces Commander Esmail Ghaani was in Baghdad, yesterday “for several hours”. No word on what was discussed but likely either trying to put a lid on actions against the US, or cranking them up.

MY OBSERVATIONS - There are no real significant military movements on our part into the region other than the openly announced arrival of the nuclear submarine. The Nimitz is still very close off the horn of Africa and can respond quickly. There are still bombers in the region as well. This appears to be a clear warning not to get froggy, but is one notch down from getting ready to hit. But then, with the great flexibility the submarine gives (cruse missiles) and both local based and US based bombers grant, as well as other assets in the region, there is plenty of big stick if necessary.

Iraq -
See Iran above.

Turkey -
Greece could overtake Turkey as the leading NATO air power in the eastern Mediterranean. Greece is receiving F35 jets that were initially scheduled for Turkey until they bought the S-400 SAM system from Russia. Greece also has over 100 F16 fighters, and its pilots are reportedly far better trained than their Turkish counterparts. US is also considering moving its assets from Incirlik Turkey to Iraklion Air Base in Crete - one of the largest in the region. This switch will increasingly place Turkey on the periphery of NATO and European favor, challenging Turkey’s goals of reestablishment of the Ottoman Empire and control of resources in the eastern Med.

Hope everyone had a Happy Christmas.
Take a day off and everything blows up.

Wuhan Virus -
The WHO removed naturally acquired immunity from its website. This is basically a step to remove the idea of “Herd Immunity” and force immunizations.
Fauci has basically admitted AGAIN that he has lied about herd immunity, now stating that closer to 90% of the population needs to have been infected before it kicks in. In part this was his effort to get Americans to get the vaccine. He tried to justify his lies by saying Americans weren’t ready for the truth (his ‘truth’-IMHO)

US is requiring negative wuhan virus test results for all airline passengers returning from Britain. This rule is to take effect Monday designed to combat new variant of virus believed to be more contagious. However, since that strain has been circulating for a couple months in Britain, this is more like closing the barn door after the horses have escaped. This may lead to more efforts to create a wuhan “passport”.

Los Angeles County scientists have begun to test samples of the coronavirus from local patients to determine if a new, more contagious strain that is circulating in Britain has arrived, as some officials believe is likely amid a major surge of infections. If the variant is in LA county, you can bet it is already well established throughout the rest of the country and has been for a while.

Research indicates that about 20% of the adult population has developed pandemic-related mental health disorders. That is a greater percentage than has been infected by the wuhan virus. Findings published in the journal medRxiv*.

Economy -
U.S. retail sales rose 3.0% during this year’s expanded holiday shopping season from Oct. 11 to Dec. 24, a report by Mastercard Inc said on Saturday, powered by a pandemic-driven shift toward online shopping. Online sales take away from sales at brick and mortar facilities indicating that small business may not have fared as well as this report indicates.

The fight continues over the continuing resolution to fund the govt thru next year, bundled with it is the wuhan stimulus scheme. The President continues to push for a $2000 payment and nationwide anger over the amount of money going out of country that should be spent here.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

Huge money pouring into the Georgia senate runoffs. It seems to me to already be another dumpster fire and our republic is in jeopardy.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
Colon Powell is reported to be urging military officials to recall Flynn and put him on trial for sedition.

DHS has issued a warning of increased violence as the Georgia Senate runoff elections get closer. They are saying that this election, combined with the continued appeals of the presidential results could cause increased violence. Though the DHS didn’t identify them by name - examples of previous violence was all conducted by BLM/Antifa and related groups.

Strategic Developments -
Yesterday, significant USAF activity was noted in the Persian gulf region. There are a couple dozen air refueling tankers stationed in the region, so it is not unusual for several to be airborne at one time. However yesterday air traffic observers noted that as many as 20 were airborne and operating at the same time. Probably a drill in the event there is a strike against Iran, but it was a significant event never the less. This builds speculation that a hard strike on Iran is being prepared. Should be noted that these aircraft operated with open source transponders operating. If this was the real MaCoy they would be flying dark.

Terror -
A RV contains a bomb exploded on Christmas day at about 6:30 AM local. Police were initially called to the area with a call of “shots fired”. Police then became suspicious of the RV and called a bomb squad. About 15 minutes prior to there explosion there was a recorded message broadcast warning of the impending explosion. Three were hurt. There are late rumors of human remains in the blast area. A substantial award, currently at $315,000, is being offered for information on who did this. There are sure to be enough remains of the RV to identify the owner.

Explosion took an ATT telecom center out of service causing phone, internet & 911 center outages across middle Tennessee & Kentucky. It also apparently caused flights out of Nashville airport to be stopped due to telecommunications issues associated with explosion.

The Nashville mayor was interviewed later in the day and was noted to be laughing about the incident.

MY OBSERVATION - Similar to the police assessment - this was a terrorist incident. I’m torn as to whether or not the target was responding police (made more unlikely with the taped announcement to clear out prior to the explosion), or some other element given it was parked outside the ATT building that has disrupted so much communications. The pre-blast warning has a parallel with some of the IRA bombings where they used to call the news before the bomb went off to give civilians time to clear if it was a civilian target. One last possibility is that this is a False Flag to implicate a patriot group for a biden administration crack down - as 0bama targeted groups on the right as terrorists in his administration, this is just the planning for 0bama 2.0. I am currently inclined to believe the target was the ATT building, given its regionally significant operations for communications in the area. The “Who” of the matter is still not clear to me.

Taiwan -
Japan has stated that Taiwan is the “red line” in the region and that any Chinese take over would endanger the rest of the region.

Israel -
IAF struck an Iranian/Hezbollah SSM construction facility in Masyaf, Syria. The facility is believed to have been used to mix and cast components for rocket engines and warheads.

Friday night (Local) rockets were launched from Gaze towards Ashkelon, Southern Israel. Not know if the attack is related to the earlier IAF airstrike in Syria. Hamas related rocket production and other facilities were targeted, many with large secondary explosions.

Israeli analysts are evaluating the next attack sponsored by Iran against it. Israel is monitoring Iran’s movement in the region and expects that the Iranian threat will likely come from Iraq and Yemen, IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Hidai Zilberman told the Saudi news website Elaph. MY OBSERVATION - By using proxies, Iran has deflected some attention in the past. Using Iraq and Yemen to strike Israel (a tactic already tested against Saudi Arabia this year) forces Israel to expend resources to address this threat, and reduces resources used to monitor Syria and Lebanon.

Brexit Turmoil -
Britain and the EU reached an agreement Thursday on Brexit. However, the British economy will still take serious hits as the transition occurs. I don’t expect the EU to execute the agreements ‘fairly’ but exploit loopholes.

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.

There are rumors of Iranian air defense units being deployed to uranium enrichment sites in Fordo and Natanz. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif today warned that an attack could trigger a conflict in the region “far worse” than the Iraq War.

Iraq -
Situation is tense in Bagdad following the arrest of Iranian-backed Asa’ib (AAH) militia leader Hussam Al-Azirjawi in an anti-terror sweep. He was reportedly was handed over to a guarantor, reportedly Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi later in the day. The operation was in response to rocket attacks against the Green Zone, many of the rockets missed widely and impacted civilian areas. This goes back to the inference that Iran doesn’t want to poke the bear (US) prior to Jan 20th and may be willing to sacrifice the AAH in order to keep America ‘calm’. This following President Trump’s warning to Iran.

There has also been a document released that reveals a plan by Iranian backed militias to target a US base in Bagdad on the first anniversary of the targeting of Soleimani. Legitimacy of the document is questionable at the moment. The document originator is the Iraqi military. SPECULATION - Perhaps the release corresponds with the anti-terror sweep of yesterday as well as a warning to those militias that their plans are not as secret as they think.

Still working on a recap for 2020 and developing categories to monitor for 2021

Wuhan Virus -
Kalifornia has the strictest lockdown/control measures in the nation, yet has the highest case count in the nation as well. Some are trying to blame Thanksgiving, but the numbers are not supportive of that as a cause. Subtle clue that lockdowns are not the answer?

Disputes among the ‘elites’ as to who should get priority for vaccinations. At the forefront are complaints that politicians and public officials seem to have jumped the line to get their over health care workers.

Results of two recent studies show that antibodies the human body produces in response to COVID-19 infection make it very unlikely a person will be reinfected with the virus for as long as six months and possibly longer.
(https://www.foxnews.com/health/new-studies-covid-19-less-likely-reinfected)

Economy -
The President continues to refuse to sign the Porkulus bill containing wuhan ‘relief’ (‘relief’ for everyone but Americans). Unemployment benefits under the previous bill are set to expire by the end of the month.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

President Trump continues to call for a rally at the capitol on Jan 6.

The Georgia runoffs are now the most expensive races in US history as millions of dollars pour into the state.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.

Strategic Developments -
OSINT observers note that there is a continued uptick in air tanker activity in the Persian Gulf region. Some are trying to link it to increased counter terror support to Iraqi forces.

Terror -
FBI says they have identified Anthony Quinn Warner as the owner of the RV. FBI agents entered his home yesterday and collected evidence. Further information indicates that the human remains found at the blast site may belong to Warner. Law enforcement say that records show the Nashville bombing suspect’s late father worked for BellSouth, a telecommunications company that merged into AT&T in 2006, before his death in July 2011 at age 78. As far as motive, internet rumor suggests Warner was paranoid about 5G spying on Americans.
Networks are still down due to the attack, in part to a flare up of the initial fire yesterday. Cell and internet remains down over a large area.
In an interesting twist, according to the DailyMail, Warner signed the property away via a quitclaim deed to Lisa Swing, a 29-year-old woman living in Los Angeles, for $0.00, according to county records. Quinn’s signature does not appear on the November 25th transfer and she said she knew absolutely nothing about it.

MY OBSERVATIONS - This is becoming less of a terror incident and more a suicide. There are a flurry of conspiracy stories based on bogus information. One being a missile strike, another being that a car exploded, not the RV. Nether are valid IMHO due to released photos showing the source of the blast being the RV and lack of other features that would support these ‘theories’. This is developing into a scenario where he killed himself - and the clear evidence supports that so far.

On cue, terror supporting CAIR is demanding that biden dismantle US counter terrorism operations.

China -
CCP in the state run “Global Times” said that the world should use its vaccine against wuhan adding that to do otherwise is an explicit example of racism.

Israel -
Follow on evaluation of Israel’s recent counter strike in Gaza indicates that they successfully hit a rocket production facility. Videos posted of the strike show a very substantial secondary explosion. Sources suggest that this site was upgraded to improve Hamas’ rocket capabilities.

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.

Iraq -
Iraqi PM Kadhimi sends delegation for unexpected Tehran visit. The visit comes after gov’t standoff with Iran-backed Shia militias and recent rocket attacks on the Green Zone by the same militia groups. These militias are funded and essentially commanded by Iran. Iraq is under pressure by the US to stop attacks or we will pull out, leaving Iraq essentially naked before Iran and radicals.

Still working on a recap for 2020 and developing categories to monitor for 2021

Wuhan Virus -
CDC issued a new guidance stating that people with underlying health conditions can receive a coronavirus vaccine.
The guidance explains that “adults of any age with certain underlying medical conditions are at increased risk for severe illness from the virus that causes COVID-19.” This new guidance is due to an unexpected number of significant reactions to those given the vaccine. However, how good is this when despite the start of distribution of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, the CDC recommends that people who get vaccinated should continue to follow current coronavirus health and safety protocols, such as wearing a mask, practicing social distancing and avoiding crowds. Is the “cure” becoming worse than the disease?

Reflecting US concerns, Europeans are increasingly unlikely to accept the vaccine given the threat of unknown complications that can be a result.

Global medical community is scrambling to evaluate the new, more infectious mutation of the wuhan virus. Mutations are not uncommon among viruses - there are reportedly 1,000 mutations already identified with wuhan, it is that this one is becoming the dominant strain by its rapid spreading ability. So far medical investigators say the new strain’s lethality has not been enhanced, or that the new vaccines are ineffective - but studies move forward.

Remember, this is a China study, but an evaluation of 10 million Chinese indicates that asymptomatic spread of the wuhan virus was essentially non-existent - calls to doubt claims currently being made by the CDC and others.

When the argument is made for following the “science” for the wuhan pandemic, the man most commonly cited it Fauci. In a recent CNN interview, he admits to “moving the goal posts” on herd immunity based on POLLING - GET THAT, NO SCIENCE BUT POLLING! The numbers he cited he called a ‘guesstimate’.

Economy -
Trump signed the Porkulus bill yesterday after stating that congress will pass an amendment to increase payments from $600 to $2000 per person. We will see today if Pelosi/McConnell will honor their “promise” to bring a clean vote on th $2000 payment to the floor today. He also invoked the Impoundment Control Act of 1974. The Act provides that, “whenever the President determines that all or part of any budget authority will not be required to carry out the full objectives or scope of programs for which it is provided, or that such budget authority should be rescinded for fiscal policy or other reasons (including termination of authorized projects or activities for which budget authority has been provided), the President shall transmit to both Houses of Congress a special message” describing the amount to be reserved, the relevant accounts, the reasons for the rescission, and the economic effects of the rescission. 2 U.S.C. § 683. How far that goes to stop pork spending is uncertain - especially if biden goes into the WH.

Mortgage rates continue to fall, now at a 16th record low of the year. But with no job how can one apply. Potential boon for refinancing though.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.

Strategic Developments -
The Harry S. Truman CSG is in the North Arabian Sea and within the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. This deployment is the Truman Strike Group‘s second in two years. This adds serious naval force projection if Iran gets froggy. The location of the Nimitz CSG is not posted, but is involved in an exercise off the east coast of Africa, last location near the horn of Africa.
OBSERVATION - OSINT hid the deployment of the Truman until it was in the Arabian Sea. The location of the Nimitz as well. This tells me that they don’t want Iran to have early warning of the CSG’s locations. The Nimitz can quickly return to the Arabian sea/Persian gulf region in a matter of days if needed.

Terror -
The remains of 63-year-old Anthony Quinn Warner were identified at the blast site yesterday. Investigation continues to try to find a motive. Other than neighbors suggesting he was a bit “odd” (am observation that can apply to just about everyone), nothing really stands out other than the 5G paranoia as the leading motive. Other pieces of information have come out. He had an IT background and was employed installing security systems. A couple months ago he quit installations, installed a wooden fence around his property and transferred ownership of his property to a Californian woman (who’s link still isn’t known). These actions are common for someone contemplating suscide - getting things in some sort of order, but still leaves a lot of questions. This also predates a number of conspiracy theories out there.

Communications / Internet services continue to be disrupted in the region as repairs are in progress. This was a major node in the system.

MY OBSERVATION - Some may object, but there has been a lot of tinfoil floating around out there about massive conspiracies surrounding this event. Let me address some of these
1. The white car was the source - later security camera videos clearly show that the RV was what exploded, not the car and the blast pattern confirms
2. A missile hit and created a hypobaric bomb explosion. Commenting on the blast, Michael Yon, experienced combat reporter who’s seen dozens of VBIED results in Iraq commented today that this was “averaged-sized” VBIED. Additionally blast evidence doesn’t correlate with a rocket strike on the RV either.
3. This building was suppose to be used to examine dominion voting machines. These buildings are designed to primarily handle communications traffic, they are not configured to do much else. Because of the sensitivity of the site, the buildings are commonly reinforced to protect from such potential events as this. Older buildings, like the one in Nashville, can only be reinforces so much. There are many other, better, locations that any dominion review would be conducted at. A suicide bomber doesn’t match this scenario. IMHO.
4. NSA was the target - again, a suicide doesn’t fit the narrative or evidence for an NSA strike.

Then some nut job was arrested yesterday in Rutherford County, Tenn., on Sunday, for allegedly playing “audio similar to what was heard” before a vehicle exploded in downtown Nashville on Christmas Day. No explosives were found in the truck.

China -
India and Vietnam sent warships to transit the South China Sea which China claims as its own.

On Monday, a Chinese court sentenced a lawyer-turned-citizen-journalist, 37-year-old Zhang Zhan, who traveled to Wuhan to report on COVID-19, to four years in jail. Authorities first detained her in May after her livestream reporting in Wuhan. The government charged her with “picking quarrels and provoking trouble” for her reporting.

Israel -
Israel / Turkish negotiations hanging up. Turkey views Israel’s policy towards palestine as unacceptable. Israel says Turkey must end support for Hamas. Israeli diplomatic sources said Sunday. “I don’t really believe he’s being honest,” the source said. “We need to see actions.”

Hamas confirmed that Israel destroyed a key rocket manufacturing plant, which was of high importance to the terrorist group,” a senior Hamas official tells Israel Hayom. Israel attacked the site in response to rocket fire at southern Israel.

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.
Threats are increasing as the anniversary day approaches.

Lebanon -
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah: Sayyed Nasrallah: “The Lebanese resistance has twice as many precision missiles as it had in the past year”. Iran has been working hard to retrofit and design new rockets with GPS guidance systems, versus the older ballistic transjectory methods of unguided rockets. Israel has been very active targeting facilities in Syria and interdicting shipments trying to be brought into Lebanon from Syria to facilitate updating the rockets. It is very likely that some of the necessary materials have leaked through, so that some of Hezebollah’s arsenal is now guidable.
Nasrallah went on in his speech - “The promised retaliation for the martyrdom of our martyr Ali Mohsen (killed in an IAF airstrike in Syria a few months ago) is coming.”, hence the reference to the missiles. Nasrallah was sheltering in his bunker, amid fears that he may be next on a US-Israeli hit list. MY OBSERVATION - The day Hezbollah launches any of those rocket will be a day when Lebanon is a smoldering heap. Iran will be leveled as well. Israel has the capability to intercept the first waves but continued attacks will eventually overwhelm their defenses and Israel will be forces to more severe means of counter strikes.

I’ll post a 2020 recap tomorrow.

Wuhan Virus -
5K out of the first 215K recipients of the vaccine in the US reported some kind of “adverse health impact event”, which could be anything that seriously limits an individual’s ability to function and/or complete daily tasks. These events should be severe enough to require medical attention, but exact details are unclear.

Lawmakers in the District of Columbia (D.C.) have passed a bill allowing children to be vaccinated without parental consent or even their parents’ knowledge. The “Minor Consent for Vaccinations Amendment Act,” B23-017, was passed in D.C. last month. The bill that permits a child aged 11 years or older “to consent to receive a vaccine where the vaccination is recommended by the United States Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. “It also establishes that if a minor is able to comprehend the need for, the nature of, and any significant risks inherent in the medical care then informed consent is established.”

In week 51 of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “FluView” data monitoring system, 36 positive flu tests were documented. This marks a steep decrease from last year’s total of 7,703 cases during the same time frame. The positivity rate has sharply declined this calendar year as only 0.10% of tests taken this year came back positive. The five-year average is 15.80% positive. The big question is how much is being diagnosed as wuhan virus?

Economy -
House passed the $2000 payment bill, waiting on the senate. The overall wuhan bill is still a piece of crap that the congress won’t make any effort to strip the pork out of.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.

BLM/Antifa elements have gone through some Portland neighborhoods and removed/destroyed residential cameras (Ring, Nest, etc). This is part of an ongoing strategy that began with their strict control of who video’s protests to protect their identity. This is also a harbinger of the preparation to conduct riots/protests in residential areas or targeted individuals at home in the near future.

Patriots following leftists have noted articles on how to commit sabotage being passed around on the inter webs. What may be a corollary, BNSF railroad has reported 41 attempts to sabotage railways in Washington State - mostly focused in an attempt to stop shipments of coal from reaching ports in WA this year (this has been an ongoing fight with the Gov of WA for years). The ‘environmentalists’ draw from anarchist stock and I would consider them to be part of the same BLM/Antifa bloc.

Note: A significant number of events being organized between both sides from now through Jan 20th. Each has a potential for significant violence. Be alert.

China -
Beijing has gone into “emergency response mode” to contain a new Covid-19 outbreak, which has been detected near Beijing International Capital Airport.

Israel -
Hamas and other terrorist groups are conducing a ‘joint’ operation in western Gaza that includes firing rockets into the sea.

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.

I’ll post a 2020 review of my initial concerns later today

Wuhan Virus -
WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan warns about the coronavirus vaccine, saying that there is “no evidence to be confident shots prevent transmission” and that people who receive the vaccine should continue wearing masks and following all social distancing and travel guidelines. “I don’t believe we have the evidence on any of the vaccines to be confident that it’s going to prevent people from actually getting the infection and therefore being able to pass it on.” This just begs the question - what good is the ‘vaccine’ then in the first place.

Economy -
Appeals court allows L.A. County dining ban to remain in place until at least February. This will certainly kill many more businesses and add to the So Cal economic meltdown.

After the House passed a clean $2000 amendment to porkulus, McConnell objected in the senate. McConnell wants to include two complaints the President made concerning Porkulus, lack of an investigation into election fraud and reworking laws that protect social media like twitter, FB, etc (Section 230) from lawsuits. McConnell is expected to released a new bill today to incorporate those items into the increased individual relief package.

Home prices increased the most in October at the fastest rate in six years. Probably driven by very low interest rates but there has also been a big demand from people leaving Kalifornia and the rest of the left coast, buying property often sight unseen and bidding wars jacking prices up. Thats what is being observed here in the American Redoubt anyway.

2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.

Election observers are predicting an extended period before either of the Georgia senate runoffs are determined.

CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.

Violence is still high in Portland, due mostly to the decrease in the police force and the release of criminals from prison and the lack of prosecution of those arrested. The riots have decimated the police department and the city leadership have only made matters worse.

Monitors of far left chat rooms note two items. 1 - Leftists are being urged to avoid direct, armed conflict, given their analysis of US counterinsurgency operational doctrines. They are encouraging each other to use other means of violence such as intimidation, assassinations, bombings, etc. 2 - The leftists are also looking to redefine themselves as revolutionaries and not protestors. The context being their ultimate goal of removing the US government no matter which party is in charge. This indicates unrest will continue even in the event of a Biden administration.

Strategic Developments /Deployments-
B52 bombers made a fly by of the Persian Gulf today. These fly byes have been very common this month and are likely a warning to Iran as the anniversary of Soleimani death approaches.

Terror -
It is being reported that 16 months ago, the Nashville bomber’s girlfriend reported to police that Warner was constructing bombs in the RV.

The FBI and local police are investigating what they say appears to be an “intentional attack” on the town’s gas service lines, Aspen Times reported. Officials discovered vandalism at three different gas line sites, in which environmental group messaging was found written on the pipes. The words “Earth First!” were found written on the vandalized gas pipes. Radical environmentalists have joined forces with leftist BLM/Antifa elements thru shared common causes.

China -
Chinese court jails 10 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists for up to three years. The combination of wuhan lockdowns in HK plus aggressive new laws passed in the absence of significant protests (due to wuhan) have pretty much put the final nails in the coffin of a free HK.

Beijing ratified an extradition treaty with Turkey that permits them to get their hands on Uyghur activists that have taken refuge in Turkey. Turkey has yet to ratify the treaty.

Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.

Iran’s Zafar 2 satellite has been completed and is ready for launch. However, commercial satellite imagery does not not yet show the usual signatures associated with an imminent launch. Zafar 1 failed in February to reach orbit. This is basically a step in developing an ICBM under the guise of a satellite.

Saudi Arabia -
(Reuters) -The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of 3,000 precision guided munitions to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in a deal valued at up to $290 million, the Pentagon said on Tuesday. The package would include 3,000 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb I (SDB I) munitions, containers, support equipment, spares and technical support. These munitions will increase Saudi effectiveness against Houti and serve as a deterrent against Iran. Biden has pledged to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

Yemen -
Unknown forces (probably Houthi) attacked the Aden Airport with rockets/mortars (some claim drones) after a plane carrying Yemeni government ministers arrived at the terminal. As many as 10 reported dead, many injured. One minister was reportedly killed, however the airliner was not directly hit. Besides the airliner, the air port lounge was also reportedly targeted.
MY OBSERVATION - It was reported that the plane was carrying the newly formed Yemen government - this looks like an attempted decapitation attack. Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since late 2014 mainly between the Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi-led Yemeni government and the Houthi armed movement, along with their supporters and allies.

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