Threat Matrix 2020

Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.

Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. On the good side, daily cases and deaths have clearly been decreasing since April 2, 2020. Better details here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3846402/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

President Trump gave the WHO 30 days to change its ways or it would lose funding permanently. 2018-2019 the US paid about 15.8% (236.9 million dollars in “assessed” payments and another 656.1 million in voluntary contributions) of the WHO’s budget.

President Trump revealed on Monday during a round-table with restaurant leaders in the White House’s State Dining Room—that he’s been taking the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine with a zinc supplement every day for about a week and a half to help prevent getting the coronavirus. Liberal heads then proceeded to explode across the nation, with Pelosi even calling the president ‘morbidly obese’.

Some 108 million people in China’s northeast region’s Jilin Provence are now cut off from using trains, and buses. Restrictions are increasing and the local populace is growing very worried about going into a multi month lockdown like what hit Wuhan.

Economy -
Many of the ‘permissions’ that restaurants will get in order to open is substantially reduced seating and customers being served. For most, those restrictions will cost the business more than staying closed, and many are going to do just that.

Food Supply -
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said this morning that the U.S. has “turned the corner” on meat production and that normal supplies should be resuming “very quickly.” Perdue expects to return to 85-90 percent production within days to weeks.

In South America, multiple countries are experiencing different stages of food rioting due to economic crashes from their respective lock downs. It should be noted that a common saying in the preparedness community is that America is only 9 meals away from such riots itself.

China -
The US Navy announced that at least seven submarines, and likely more — including all four Guam-based attack submarines, the San Diego-based USS Alexandria and multiple Hawaii-based vessels — were simultaneously conducting contingency operations at sea in the western Pacific. The announcement and operations appear to directed to counter China’s expansionism in the South China sea.

India/Pakistan -
Steady border skirmishes and exchange of fire. Monitoring for any signs of escalation beyond what is this nearly normal behavior.

Iran -
Iran still beating their chest daring the US to intercept its oil tankers en route to Venezuela. The first one is still a few days out.

Hong Kong -
The Daily Mail reports that another fight broke out in Hong Kong’s parliament. Pro-communist members have been pushing a measure that would criminalize “abuse” of the communist mainland’s national anthem. After the pro-democracy lawmakers were removed, as before, the pro-communist members voted for the legislation.

Israel -
The International Criminal Court (ICC), is renewing efforts to exercise jurisdiction over Palestinian Authority areas in the West Bank. The PA joined the treaty that created the court, but it doesn’t qualify as a sovereign state. SOS Pompeo after a visit to Israel stated that as such the ICC has no authority. Israel, not a member of the ICC, has chosen to disregard the efforts.

Reports today that Israel has stepped up its cyberdefenses in preparation for a potential cyber attack by Iran. Earlier, it is rumored that an Israeli cyber attack crippled a port in Iran, in response to Iran’s cyber attacks on Israeli water infrastructure.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Baker County Circuit Court Judge Matt Shirtcliff this morning issued a preliminary injunction declaring Gov. Kate Brown’s executive orders related to the coronavirus pandemic as “null and void.” This is a huge loss for Brown. Attorneys for the governor said they would file a motion seeking review of Shirtcliff’s decision by the Oregon Supreme Court. This is the same governor who fined a salon for opening and sent CPS to the owners home, threatening to remove her children because of her activism in the open up Oregon movement.

Interesting opinion article on Townhall reviews the possible reactions of Americans to a SECOND lockdown if there is a second wave of infections - remember we haven’t even gotten out of this first lockdown. The tyrannical edicts of democrat rulers has not aged well with many Americans as we exit this lock down, the Coumos, DeBlasios, Brown, Newsome, et al have lost the consent of the governed for this round and I doubt they will consent to a second lockdown.

https://townhall.com/columnists/patbuchanan/2020/05/19/will-americans-submit-to-a-second-lockdown-n2569036

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3846751/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

New Jersey, Michigan, California, Illinois, and a host of liberal run cities are annoucing that there will be no full scale reopening until a corona virus vaccine is ready. Even at best guess this is still as much as 18 months out. These areas have some of the most stringent and harsh measures in the country.

In a surprise turn, China has endorsed an independent investigation of the corona virus origins by the WHO. China’s historical activities would strongly suggest that they think they can twist the “investigation” into a tool to exhonerate them, or at least throw enough mud around to get them out of the cross hairs. They may possibly try to include western nations support of ‘research’ at Wuhan.

China has reportedly drawn up a list of more Australian industries to target after slapping tariffs on barley and banning some beef imports amid mounting tensions over calls for a coronavirus inquiry. Wine, dairy, seafood, oatmeal and fruit exporters could be hit with new customs rules, quality checks or tariffs to make selling into China more difficult, according to a Bloomberg article which cited ‘people familiar with the matter’.
Each year Australian companies export about $1billion worth of dairy, $1.3billion of wine and $658million of seafood to China, meaning further tariffs could seriously harm the economy. (Daily Mail) China is strong arming Australia because it can, its economy isn’t as deep as the US but does show indications of what China may resort to under continued US pressure.

Economy -
According a new release from the Mortgage Bankers Association, some 4.1 million Americans, or 8 percent of mortgage holders, are now skipping payments. To what extent this may turn into a mortgage crisis similar to 2008 is still not clear.

Housing starts were at the slowest rate since February 2015, dropping 30% from March. Permits for new activity fell 20.8%. The housing market is a guide for the strength of an economy and is one of the leaders when an economy pulls out of a recession. Loss of sales reflect purchasers loss of jobs and job uncertainty.

After 58 years of selling home decor, Pier 1 Imports is closing its remaining 540 stores permanently, just months after filing for bankruptcy. The chain was already suffering financial troubles prior to the corona virus closures and it reports that the closure just pushed it to bankruptcy by interrupting attempted restructuring.

Workers are returning to Ford, GM and Chrysler plants. However, new and used car sales are very soft due to everyone else being unemployed or facing potential unemployment. Existing car loan repayments are in trouble due to failures to repay.

Food Supply -
Hog slaughtering capacity remains at about 75 percent, which is still leading hog farmers to euthanize over a hundred thousand hogs each day. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said that he didn’t expect current dislocation would cause long term damage to supply chains or the food supply, but it’s unclear if he’s making changes in anticipation of a second wave of COVID-19 later this fall or winter. All of the meat processing facilities owned by JBS and Smithfield Foods are operational, although some remain operating below maximum capacity. Nearly all Tyson Foods plants are operational.

The Trump administration installed a $19 Billion dollar relief program for farmers and ranchers in an effort to make sure the the nation’s food supplies are stable at the source.

China -
The aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt will return to sea later this week before Memorial Day after a coronavirus outbreak sidelined the massive warship for nearly two months after more than 1,000 sailors tested positive, Navy officials said Tuesday. Tensions have been increasing in the region as China has taken the opportunity the corona virus lockdowns have created to more aggressively assert itself in disputed portions of the China Sea

Iraq -
Iranian supported militia elements are believed to have fired three rockets towards the US Embassy compound in Bagdad. No causalities or significant damage reported. Dozens of rockets have been fired by Kataib Hezbollah against US forces in Iraq in recent months. Four members of the US-led Coalition have been killed since December by these rockets.

Iran -
The U.S. Navy issued a warning on Tuesday to mariners in the Persian Gulf to stay 100 meters (yards) away from U.S. warships or risk being “interpreted as a threat and subject to lawful defensive measures.” This is clearly a warning to Iran who is the only violator of concern. Iran responded to the US warning of approaching its warships too closely by stating that they will continue their normal operations no matter what. The US warning may be seeking to cut off an potential situations if US warships intercept Iranian tankers currently en-route to Venezuela. Iran has promised to punish the US if it interferes with those ships.

Southern Iran is being infested for the second year in a row by a huge swarm of locusts described as the worst in decades. This second wave, spawned by last year’s swarm is estimated to be 20 times larger. It is deploying military assets to assist in the attempt to control the hundreds of billion locusts in that area. This infestation places more pressure on an already stricken Iranian economy that now could be facing limited famine/food shortages that will be difficult to compensate for under current sanctions.

Israel -
PA leader Abbas stated Tuesday that “The Palestine Liberation Organization & the State of Palestine are absolved, as of today, of all the agreements & understandings with the American and Israeli governments and of all the obligations based on these understandings and agreements, including the security ones”. It is a very strong statement and if he follows through portends serious consequences for the PA. His declaration is likely in response to Israel’s plans to annex portions of the west bank as allowed for by the US offered peace plan. Such annexation was essentially cleared when Abbas announced that the PA would have nothing to do with it. Abbas is treading on thin ice as much of the relative peace these past several years in the west bank has been due to economic benefits from cooperation with Israel. It is not certain that the Palestinians in the west bank are that willing to lose that income and benefits.

The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, on Monday congratulated the new Israeli government but also made clear that the EU will not accept an Israeli move to apply sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria. The EU has consistently been against any expansion of the territory of Israel beyond the 1967 borders. It has also been anti-semetic in its policies across the board, so no surprise here.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
The Oregon Supreme Court late Monday halted a rural judge’s order earlier in the day that had tossed out statewide coronavirus restrictions imposed by Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. The Supreme Court’s ruling stays Shirtcliff’s decision pending review by all the high court justices. Stay tuned. . . . .

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3847076/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

More confusing information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention which just corrected earlier warnings, now saying that the coronavirus “does not spread easily” from “touching surfaces or objects.” The timely and accurate response to the corona virus by the CDC to date has been substandard ranging from confused warnings like this, to faulty test kits and testing.

(Times of Israel) “ An Israeli professor who made waves in early April for insisting that the coronavirus will play itself out after 70 days regardless of intervention levels says that he has been proved right, and that claims the virus will return in force for a second wave are just speculation.
“It’s very amusing that people talk about a second wave,” Isaac Ben-Israel, a prominent mathematician, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency, and a former general, told The Times of Israel. “How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?” However, a public health expert disputed Ben-Israel’s claims and said he “has no clue about epidemiology and public health.”
Ben-Israel said that since he crunched figures on the pandemic some six weeks ago and publicized his theory that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days, he has been vindicated — and concluded that the “hysteria” he sees around him is “as contagious as biological diseases.”” This will be interesting to continue to monitor. Much worry/concern is being raised about a second wave of infections this fall.

Bloomberg reported yesterday a study describing the latest findings from doctors and researchers in northeastern China who are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in this new cluster, suggesting that the virus may indeed by changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Peru has surpassed 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, the country’s Ministry of Health says. Peru is second to Brazil for the highest number of coronavirus cases in Latin America.(CNN)

Domestic Terror -
(Fox) The Naval Air Station Corpus Christi is in lockdown because of an active shooter, the U.S. Navy confirmed Thursday morning. A statement on NAS Corpus Christi’s Facebook page said: “NAS Corpus Christi is now in a lockdown status. There is an active shooter in the vicinity of the North Gate. If you are in or near the North Gate get out and away to safety. Execute lockdown procedures — remain indoors and away from windows.”

Economy -
H/T to WildHighlander57 for confirming yesterdays mortgage information (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3805130/posts?page=408#408). Here is more bad news. Levels of concern are rising in the banking industry as as much as $150 Billion in loans in the form of credit card, car payments and personal loans are not being made. Some are making arrangements for delayed payments and most banks have worked out plans to allow them to miss payments for as long as several months. Now banks are having to assess if they will be able to keep up the payments during the future economic turmoil and fallout from the corona virus lockdown.

First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 2.44 million last week as the tail effects of the coronavirus shutdown continued to impact the U.S. jobs market. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 2.4 million claims. In the nine weeks since the coronavirus-induced lockdown has shut down large parts of the U.S. economy, some 38.6 million workers have filed claims.(CNBC)

Japan’s exports have fallen the most since 2009 as demand drops globally.

China -
The USS Theodore Roosevelt left Guam and entered the Philippine Sea on Thursday morning. According to the Navy “The ship will commence underway training and carrier qualifications to support the air wing’s return to operational readiness. During the underway, the ship will leave sailors ashore that are not required for these evolutions,” reads a statement from the carrier. “This will enable the ship to conduct training at sea while personnel left in Guam can support the recovery of the rest of the crew who remain in quarantine or isolation. During this transition, the ship will enforce strict cleaning protocols and maintain social distancing as part of the phased approach to returning the ship to operations.” It will also take time for a task force to be reconstituted. Since TR has been in Guam, the guided-missile cruiser and five guided-missile destroyers assigned to the CSG have been operating across the Pacific on other missions. Of the ships in the carrier strike group, TR and guided-missile destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-100) both saw outbreaks of COVID-19. Kidd is currently in port in San Diego with its crew in isolation while the ship is disinfected.

The US is looking to sell advanced torpedoes to Taiwan worth around $180 million, Beijing is urging the stop of all sales to prevent more damage to China-US relations.

N Korea -
There is still uncertainly about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He disappeared from his usual schedule of public events on April 12th and did not reappear until May 1 st , when he made several well-publicized public appearances. But since then nothing. This has spurred discussion that the images published on May 1 were not that of Kim but a body double. OSINT attempts to track Kim have been fruitless. Rumors still persist of a heart surgery in April that resulted in Chinese specialists being sent to NK.

Iran -
Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino says that the Venezuelan Navy and Venezuela Air Force will escort the Iranian tankers into Venezuela. This assumes the tankers are not intercepted first.

Israel -
As mentioned previously, Israel and Iran are engaging in cyberwarfare. Yesterday multiple Israeli website were the target of a cyberattack on Thursday, their homepages being replaced with an anti-Israel video and message in Hebrew and broken English: “The countdown of Israel destruction has begun since a long time ago.”

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s latest threat to renounce all agreements with Israel have been received by palestinians with skepticism, noting that he has been saying the same thing for the past five years.

Chile -
Violent food riots are breaking out in Santiago and other cities. Food shortages and mandatory closures has made it nearly impossible for them to work or buy food. Remember, the US is just 9 meals away from similar outbreaks.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
(CNSNews) — A report by Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates that in April 2020 there were 1,797,910 gun sales, an increase of 71.3% over the April 2019 sales. As the SAAF estimated, “April 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales [were] at 1,797,910 units, a year-over-year increase of 71.3% from April 2019. Likely single handgun sales (1,085,046) increased year-over-year by 83.1% whereas single long-gun sales (560,353) increased year-over-year by 51.7%.” Times of uncertainty drive folks to rediscover the Second Amendment.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker rescinded the rule that could have put defiant business owners in jail for up to a year. He first imposed it when his authority to close them during the pandemic was challenged. The rules were facing strong push back by citizens and business groups with even the legislature getting involved. Pritzker’s withdrawal of the rule means he likely did not have the votes to avoid public rejection from lawmakers – let alone their constituents.

More protests against government corona virus lock down rule and sluggish re-opening actions are planned across the nation as part of “Freedom Friday”.

More and more churches across the country are also planning to reopen their facilities and have in person services May 31, which also happens to be Pentecost Sunday, the general date that is looked to as the official start of the Christian Church. A coalition of 1200 clergy have issued a letter to CA Gov Newsom to allow churches to meet again. It seems that this group is in addition to the 3000 churches that have stated they will meet on May 31 no matter what.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3847472/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

Doctors in Northern California say they have seen more deaths from suicide than they’ve seen from the coronavirus during the pandemic. “The numbers are unprecedented,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc of John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, told ABC 7 News about the increase of suicide deaths adding that he’s seen a “year’s worth of suicides” in the last four weeks alone. This account parallels a British study that indicates that suicide as well as other issues such as drug and alcohol abuse, are beginning to skyrocket under continued lock down conditions.

Domestic Terror -
FBI is involved in investigating the shooting at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi yesterday and the attack is characterized as terrorism related. The shooter, described as an “arab male” tried to ram a van through the base gate and was blocked by an activated vehicle barrier. The driver then got out and started shooting. He was killed (neutralized) by base security. There are still some reports of a second person of interest at large.

Economy -
According to The Illinois Restaurant Association there were 25,851 restaurants operating in the state in March, and it estimates that 20%, or nearly 5,200 restaurants, will go out of business in the coming months because of COVID-19. Some in the industry say that number is a best case scenario. Similar bankruptcies are expected nationwide in the restaurant industry.

(Bloomberg) — The Mall of America, the largest U.S. shopping center, missed two months of payments for a $1.4 billion commercial mortgage-backed security, the latest sign of the devastating impact of pandemic-related shutdowns on the retail industry. “The loan is currently due for the April and May payments,” according to a report filed by the trustee of the debt, Wells Fargo & Co., which is also the master servicer for the loan. “Borrower has notified master servicer of Covid-19 related hardships.”

I’m reading a lot of debate between economists regarding if the economic damage due to the lock down will cause a deflationary tail spin or hyperinflation - I’m no economist, but we may still be a little early in the game to project from the current conditions.

US -
The US announced yesterday that it is pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty in response to Russian violations. This withdrawal is to be effective in 6 months.

USS Theodore Roosevelt is taking 10-14 days to do re-certification of the air wing and flight deck before returning to Guam to retrieve the rest of the crew. Overall, the Navy’s adjustments to the corona virus and operational impacts could possibly result in vessels spending more time deployed at sea with little or no port calls outside of US bases. The navy reports at least 6 carrier groups are presently at sea.

Hong Kong -
(WaPo)” China’s Communist Party will impose a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong by fiat during the annual meeting of its top political body, officials said Thursday, criminalizing “foreign interference” along with secessionist activities and subversion of state power. The move is the boldest yet from Beijing to undercut Hong Kong’s autonomy and bring the global financial hub under its full control, as it works to rewrite the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed the territory to enjoy a level of autonomy for the past 23 years. After steadily eroding Hong Kong’s political freedoms, Beijing signaled that the national security law will be a new tool that allows it to directly tackle the political dissent that erupted on Hong Kong’s streets last year.” This law change could also authorize more direct military intervention and supression of any protests. Overnight, Hong Kong stock market dropped by more than 5%, seeing some of it’s worse losses ever.

Hong Kong activists called for a protest march on Friday against Beijing’s plans to impose national security legislation in the semiautonomous city, raising concerns over its freedoms and its status as a global financial hub. Watch for potential violence and renewed unrest.

In response, U.S. senators are introducing a bipartisan bill that would sanction Chinese officials and entities who enforce new national security law in Hong Kong. The legislation would also penalize banks who do business with those entities. President Trump signed a bill last year showing solidarity with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.

Iran/Venezuela -
The first of five Iranian oil tankers, the “Fortune” is about 24-36 hours out from Venezuelan EEZ. If the US is to intercept, they have about 24 hours to do so. Justification would be enforcing sanctions on both countries.

Israel -
In a move associated with Abbas’ threat to sever cooperation with Israel, PA security forces have started a partial withdrawal from the town of Abu Dis east of Jerusalem Friday morning. This threatens to allow unrest to begin, though it may backfire on the PA since it will not have any elements to ‘protect’ if terrorist activity begins.

Libya -
Fighting for Tripoli continues to be a bloody slug fest. Turkey which supports the UN recognized government, has warned rebels of heavy retaliation if any Turkish positions are attacked. Recent support from Turkey has blunted the rebel assault and Turkish aircraft have been more successful in interdicting supplies for the rebels.

Russia -
Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by more than 8% in the second quarter 2020.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Monitoring the DC Court of Appeals slap down of Judge Sullivan (Gen Flynn case). This could be the deep states ‘pickett’s charge’.

More lockdown protests scheduled across the country, with today being called by some “Freedom Friday”

I’m still working on my personal review of the matrix.

Wuhan Virus -
Great breakdown of the data here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3847777/posts

Significant developments on my radar . . .

Corona virus related deaths in rest homes/long term care facilities are one of the tragic milestones of this emergency. As the numbers become clearer, they become darker. 81% of coronavirus deaths in Minnesota have occurred in nursing homes and in New York 4,300 infected patents were sent back into nursing homes, infecting and killing thousands more. Nationally, the AP is reporting over 35,500 people have died from coronavirus outbreaks at nursing homes and long-term care facilities, about a third of the overall death toll. Probably the sickest (no pun intended) item was the disgustingly brutal attack by a 20 yr old black corona virus patient on a 77 yr old white male in Michigan. Placing this violent individual into an elderly care facility was bad enough, but being symptomatic with corona and probably infecting others in the facility is unspeakably demonic.

Domestic Terror Attack -
The FBI unofficially announced it Adam Salim Alsahli was the one who opened fire at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi. Alsahli was a native of Syria who held US citizenship and a 20 yr old college student at Del Mar College, a community college in Corpus Christi. Rumors that Alsahli voiced support for hardline Islamic clerics on social media prior to the thwarted attack. Ramadan is ending and Eid is today (Saturday).

Economy -
Car rental giant Hertz is preparing to file for bankruptcy.

In Dubai, a survey of businesses there indicates 70% of Dubai companies expect to go out of business within six months due to coronavirus pandemic. Dubai has a diversified economy not overly dependent on oil.

Venezuela / Iran -
The clock is ticking down on whether or not the US will intercept the first of five Iranian tankers bound for Venezuela. The first tanker is within hours of reaching Venezuelan controlled waters. Iranian President Rouhani has issued a warning to US against harassing the Iranian tankers bound for Venezuela

Global Terror -
The end of Ramadan seems to be ending relatively quietly around the globe.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
In the face of increasing push back by thousands of Kalifornian churches, Gov newsom has announced he will be releasing ‘guidelines’ for reopening. I don’t expect much but more foot dragging. Liberals are using church closures to punish some of Trump’s strongest supporters - evangelical christians under the guise of the pandemic.

Syria -
A joint Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces raid killed two top ISIS leaders, CENTCOM confirmed on Friday The Coalition-SDF raid took place on May 17 in Deir Ezzor province, Syria, killing regional ISIS leaders Ahmad ‘Isa Ismail al-Zawi and Ahmad ‘Abd Muhammad Hasan al-Jughayfi.

Hong Kong -
China is moving forward with its new law that will nulify the treaty with Britain over the self governing status of HK. On Friday, Hong Kong’s government (largely hand picked by China) said it would co-operate with Beijing to enact the law, adding it would not affect the city’s freedoms. Protests have resumed inspite of corona virus restrictions that China is exploiting to force the take over.

N Korea -
Back into where is waldo mode. Chinese sources (RUMINT) he is still in Wonson.

Wuhan Virus -
Great breakdown of the data here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3848020/posts

Significant developments on my radar . . .

Phylogenetic mapping of corona virus variants based upon tens of thousands of samples indicates that there are as many as 19 variants in the US alone. This will make the development of any vaccine questionable at best. For those who’ve paid attention to the standard flu vaccines over the years will note that by the time a vaccine hits the streets, the virus has mutated and the vaccine is essentially worthless (health providers will say it does ‘help’ a little.)

In a huge turn around Dr. Anthony Fauci said “staying locked down for a prolonged period of time” is not the right approach, and “most of the country” is reopening “in a prudent way.” Fauci said, “I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go.” Fauci has been out of the spotlight the past couple weeks after openly disagreeing with the president on reopening the economy when he said it should be kept shut down longer - which the president replied was unsatisfactory. Some observers and analysts consider Fauci maneuvering to protect his image as a pandemic hero, but his record clearly is that of a corrupted bureaucrat.

The CDC just came out with a report (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% If one factors out the exceptionally high nursing home related deaths and focuses on the ‘healthy’ population, this number drops to about 0.1%.

Economy -
Some economists are observing that the growing rent defaults are inflicting a hard hit to landlords. An estimated $7.4 billion in rent for April hasn’t been paid, or about 45% of what’s owed, according to a recent analysis by CoStar Group, which also found that just a quarter of of expected rent payments have been received by landlords. In a particular bad position are mall owners who prior to the shut down were dealing with low rated of occupancy. With remaining occupants not paying rents, the stability of those owners is becoming questionable and if prolonged much further, wide spread resultant bankruptcies and closures would be expected.

Venezuela / Iran -
The first of five Iranian oil tankers reached Venezuelan territorial water without incident. Expect a lot of gloating and chest banging by both nations.

India/China -
Tensions have increased since last week’s fist fight between the two militaries. Starting in the third week of April, over 5,000 Chinese soldiers have intruded into Indian territory at five points in Ladakh — four along the Galwan River, and one near the Pangong Lake.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
The Oregon Supreme Court on Saturday issued a deadline to the Baker County judge who this week granted a preliminary injunction nullifying Oregon governor’s emergency coronavirus orders: Either throw out the injunction by 5 p.m. Tuesday or explain why he should not do so. Gov Brown appointed 6 of the 8 justices.

The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals (three judge panel) ruled Friday on a lawsuit brought by the South Bay United Pentecostal Church in Chula Vista, California, earlier this month. It upheld Newsom’s church ban. On sign of California (or other churches for that matter) backing off demands that Newsom loosen the restrictions or they will start meeting on their terms by May 31 (Pentecost Sunday)

Leading in many discussions is the potential for the abuse of contact tracing the will lead to forced incarcerations and deprivation of rights. Many on the left as well as those who’ve drank the faustian koolaid of pandemic think there will be no abuses. Even from the short history of this pandemic response - abuses have been rampant and wide spread. Civilian push back to already onerous emergency ‘regulations’ may be pushed even farther if these ‘tracers’ gain traction - and rest assured the tracing plans are nation wide.

Hong Kong -
Yesterday thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators took to the streets and were met almost immediately by police using tear gas, water cannons and arresting protest leaders. I anticipate that this is just the start of a long, hot summer of protests.

N Korea -
Kim Jong Un has made his first public appearance in about three weeks, presiding over a central military committee meeting. Some are already questioning the photos because no one in the room is wearing a mask. Photos of individuals outside the room (and not with Kim) have masks. This is causing more speculation about a body double. This meeting had discussions about increasing ‘nuclear war deterrence’ and taking measures to increase the firepower strike ability of artillery. The military was also placed on “high alert”, which is interesting since it is almost always on such an alert level.

Relatively short today, have a lot on my plate to get done.

Wuhan Virus -
Great breakdown of the data here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3848259/posts

Significant developments on my radar . . .

The debate in America is now over reopening the economy and how fast. Numbers supporting the states that have opened up the earliest.

Some studies indicate that the individual is no longer infectious after about 11 days, even if they still test positive for the virus. More studies needed obviously.

Venezuela / Iran -
The first of five Iranian oil tankers reached Venezuelan territorial water without incident. Expect a lot of gloating and chest banging by both nations.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Liberals in kalifornia are attempting to pin the radical right wing as the source for the recent protests in Sacramento.

Hong Kong -
Thousands more took to the streets in protests today. Taiwan voiced its support for protestors and democracy movement. No significant violence by the police, unlike Saturday’s protests.
China is warning the world to mind their business as HK is an ‘internal’ matter.

India/China -
Situation remains tense in eastern Ladakh. China has built up troop numbers and India has matched it number for number.

Libya -
The government forces, with substantial reinforcement of Turkish supplied fighters, appear to have turned the tide in the 16 month battle for Tripoli. Russian forces supporting the rebels have reportedly been pulled back following several losses.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3848508/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current “best estimate” for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

Additional states are coming forward and revising their corona virus deaths downward. I believe this is due in part to the increasing scrutiny of the so-called diagnoses assigning the cause of death to the virus. Second, there is financial reasons, potential lawsuits because hospitals received additional money if a case was corona virus.

US Strategic deployments-
USN announced that it now has 7 of its 11 carriers underway. The 7th being the USS Roosevelt, undergoing re-certification for the next couple weeks. The corona virus woes that hit the Roosevelt seems to have pushed the navy to get its assets out to sea to maintain the health integrity of its crews and accordingly the defense posture of the branch. I would expect these to be long deployments, with no uncontrolled shore leaves like the one that brought the virus onto the Roosevelt.

CW2 -
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Sunday ordered a police raid on a predominately black church for holding services in defiance of her coronavirus shutdown orders. Lightfoot allegedly dispatched three marked squad cars and two unmarked police vehicles full of officers to Chicago Cornerstone Baptist Church in the South Side’s Woodlawn neighborhood.
In kalifornia, Gov Newsom is allowing churches to reopen with ‘restrictions’ such as numbers, sanitation, no worship/singing, spacing, etc. The list of regulations are such that the vast majority of churches wont be able to reopen - by design. Similar restriction laced ‘reopening’ blessing was given by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over the weekend.

Economy -
Reports are surfacing that hospitals nation wide lost something in the neighborhood of over 200 billion dollars to the shutdown. The much ballyhood warnings of overwhelmed hospitals never even remotely approached, leaving hospitals significantly empty and associated health care doctors and nurses furloughed.

China/India -
(NDTV) Indian and Chinese troops remained engaged in an eyeball-to-eyeball situation in several areas along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh, signalling that the standoff could become the biggest military face-off after the Doklam crisis in 2017.
Top military sources said India has further increased its strength in Pangong Tso and Galwan Valley - the two contentious areas where Chinese army is learnt to have been deploying around 2,000 to 2,500 troops, besides gradually enhancing temporary infrastructure. Strategic Affairs expert Ambassador Ashok K Kantha agreed with Lt General Hooda. “There have been multiple incursions (by Chinese troops). This is something which causes concern. It is not a routine standoff. This is a disturbing situation,” Mr Kantha said. The situation in eastern Ladakh deteriorated after around 250 Chinese and Indian soldiers were engaged in a violent face-off (i.e. Fist fight) on the evening of May 5, which spilled over to the next day before the two sides agreed to “disengage” following a meeting at the level of local commanders.

Hong Kong -
U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien warned that the territory risks losing the U.S. trade privileges if it continues to effectively nullify the treaty with Britian over HK sovereignty. China responded by threatening economic sanctions against the US and any supporting country.

Riot police used tear gas and pepper spray to disperse a crowd of thousands on Sunday, gathered despite coronavirus restrictions to rally against a proposed new security law. Protesters chanted in favor of a “free” and “independent” Hong Kong.

Confederation of Trade Unions calls for general strike on May 27 in response to China’s National Security Law. Expect protests to increase with time as China finalizes the law.

Iran/Venezulea -
The second Iranian tanker has entered Venezuelan waters. It appears that the US has chosen not to increase tensions between the countries at this time.

Israel -
At least three groups of incendiary and explosive balloons were launched from the Gaza Strip on Monday, announced the terror group Ahfad al-Nasser later in the day, warning that Israel had 72 hours to send medical supplies for the coronavirus outbreak into Gaza, or they would make the Gaza envelope “hell.” Use of these IED balloons had ceased for several months, but with the end of the rainy season, fields are starting to dry out, making them susceptible to fires again.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday pledged to annex parts of the occupied West Bank in the coming months, vowing to move ahead with the explosive plan despite a growing chorus of condemnations by other nations.

Saudi Arabia -
Katab Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia based on the Lebanese Hezbollah, has called for its members to begin operations inside Saudi Arabia in an effort to bring down the ruling Saud family. Katab Hezbollah is also accused of working for Iran to achieve Iranian control over Iraq. The head of Katab Hezbollah was killed along with Quds commander Qassem Soleimani back in January.

Libya -
Over the weekend LNA (Libyan National Army) forces began moving away from the capital, Tripoli, which they had trying to take since April 2019. The cause of the retreat was the ability of the growing Turkish mercenary force to reinforce the various militias the UN-backed GNA (Government of National Accord) was using to unsuccessfully defend itself against the rival HoR (House of Representatives) government in Tobruk. What prompted the seemingly sudden LNA retreat was the refusal of the LNA leader to go along with a truce deal that the Russians, Turks and GNA were willing to accept. Russia forces started pulling back as a result, hastened by the economic and public health crisis back home.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3848845/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

Brazil reports more corona deaths than the US on Monday. 807 vs 620. It now has the second largest outbreak, behind the US.

Not sure of the legitimacy of the group - Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity - but they published a study showing the gross lack of care / protection given to those in rest homes/long term deaths. Approximately 42% of the corona virus deaths occurred in these nursing homes, who’s population is just 1.6% of the US. Worse case comes from Minnesota with 81%. The foundation excluded New York data where nearly 53% of corona virus deaths occurred in nursing homes.

US Strategic deployments/actions -
Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers conducted another flyover in the South China Sea on Tuesday, marking a new increase in flyovers in the region after the bombers deployed to Guam on May 1. The two bombers were based at Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, and supported a Bomber Task Force mission “showcasing their ability to fly, sail, & operate anywhere international law allows, at the time and tempo of our choosing,” according to the Pacific Air Forces.

CW2 -
Twitter announced it is ‘fact checking’ the President’s tweets. By doing so, as a corporation they are interjecting themselves in an overt manner into the election - a situation that could seriously backfire on them. They have opened themselves to having the liability protections stripped from them provided under Section 230 of the Communications Act. That law does not considers Twitter as a publisher or speaker, and therefore not liable to the content of what is published. However, by taking sides in this matter, they essentially become a publisher/speaker. Losing that status, Twitter could become open to lawsuits from all sides.

Economy -
By the end of yesterday, the Dow had recovered approximately 75% of the loss incurred from the corona virus chaos. I’m not surprise that the MSM is not reporting, but I am that alternative/conservative media isn’t pointing that out either.

Papa John’s said May estimated same-store sales shot up 33.5% in North America and 7% globally. Other similar businesses likely did the same. However this was on the backs of traditional sit-down eating establishments, many of which now have already announced they will not be reopening. Many allowed to reopen still are unlikely to reopen because of the rigid requirement that would cost them even more money than the limited customers would provide.

Home price index for March shows a gain of 4.4% annual, up from 4.2% in February. This indicates the housing market was stable during the initial stages of the lockdown. Fed monetary policy of printing money to stabilize the economy may result in driving prices higher, out of the range of those who’ve lost their jobs or taken substantial wage cuts. Folks will need to look closer to April and May data - periods where the economy has had the worst hits.

China/India -
Negotiation on China’s incursion into Indian territory are not panning out. Tens of thousands of troops marshaling on both sides of the border. If China is successful in holding the territory and extracting its demands, India will also lose control/access to other portions of the border area. It is important to recognize that China sees India as a serious challenger to its economy, a threat that has increased due to backlash from the corona virus. India is hungry to get more of the slice of global markets and supplant China for that income. Both nations are nuclear equipped and a local or regional conflict could spin out of control.

Hong Kong -
The U.S. is considering a range of sanctions to punish China for its crackdown on Hong Kong. The list includes controls and freezing of assets of Chinese officials and companies, and visa restrictions. Initial sanctions could come as early as sometime before the end of the week. China has already warned that they will strike back hard if that happens.

Protests continued as thousands of people took to the streets on Wednesday to voice anger over national security legislation proposed by China. Police responded with pepper pellets and arresting about 300. The bill is being debated by the HK legislative council and is expected to become law next month.

Iran/Venezuela -
Both countries continue to gloat as the third of the five tankers has arrived. But this little bit of gasoline will do little for Venezuela as it will be reserved for Madura and his friends, with very little if any to the common folk. This gasoline also came at a very steep price - a substantial amount of Venezuela’s gold reserve being paid to Iran for this and help restarting is refineries that are close to total ruin. Long term, it will hurt Venezula while the mullah’s laugh all the way to the bank, getting a much needed boost to their income - most of which is dedicated to regional terror operations.

Libya -
Dynamics are changing as Russia pulls back. Russia deployed MiG-29s and other aircraft to Libya, countering what other countries that might think Moscow is ending its support for the eastern Libyan government of Khalifa Haftar. It is a big play for Russia, doing it in broad daylight to show off after around ten Russian Pantsir air defense systems were reportedly destroyed by Turkish drones in Libya. These MiGs were tracked from Syria to Libya. The attacks on the Pantsir systems mirror the successful Turkish attacks on those systems in Syria.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3849189/posts

We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

The US has passed the 100,000 death mark. Daily new cases is approaching 50% of the peak rate.

Most of the news regarding the corona virus is focused on the effort to restart the economy and remove lock down edicts. Continuing, though you won’t see it on the MSM is the deaths in those in rest homes/long term care facilities. The San Jose Mercury News is reporting that CA appears to be covering up its scandal of nursing home deaths by obfuscating the numbers. Gov Newsom issued directives to force nursing homes to accept corona virus patients that were still contagious. Now, like his counter part on the east coast, Coumo, he is trying to hide his finger prints.

States such as Georgia and Florida that were criticized for opening up “too soon” are not seeing spikes in infections that were predicted.

Increasing numbers of doctors are warning that extending the lock downs will harm health more than the virus. At the top of the list are routine procedures for detection of cancer, heart disease, etc as well as critical elective surgery such as heart valve replacement (how that made the elective list is beyond me).

CW2 -
President Trump is poised to sign an executive order this morning aimed at social media companies, according to White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany. Details will come out with the order, but expect it to deal with the ability of social platforms to limit or regulate posts under US statutes that grant it protections for being neutral - which Twitter et al have repeatedly ignored.

George Floyd protests spread to multiple cities as 1000s in LA block the I-5 Freeway, and in Minneapolis businesses were set ablaze amid looting. Reports out of Minneapolis indicate that rioters are carrying ‘machetes’ - a weapon commonly used by Somalis. Local armed groups also appeared to protect businesses from the rioters. Minneapolis mayor Frey has been in discussions with the MN gov about getting assistance from the National Guard. The City of Minneapolis has been governed exclusively by liberals for decades. The current mayor, Jacob Frey, who was quick to denounce his own police department, is a left-wing Democrat. The Minneapolis City Council consists of Democrats and Green Party members who think the Democrats are not radical enough.
These riots have restarted the black lives matter movement as well as sympathetic antifa actions. I don’t see rioting expanding much further at this time, but the explosive response definitely does indicate that leftist protesters are primed and ready to hit the streets. This will also embolden violence towards republicans as the election cycle drives towards November.

Economy -
Boeing Co said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American plane maker restructures in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. It should be noted that the company was in trouble even before the corona virus hit, due to problems with its 737 MAX shutting down production and international competition.

Companies across the U.S. are cutting salaries as they fight to survive the coronavirus, upending a key assumption in modern economics and raising another hurdle to rapid recovery. This observation is more antidotal at the moment, but I expect it to become more common as the restart progresses, mostly centered on sectors that are not high demand, such as technology companies.

CBS News reported the layoff of about 500 staff. CBS was having trouble before the virus and these may not be related to the virus.

China/India -
Mixed reports indicate that contrary to a statement from Beijing yesterday, there are no signs of pullout from Indian territory. Chinese troops continue where they were, digging trenches and preparing bunkers above Pangong Lake and 3 points in the Galwan valley. Yesterday President Trump offered to help mediate the current standoff.

Hong Kong -
China passed the controversial security law effectively stripping rights from HK’rs and placing the former British colony under essentially direct communist rule. US Sec State Pompeo said that favorable trade statuses with HK will be stopped. More than 1,300 U.S. companies have operations in the city. Other countries are expected to join the US in this first, of what will be many, rounds of economic sanctions directed against China.

Iran -
What few wavers exist for Iran will be ending in 60 days according to SecState Pompeo. He also announced sanctions against two Iranian scientists responsible for Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

Domestically, the situation has changed significantly from virus to riots.

Wuhan Virus -
Great breakdown of the data here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3849544/posts

Significant developments on my radar . . . .

After months of corona virus coverage, riots have taken center stage. Seeing a lot of flip flops by Fauci, WHO, CDC, etc on testing, results, wear of masks, etc. Infection and death rates continue to decrease in the US and most of the rest of the world. Many countries around the world are contemplating seeking reparations from China for its involvement in the spread of the virus.

Economy -
2.3 million new jobless claims were filed last week with approximately 25% of the entire work force being jobless. However, we may be reaching the bottom as continuing jobless claims dropped from 25 to 21 million Q1 GDP was revised down from -4.8 to -5.0 percent annualized

Venezuela / Iran -
Two Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned ships that ”were en route to Venezuela carrying Iranian fuel, scrapped their deliveries after the U.S. threatened sanctions,” a senior U.S. official told Fox News. It isn’t clear if these two vessels were part of the 5 tracked enroute to Venezuela, as it announced that the 4th vessel has entered territorial waters under protective escort.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
See the FR thread on details/commentary covering last night’s day three of riots. Left wing/ antifa elements are encouraging their followers to escalate the violence using the George Floyd riots as a springboard. Those monitoring far leftist sites note that several chapters of the Socialist Rifle Association are promoting armed revolution. Leftist media source “Unicorn Riot” has been live streaming Minnesota rioting.
NOTE: Ground Zero is congresswoman Omar’s district, which is predominantly populated by Somali refugees.

Last night saw all this leftist encouragement break into violence in multiple cities across the country. The epicenter shifted from Minneapolis to the twin city of St. Paul. Dozens of building were burned and countless more vandalized. The Third Precinct headquarters in south Minneapolis was overrun, forcing police to evacuate, and burned down. A significant number of other actions, such as kidnapping/assaulting women being reported as well as a lot of gunfire.

National guard has been activated, but not in enough strength to affect last night’s chaos. It seems their initial operations consist of protecting fire department response. Even with NG support, a lot of fire fighters stood down due to danger. The Minnesota National Guard announced it had “activated more than 500 soldiers to St. Paul, Minneapolis and surrounding communities,”. They will be using today’s break in the action to organize and prepare for what will be a fourth night of riots.

Police tactics observed so far appear to be similar to those in Baltimore - back off and let them riot. Very little effort to stop looting, vandalism and arson. This shows a lack of leadership at the city level.

Spot reports from other cities suggest that national coordination is underway. SWAT teams had to deploy the Ohio Statehouse after rioters broke into it.
At least seven protesters were shot in Louisville after protestors attacked police and attempted to flip a police vehicle.

The President seems to be inferring that he may declare martial law in the Twin Cities - to include use of lethal force against rioters. Not sure if he is just venting, but this would be a very significant response.

ASSESSMENT - There is no short term end in sight. It is taking off across the country. The far left has since Trump was elected desired and threatened an “American Spring” revolution. Their preparations have included arms and training through their various “clubs” and “association” as well as developing shell organizations and support elements comparable to a low intensity conflict scenario. They may be attempting to use this as a starting point to start their ‘revolution’.
Rioters in Minneapolis are threatening to bring their chaos to the suburbs if they don’t “get what they want”. This would likely generate self defense ‘units’ to form and lethal protection of neighborhoods. Suburbs are generally more red than the core urban areas and with the huge surge in gun sales due to corona virus fears, many by feel they must use their 2d amendment rights of self defense - especially since it is apparent that the police forces are unable to contain the riots.
Finally, since the left has failed in removing Trump though several means, latest being the bogus impeachment trial and now suppressing economic recovery, the far left may see this as their must do time to stop a Trump re-election by any means necessary.

China -
The President will be holding a press conference on China today, possibly to announce the first round of sanctions over its violation of HK sovereignty. China has become even more aggressive in its foreign policy under the cover of the corona virus pandemic. The following notes indicate regional posturing and preparation for operations beyond the rhetoric and economic clubs it has been welding.

Taiwan -
China will attack Taiwan if there is no other way of stopping it from becoming independent, one of the country’s most senior generals said on Friday, in a rhetorical escalation from China aimed at the democratic island Beijing claims as its own.(Reuters)

Hong Kong -
Governments of the United States of America, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom issued a statement condemning China’s decision to impose national security laws on Hong Kong.

India/China -
OSINT of satellite imagery shows that China has moved large amounts of artillery and mechanized elements on the Chinese side of LAC with India, bringing Indian deployments within striking distance.

China Sea -
U.S. Navy dispatched two warships to East China Sea: Japan-based USS New Orleans and guided-missile destroyer Rafael Peralta from TR strike group. Looking to the possibility that the USS Roosevelt will take station there once its recertification exercises are completed.

Israel -
Netanyahu specifically stated that “the target date for beginning annexation is July 1, and we don’t intend to change it”...

Iran -
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unveiled 112 new and upgraded speedboats on Thursday and alluded to Iran’s tactics for harassing U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. Some would say that is a target rich environment .

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