Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. On the good side, daily cases and deaths have clearly been decreasing since April 2, 2020. Better details here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3847076/posts
We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
More confusing information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention which just corrected earlier warnings, now saying that the coronavirus “does not spread easily” from “touching surfaces or objects.” The timely and accurate response to the corona virus by the CDC to date has been substandard ranging from confused warnings like this, to faulty test kits and testing.
(Times of Israel) “ An Israeli professor who made waves in early April for insisting that the coronavirus will play itself out after 70 days regardless of intervention levels says that he has been proved right, and that claims the virus will return in force for a second wave are just speculation.
“It’s very amusing that people talk about a second wave,” Isaac Ben-Israel, a prominent mathematician, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency, and a former general, told The Times of Israel. “How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?” However, a public health expert disputed Ben-Israel’s claims and said he “has no clue about epidemiology and public health.”
Ben-Israel said that since he crunched figures on the pandemic some six weeks ago and publicized his theory that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days, he has been vindicated — and concluded that the “hysteria” he sees around him is “as contagious as biological diseases.”” This will be interesting to continue to monitor. Much worry/concern is being raised about a second wave of infections this fall.
Bloomberg reported yesterday a study describing the latest findings from doctors and researchers in northeastern China who are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in this new cluster, suggesting that the virus may indeed by changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.
Peru has surpassed 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, the country’s Ministry of Health says. Peru is second to Brazil for the highest number of coronavirus cases in Latin America.(CNN)
Domestic Terror -
(Fox) The Naval Air Station Corpus Christi is in lockdown because of an active shooter, the U.S. Navy confirmed Thursday morning. A statement on NAS Corpus Christi’s Facebook page said: “NAS Corpus Christi is now in a lockdown status. There is an active shooter in the vicinity of the North Gate. If you are in or near the North Gate get out and away to safety. Execute lockdown procedures — remain indoors and away from windows.”
Economy -
H/T to WildHighlander57 for confirming yesterdays mortgage information (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3805130/posts?page=408#408). Here is more bad news. Levels of concern are rising in the banking industry as as much as $150 Billion in loans in the form of credit card, car payments and personal loans are not being made. Some are making arrangements for delayed payments and most banks have worked out plans to allow them to miss payments for as long as several months. Now banks are having to assess if they will be able to keep up the payments during the future economic turmoil and fallout from the corona virus lockdown.
First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 2.44 million last week as the tail effects of the coronavirus shutdown continued to impact the U.S. jobs market. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 2.4 million claims. In the nine weeks since the coronavirus-induced lockdown has shut down large parts of the U.S. economy, some 38.6 million workers have filed claims.(CNBC)
Japan’s exports have fallen the most since 2009 as demand drops globally.
China -
The USS Theodore Roosevelt left Guam and entered the Philippine Sea on Thursday morning. According to the Navy “The ship will commence underway training and carrier qualifications to support the air wing’s return to operational readiness. During the underway, the ship will leave sailors ashore that are not required for these evolutions,” reads a statement from the carrier. “This will enable the ship to conduct training at sea while personnel left in Guam can support the recovery of the rest of the crew who remain in quarantine or isolation. During this transition, the ship will enforce strict cleaning protocols and maintain social distancing as part of the phased approach to returning the ship to operations.” It will also take time for a task force to be reconstituted. Since TR has been in Guam, the guided-missile cruiser and five guided-missile destroyers assigned to the CSG have been operating across the Pacific on other missions. Of the ships in the carrier strike group, TR and guided-missile destroyer USS Kidd (DDG-100) both saw outbreaks of COVID-19. Kidd is currently in port in San Diego with its crew in isolation while the ship is disinfected.
The US is looking to sell advanced torpedoes to Taiwan worth around $180 million, Beijing is urging the stop of all sales to prevent more damage to China-US relations.
N Korea -
There is still uncertainly about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He disappeared from his usual schedule of public events on April 12th and did not reappear until May 1 st , when he made several well-publicized public appearances. But since then nothing. This has spurred discussion that the images published on May 1 were not that of Kim but a body double. OSINT attempts to track Kim have been fruitless. Rumors still persist of a heart surgery in April that resulted in Chinese specialists being sent to NK.
Iran -
Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino says that the Venezuelan Navy and Venezuela Air Force will escort the Iranian tankers into Venezuela. This assumes the tankers are not intercepted first.
Israel -
As mentioned previously, Israel and Iran are engaging in cyberwarfare. Yesterday multiple Israeli website were the target of a cyberattack on Thursday, their homepages being replaced with an anti-Israel video and message in Hebrew and broken English: “The countdown of Israel destruction has begun since a long time ago.”
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s latest threat to renounce all agreements with Israel have been received by palestinians with skepticism, noting that he has been saying the same thing for the past five years.
Chile -
Violent food riots are breaking out in Santiago and other cities. Food shortages and mandatory closures has made it nearly impossible for them to work or buy food. Remember, the US is just 9 meals away from similar outbreaks.
CW2/Civil Unrest -
(CNSNews) — A report by Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates that in April 2020 there were 1,797,910 gun sales, an increase of 71.3% over the April 2019 sales. As the SAAF estimated, “April 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales [were] at 1,797,910 units, a year-over-year increase of 71.3% from April 2019. Likely single handgun sales (1,085,046) increased year-over-year by 83.1% whereas single long-gun sales (560,353) increased year-over-year by 51.7%.” Times of uncertainty drive folks to rediscover the Second Amendment.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker rescinded the rule that could have put defiant business owners in jail for up to a year. He first imposed it when his authority to close them during the pandemic was challenged. The rules were facing strong push back by citizens and business groups with even the legislature getting involved. Pritzker’s withdrawal of the rule means he likely did not have the votes to avoid public rejection from lawmakers – let alone their constituents.
More protests against government corona virus lock down rule and sluggish re-opening actions are planned across the nation as part of “Freedom Friday”.
More and more churches across the country are also planning to reopen their facilities and have in person services May 31, which also happens to be Pentecost Sunday, the general date that is looked to as the official start of the Christian Church. A coalition of 1200 clergy have issued a letter to CA Gov Newsom to allow churches to meet again. It seems that this group is in addition to the 3000 churches that have stated they will meet on May 31 no matter what.
Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020 -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. On the good side, daily cases and deaths have clearly been decreasing since April 2, 2020. Better details here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3847472/posts
We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Doctors in Northern California say they have seen more deaths from suicide than they’ve seen from the coronavirus during the pandemic. “The numbers are unprecedented,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc of John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, told ABC 7 News about the increase of suicide deaths adding that he’s seen a “year’s worth of suicides” in the last four weeks alone. This account parallels a British study that indicates that suicide as well as other issues such as drug and alcohol abuse, are beginning to skyrocket under continued lock down conditions.
Domestic Terror -
FBI is involved in investigating the shooting at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi yesterday and the attack is characterized as terrorism related. The shooter, described as an “arab male” tried to ram a van through the base gate and was blocked by an activated vehicle barrier. The driver then got out and started shooting. He was killed (neutralized) by base security. There are still some reports of a second person of interest at large.
Economy -
According to The Illinois Restaurant Association there were 25,851 restaurants operating in the state in March, and it estimates that 20%, or nearly 5,200 restaurants, will go out of business in the coming months because of COVID-19. Some in the industry say that number is a best case scenario. Similar bankruptcies are expected nationwide in the restaurant industry.
(Bloomberg) — The Mall of America, the largest U.S. shopping center, missed two months of payments for a $1.4 billion commercial mortgage-backed security, the latest sign of the devastating impact of pandemic-related shutdowns on the retail industry. “The loan is currently due for the April and May payments,” according to a report filed by the trustee of the debt, Wells Fargo & Co., which is also the master servicer for the loan. “Borrower has notified master servicer of Covid-19 related hardships.”
I’m reading a lot of debate between economists regarding if the economic damage due to the lock down will cause a deflationary tail spin or hyperinflation - I’m no economist, but we may still be a little early in the game to project from the current conditions.
US -
The US announced yesterday that it is pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty in response to Russian violations. This withdrawal is to be effective in 6 months.
USS Theodore Roosevelt is taking 10-14 days to do re-certification of the air wing and flight deck before returning to Guam to retrieve the rest of the crew. Overall, the Navy’s adjustments to the corona virus and operational impacts could possibly result in vessels spending more time deployed at sea with little or no port calls outside of US bases. The navy reports at least 6 carrier groups are presently at sea.
Hong Kong -
(WaPo)” China’s Communist Party will impose a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong by fiat during the annual meeting of its top political body, officials said Thursday, criminalizing “foreign interference” along with secessionist activities and subversion of state power. The move is the boldest yet from Beijing to undercut Hong Kong’s autonomy and bring the global financial hub under its full control, as it works to rewrite the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed the territory to enjoy a level of autonomy for the past 23 years. After steadily eroding Hong Kong’s political freedoms, Beijing signaled that the national security law will be a new tool that allows it to directly tackle the political dissent that erupted on Hong Kong’s streets last year.” This law change could also authorize more direct military intervention and supression of any protests. Overnight, Hong Kong stock market dropped by more than 5%, seeing some of it’s worse losses ever.
Hong Kong activists called for a protest march on Friday against Beijing’s plans to impose national security legislation in the semiautonomous city, raising concerns over its freedoms and its status as a global financial hub. Watch for potential violence and renewed unrest.
In response, U.S. senators are introducing a bipartisan bill that would sanction Chinese officials and entities who enforce new national security law in Hong Kong. The legislation would also penalize banks who do business with those entities. President Trump signed a bill last year showing solidarity with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.
Iran/Venezuela -
The first of five Iranian oil tankers, the “Fortune” is about 24-36 hours out from Venezuelan EEZ. If the US is to intercept, they have about 24 hours to do so. Justification would be enforcing sanctions on both countries.
Israel -
In a move associated with Abbas’ threat to sever cooperation with Israel, PA security forces have started a partial withdrawal from the town of Abu Dis east of Jerusalem Friday morning. This threatens to allow unrest to begin, though it may backfire on the PA since it will not have any elements to ‘protect’ if terrorist activity begins.
Libya -
Fighting for Tripoli continues to be a bloody slug fest. Turkey which supports the UN recognized government, has warned rebels of heavy retaliation if any Turkish positions are attacked. Recent support from Turkey has blunted the rebel assault and Turkish aircraft have been more successful in interdicting supplies for the rebels.
Russia -
Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by more than 8% in the second quarter 2020.
CW2/Civil Unrest -
Monitoring the DC Court of Appeals slap down of Judge Sullivan (Gen Flynn case). This could be the deep states ‘pickett’s charge’.
More lockdown protests scheduled across the country, with today being called by some “Freedom Friday”