Threat Matrix 2020

Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.

Relatively quiet Sunday, here’s what my radar has detected.

Wuhan Virus -
Significant developments

More than half of the workers in LA are believed to be unemployed due to corona virus shut downs. Social dynamics of a lot of people out of work could stimulate increased crime and even rioting - monitoring.

Largely missing from the new is the impact the virus has had on the homeless population and any associated deaths. A report out of Boston states that at one homeless shelter about half of the population tested positive. On the west coast, there are some reports associated with the virus and homeless (now 30+ days into the deepest do do of the shutdown), but no evidence of a massive destructive wave. Precursor health quality and sanitation conditions should have resulted in the virus ravaging the homeless. I’m open to sources on this but for now I’m very puzzled.

Latest product rush are garden seeds. Becoming hard to get nationwide.

Hong Kong -
Overwhelmed by corona virus, the Chinese government is definitely not letting the crisis go to waste. They took advantage of a lull in Hong Kong protests to order the arrests of 14 pro-democracy activists and a media tycoon whose newspaper angered authorities. This appears to be the start of an effort to remove pro-democracy leadership while the area is under lockdown conditions. Pro democracy leaders say they will not be deterred. China better remember, several of the protests motived nearly half of the former British colony to take to the streets.

N Korea -
Word leaking out that the government is admitting that there are some areas where the corona virus has gotten a foot hold in the country. Numbers and locations still a state secret but most are believed to be at locations along the China border.

Kim’s absence from the annual Day of the Sun festival day recognizing the founding to the party by his grandfather is still under scrutiny. A day earlier, Kim had failed to attend a session of the supreme people’s assembly, North Korea’s national legislature, where leaders would normally be expected to make an appearance. RUMINT suggest the most likely explanation for his absence is prolonged treatment for a painful leg condition, possibly gout . According to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, Kim hasn’t skipped visiting the mausoleum during the holiday since inheriting power in 2011. State media typically reports on visits to the site the same day or following morning.

E Africa (eventually much of middle east) -
East Africa is expected to get 20 times worse as the United Nations predicts a dramatic increase in swarms throughout Africa and the Middle East in the coming months. This is the second wave of locust, the first passing through earlier this year. Where famine and disease rule, social instability soars, and these areas also have a substantial islamic terrorism campaign(s) ongoing. What is to be seen is if they islamists can win the hearts of the people by providing help, or further terrorize / brutalize them into submission by withholding essentials.

CW2 -
With the attempted shut down of churches during holy week, there is feed back now as to whether or not govt and law enforcement will treat moslems in the same manner as Ramadan starts next week. If they look the other way and all unfettered assemblies, there will be certain pushback. Watch govt and leo claim they “learned” not to oppress religion as a result of the holy week tyranny and won’t apply it to moslems. . .

Week starting off like a rocket it seems.

Wuhan Virus -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

Russia -
Putin has canceled the Victory Day Parade on Red Square on May 9 to prevent spreading of the corona virus.

Hong Kong -
Pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong are planning a new rounds of mass protests. Originally set for July 2020, these protests may ramp up sooner given China’s arrest last week of about 15 pro-democracy leaders. A driver is China’s reinterpretation of key handover treaty agreements with the British and HK residents, claiming it can exert as much dominance as it wants.

Israel -
No unity agreement was made between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White head Benny Gantz after a 90-minute meeting at the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem on Monday. Following the meeting, Gantz headed to the Knesset, where he is expected to allow the advancement of proposed legislation that aims to disqualify Netanyahu from forming a government. It is now very likely that a fourth election will have to be held.

N Korea -
Mystery still surrounds the disappearance of Kim who has not been seen in public for over a week now.

Lebanon -
Due to corona virus restrictions, Lebanon’s economy took a deeper dive over the past few weeks. Now the govt is facing widespread food shortages. The Hezbollah dominated government has been inept in getting aid to its people, generating suspicion that the aid is primarily going to Hezbollah over the rest of the population. Hunger is starting to fuel more anti-government protests across the country. Expect more instability and civil unrest for the rest of the year as corona virus is just another source of anger.

Yemen -
(summary) Since mid-2019 the balance of combat power has shifted as the government coalition lost a lot of their ground troops. This was because the UAE (United Arab Emirates) withdrew most of its forces in late 2019 because of disagreements with Saudi Arabia over strategy and fears in the UAE that Iran might. The UAE has less population and fewer troops than Saudi Arabia. The UAE is also smaller and closer to Iran. The Saudis also lost troops contributions from other Moslem states and has not been able to replace them. This stalled the long, slow, methodical and successful government offensive which had pushed the rebels back. The rebels, encouraged by the steadfast and effective support from Iran, held on. The major weapon the Shia rebels had was Saudi fear of an Iran dominated Yemen.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/yemen/articles/20200420.aspx

CW2/Civil Unrest -
New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy admits he never gave a thought to the U.S. Constitution when he shut down churches and synagogues in his state. Bill de Blasio on Saturday encouraged New Yorkers to report any fellow citizens who they believe are not social distancing by snapping a picture of them and texting it to the authorities. Tactic harkens to that of the stasi.

These actions and more have fueled protests against the oppressive (and practically foolish) virus shut downs continued across the country last week and weekend. True to form, Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events in California, New Jersey, and Nebraska after consultation with state governments (government pandemic censorship).

Oil Prices-
More bad news for the oil industry, prices have plunged again to new lows. This is on news that available storage is almost non-existent. Oil tankers have been filled and sit at anchor in many locations around the world holding oil that can’t be sold. As a major driver of any global economic rebound, gutting production will seriously impair that leg of come back effort the longer this thing drags out. Oil price drop has also generated an initial 500 point Dow drop at the opening.

Black Swans -
A substantially more active hurricane season is being forecast for this season due to warmer than usual Gulf water temperatures and favorable wind pattern aloft.

Locust infestations that began last June are only getting worse. Three generations of breeding occurred in nine months, causing locust numbers to increase by 8,000 times and forming the original source of the East Africa upsurge. Scientists say these devastating insects never left East Africa: in fact, favorable wet conditions due to above average rainfall this season mean they are likely to achieve two more generations of new breeding by June this year, increasing their population size up to 400 times. This is becoming biblical in proportions and as the pattern over the past nine months suggests, it will also spread into the middle east and as far east as China.

Nationally, the trend is more that the peak in new cases is past and there is a definite downward trend in new cases.

The nation and world are working thru the current issues, the next thing to monitor on the horizion is whether or an a second wave of infections will be headed our way this fall in a manner similar to the Spanish Flu. Some key things that have to be worked out before such a comparison can be solidified are:
1. Two different types of viruses
2. Two variations on how the virus attacks the system
3. The effects of WW1 and poorer health care in 1918 vs today
4. Any mutations to the corona virus between now and then.

I don’t want to fear monger this second wave, but it is prudent to be very observant for signs and be prepared/ready early on. My best estimate -one that I’m personally operating under - is that there is a window in the May - October time frame as the current infection dies down. This period is critical to restock supplies as well as monitor and detect changes early on. Best case - a big nothing, worse case a much higher body count and any hope of economic recovery down the tubes to the Great Depression 2.

US -
President Trump signed an executive order suspending immigration in light of the Coronavirus. “In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!” Trump Tweeted.

Nearly 3 million Americans behind by at least one month on their mortgage payments in the week ending April 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. News articles out of Oklahoma indicates that there will be substantial evictions due to non-payment of rent - put on hold only because emergency rules forbid it. When those rules cease, it is expected that the homeless rate will jump to that seen only during the depression.

China -
USS America reportedly is en-route to the South China Sea area to possibly intercept a Chinese government survey ship and several of its China Coast Guard escorts after they ventured into contested waters off the coast of Malaysia - amid an international maritime stand-off between the two Asian nations. The United States called on China to stop its ‘bullying behavior’ in the South China Sea on Saturday, citing concerning reports regarding Beijing’s ‘provocative’ actions aimed toward offshore oil and gas developments in Malaysia’s mineral-rich Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The USS Theodore Roosevelt is temporarily sidelined in Guam after suffering a high-profile coronavirus outbreak on board and the USS Reagan is still at port in Japan with potential corona virus issues as well.

Syria -
IAF hit five targets in central Syria associated with the Tiyas Military Airbase targeted (aka T-4 Airbase) near Palmyra. Area has stationed NDF/ SAA and IRGC. The strikes came hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif was in Damascus where he met with Assad and his Syrian counterpart. Multiple casualites being reported.

Israel -
In a sudden, last minute reversal, Netanyahu and Gantz have come to an agreement to govern, averting a fourth election. From the JPost the key points of the agreement are:
- Netanyahu will remain prime minister for another 18 months and then will be replaced in October 2021 by Gantz, who will serve as vice prime minister in the meantime. Netanyahu will become vice prime minister under Gantz after that – but if he leaves the Prime Minister’s Office sooner, Gantz will take over.
- The deal evenly splits cabinet posts between Likud and Blue and White alliance.
- Annexation of Jewish Settlements and other territory in the occupied West Bank starting in the beginning of July.

N Korea -
Reports from late Monday and early Tuesday indicate that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is in perilous condition after a heart surgery, and U.S. officials are unsure if the despot is dead or alive. S Korean govt says he is not seriously ill while another SK official said they could not confirm - who to believe? This has triggered a closer look at who potential successors to the leadership may be. Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, has become more visible in recent years. She has also been seen with her brother at key summits, both with Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In late 2017 she was named a member of the WPK politburo and she is currently first vice department director of the WPK’s central committee, promotions that added to speculation that she may be being groomed for leadership. The main question is will she have the clout over the military leadership and old guard politicians to effectively replace Kim.

Another possible candidate for leadership, although not a member of the “sacred” Kim dynasty, is Choe Ryong Hae, vice chairman of the WPK, and Kim Jong Un’s de facto No. 2. In December 2018 the Treasury Department targeted Choe, and two other officials, for sanctions for human rights abuses and censorship.

Historical note: When Kim Jong Il died, it took 2 full days before NK media reported the death.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Continued protests over excessive corona virus restrictions across the country yesterday with more on the way.

Oil Prices-
For a short time yesterday, US crude oil prices went to -$36/barrel for a short time yesterday, a sub zero price for the first time in history. This is due to lack of storage and further decline in consumption - beyond the 9 million barrels reduction agreed to earlier this month by OPEC and other producers. Metals spot prices have nose dived again, possibly in response with sales trying to cover losses from petroleum holdings.

Mentioned elsewhere on FR but a good reminder - The CDC is forcing states to recount their coronavirus deaths to include confirmed cases and probable cases. Padding the numbers? Wait, there’s more. The head of the CDC is warning that a second wave of coronavirus could coincide with the start of flu season, proving to be even more devastating than the enduring COVID-19 pandemic. Color me skeptical on this one folks, the abysmally poor performance of the CDC to the corona virus generates a lack of trust in this “forecast”. The current chaos was based upon grossly overestimated infections and deaths that their models still don’t get right. Conspiracy / deep swamp type of thing here.

Iran -
The President tweeted overnight “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” This follows Iranian gunboat harassment of naval vessels in the Arabian sea area April 16th. The last time the President issued such warnings it didn’t go well for Iran. This steps up the game biggly.

Probably associated with the President’s tweet, IRGC Navy Chief to Arabian Gulf states: “If something happens to (US) nuclear fuel ships in the Gulf waters, no living creature and any clean water will remain in the area, for a period of ten to twelve years.”

Overnight, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran announce successful launch of satellite named Noor, designated as a ‘military’ satellite. They state it is in a 425 KM orbit. No word if the orbit is polar or not.

Afghanistan -
Peace talks with the Taliban are not going well. Using tactics common when Islamic terrorists negotiate with anyone, the Taliban agree to terms and then, when it comes time to deliver, insist on changing the terms. The Taliban has also demonstrated, but not admitted, that it cannot control all its factions when it comes to ceasefire agreements. The Taliban violence always continues, although Taliban leaders will not admit it. There are enough dead or wounded civilians and security personnel to refute Taliban excuses. The Taliban apparently believe the Americans will ultimately agree to some kind of deal and get out of the country. If not, the Taliban have already got a lot of their people out of jail and become more intimidating to Afghans who never believed the Taliban could convince the Americans to leave. The Taliban may be overestimating their capabilities. That would not be the first time the Taliban committed a major error and suffered a major setback.
(https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20200421.aspx)

CW2/Civil Unrest -
In Meridian ID, a mother was arrested in front of her children at a playground. About 100 showed up later at the city hall to protest the arrest.

Meanwhile, someone wrote a tweet for Biden accusing President Trump of “fanning the flames of white supremacy and hatred in our country”. I say someone else wrote it because in public lately, Biden has not had the mental facilities to put words into a coherent sentence. The left keeps trying to play the race card going into the election to keep their radical elements happy.

Oil Prices-
Oil industry groups are still in shock over the unprecedented drop in oil prices. The industry was looking at tens of thousands of jobs lost BEFORE the drop. Now those numbers could be in the hundreds of thousands with many smaller oil companies going bankrupt.

The United States Navy’s hospital ship Comfort is departing New York City this week, having been deployed there to assist with the city’s coronavirus surge. It treated just 179 patients during its three-week stay. A fraction of its 1000 bed capacity. Just another piece of evidence that the impacts of this pandemic are grossly overstated by so called medical ‘authorities’.

Health officials suspect the virus has been circulating in the U.S., principally California, since December 2019.

Iran -
More details on the satellite launch. Orbit pegged at 59.8 deg , going far enough north to cover the US in its passage at an altitude of 426 to 444 km. Iran claims it will conduct “intelligence warfare” against the United States. Uncertain as to the capabilities of the satellite as far as intelligence collection goes. Probably imagery, but at what quality and detail, but that is unknown. What is known is that it was used to further its ballistic missile technology for a nuclear delivery system. At its orbital altitude, it is strategically placed in the event that Iran attempts to create a nuclear EMP strike in the future.

Iran continues to promulgate rhetoric threatening US naval assets. Currently the USS Batan group is in the northern Persian Gulf while the USS Eisenhower battle group is in the Arabian Sea.

Iraq/ISIL -
ISIL is still rummaging through the backwater areas of Iraq, but their play area continues to get smaller. They have killed 170 civilians/security so far this year, but have suffered 135 dead. Security operations against ISIL this year have led to the discovery and destruction of 279 hideouts including tunnels, containing weapons, ammo, explosives and IED materials. The most active area are the lands between Baghdad and the Kurdish north. This is populated primarily by Sunni whom ISIL has been favorable towards. Currently, ISIL is attempting to make the most of the corona virus situation which has tied up a lot of Iraqi security resources.

Libya -
The Libyan Government of National Accords’ interior minister is stating that Russian Wagner Units have used Nerve Gas against GNA Forces in Salaheddine area in Southern Tripoli. Currently strongly RUMINT given the source.

China -
Australian warships are joining the task force lead by the USS America in disputed waters of the South China Sea.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Police chiefs from Texas to Washington are standing up against draconian orders from local leaders demanding strict adherence to extreme social distancing measures to curb the spread of the novel Wuhan coronavirus. Most recent example is from Houston where police union members are saying they will refrain from enforcing local County Judge Lina Hidalgo’s ruling deeming it mandatory for any individual over the age of 10 to wear a mask in public.
Washington state’s Snohomish County Sheriff on Tuesday said he will not enforce Gov. Jay Inslee’s stay-at-home order because it is a violation of constitutional rights.

While Kalifornia’s Gov Newsome places bans on protests on ‘state’ property, counties in So Cal are starting to separate themselves from the odious pandemic rule over the state by independently opening up the private sector far ahead of newsom’s ambiguous schedule.

Oil Prices-
President Trump’s threat to sink Iranian fast boats caused oil prices to jump back into the positive zone on fears of shortages in the event of a war.

There are things happening globally besides corona virus

Food supply issues in the US are growing. At least 20 plants have been shut down. There is a 15% drop in total pork production. Consumer demand for meat is up 57%, compounding the issue. Frozen storage facilities report stable supplies. Beef is up 11% from last year, pork up 2% and chicken down 2%. NOTE, this is reflecting MARCH data, April data may show a significant difference. For now, there are adequate supplies to meet demand, but this could change rapidly if there are other disruptions. Food distribution/suppliers are having to deal with a 30% increase in retail sales (grocery stores) across the nation. Commercial suppliers (restaurants, food service, etc) are trying to adjust their production to assist since demand for their products has all but dried up due to closures.

Speaking of food supplies, corona virus impacts to the food supply of many of the third world countries is threatening famine. Combined with the second wave of locusts, it is estimated that as many as 265 Million could starve by the end of 2020. Food riots have already started in some countries.

DHS as published information indicating that the corona virus is just as susceptible to heat and light (probably UV) as other viruses and that summer conditions will self sanitize outdoor environments very efficiently. Meanwhile LA officials are trying to discourage citizens from going to the beach or parks because of ‘social distancing’ concerns.

US jobless increased to 26 million. Unemployment rate over 20%

China is imposing restrictions on Harbin in north-eastern China. They are not at the same level as Wuhan, but could eventually get there.

Venezuela -
There are reports that Venezuela is receiving material from Iran to help restart refinery operations within its country. Both countries have their economies in tatters with the collapse of the oil system. Just what each expects to get out of this is yet to be seen. Venezuela is friendly with Russia, and Russia is not too friendly with Iran, hmmmm.

N Korea -
Information on Kim’s status is still muddled and unknown. Kim reportedly sent a reply on Wednesday to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who congratulated him on the anniversary of his late grandfather’s birth last week, the North’s state media reported. Anyone could have written the message.

ROK DefMin: “NorthKorea ... has been heightening military tensions through an unusual increase in the inspection activities for its combat readiness posture, mostly of its artillery, and in its air force planes’ flight operations.” Makes one wonder even more about the status of Kim.

RUMINT consisting of panic grocery buying this week based on uncertainty of the status of Kim. Sources consisted on non-NK residents passing information to the south.

Lebanon -
Reports overnight that rioting has resulted in Lebanese army checkpoints being burned.

Yemen -
A two-week ceasefire in Yemen announced by a Saudi-led military coalition has expired without leading to a permanent truce, raising fears that the country’s war will grind on and shatter its already weakened ability to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Saudis have been having difficulties of late dealing with the Houti as allies have stepped down and it deals with its own internal matters. Iran’s bankrupt economy has helped, though, reducing military support to Houtis as well as naval blockade efforts to stop the smuggling.

China/Taiwan -
Lt. Anthony Junco, a U.S. Seventh Fleet spokesman, named the ship involved as the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry, and said it had conducted a “routine Taiwan Strait transit” in accordance with international law. This follows a passage by Chinese naval units earlier this week.

CW2/Civil Unrest -
Protesters showed up at the home of one of the police officers that arrested a mother at a park in Meridian, Idaho, for violations of the shelter in place orders. Protests are spreading and so to govt response to prohibit them and arrest organizers as well as participants.

Oil-
USCG reports “Oil tankers carrying enough crude to satisfy 20% of the world’s consumption are gathered off California’s coast..”. Some are wondering, but it isn’t too hard to understand. US waters are probably the safest in the world to park that much oil, when compared to the middle east.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.