Posted on 01/02/2020 5:19:04 PM PST by Godzilla
Threat Matrix 2020
Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.
Breaking
Turkey/Syria/Russia
A lot of departures from Incirlik AFB were noted about an hour ago. Erdogan reported to address the nation shortly (it is after 1 AM local - very unusual). Unconfirmed reports of Russian fighter jets departing Hmeimim heading towards Idlib. Things could be getting hot over N Syria very shortly.
Israel -
More reports of Israeli attack helicopters striking Syrian outposts in the Golan Heights area. Unconfirmed if these sites are also host to Hezbollah operatives as well.
More BREAKING
Turkey/Syria/Russia
Turkey has announced it has placed all known targets of Syrian military under fire with air, ground fire support elements according to the countries communications director. Senior Erdogan aide Ibrahim Kalin is also reported to have had a phone call with US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien tonight, probably to formally inform the US on what is going to happen.
Wuhan Virus -
Iran has so far refused to block pilgrimages to Qom, the current hot spot of Iranian coronovirus breakout. This has the potential to spread the virus to thousand of visitors and spread it throughout the Near East and Central Asia. Currently BBC is reporting at least 210 deaths from the virus while the official report is 34.
Saudi Arabia has cancelled the Haj to Mecca. Other countries are cancelling large events to prevent contamination. With new infections being reported in Netherlands, Lithuania and Nigeria, the WHO has finally elevated the situation to extreme emergency. The past two days more infections have been reported outside of China than inside China.
Markets around the world are essentially in a tailspin over the growing economic impacts of the pandemic. Countries are realizing that if it reaches infection levels even of the common flu, 40-60% of the population could be self quarantined, threatening food, fuel, municipal services etc for many months.
California has a suspected second community infection as a UC Davis student is showing symptoms of virus after being in contact with the infected person. Remember, Kalifornia has a huge homeless crisis that is already struck with a plethora of other diseases. Should it penetrate into that community spread and death rates could be exceptionally high.
ASSESSMENT - the biggest danger to this country is the economic and societial effects lock-down and controls will create. First responders will be hit hard by infections, reducing response ability; hospitals/ERs will not be able to cope; food delivery will be impacted as drivers are ill and unable to drive, etc. Could reach boil over conditions particularly in Blue cities/states.
Turkey/Syria-
Turkish forces are hitting Assad backed SAA forces all throughout Idlib. Turkey has called for NATO and specifically American support. NATO ministers meeting to discuss Article 5 support. An emergency meeting of the UN security council has also been called. So far Turkey and Russia have avoided direct conflict, but Turkey is targeting area the Russia has troops in.
Turkey has also opened its borders to Greece and Bulgaria to allow Syrian refugees passage into Europe. Military from both Greece and Bulgaria are mobilized to block any entrance.
Wuhan virus -
S Korea, Italy and Iran have become major epicenters of infection as daily numbers ofinfected outside China exceed inside China. Iran in particular with at least 7 senior govt leaders infected and one dead seems to be treading the same path of hiding numbers.
In the US a third community infection has been documented. Response of Americans is mixed between near panic mode to ho-hum. If it takes hold here the biggest impacts will be societal, potential food, fuel and medical shortages. Prep now.
Turkey/Syria -
Presidents of Turkey and Russia are talking seeking a way to descalate the situation. So far direct confrontation has been avoided.
Syrian rebels with the more aggressive Turkish support have regained territory in several areas. Assad’s SAA has suffered severe losses of armor, artillery and aircraft to Turkish strikes.
Remember when Texas had those major wildfires and 0moeba cut off all Federal Aid?
Time for a little payback.
Let the posturing treasonous libs have to pay for the quarantines, medical care, lost taxes, etc. from the illegal immigrants / druggies / homeless, all becoming superspreaders, out of their OWN pockets.
WIN!
BREAKING
Turkey/Syria-
Reports of substantial Turkish fighter and ground attacks throughout Idlib and northern Syria. Also reports of Russian aircraft scrambling from Syrian bases. Next few hours are going to be intense.
More bad against worse. I hope we stay out of this.
Wuhan virus -
Now 24 cases of virus with one death in the US as more travel restrictions are set up. In Oregon panic buying has been reported following announcement of infected person from unknown source. In California over 100 healthcare workers are in “containment” following exposure to the country’s first case. Washington state has declared a state of emergency after virus detected in a nursing home (source of nations first death).
In S Korea in the hot zone of Daegu comes this snapshot of the core source The BBC reports that in Daegu, South Korea, 1900 Shincheonji Church members have been tested for coronavirus. 1300 had symptoms & 600 did not. Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed with the virus . BUT out of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with coronavirus This shows the sneaky behavior of this virus and why it is becoming hard to contain.
Economic hardship this pandemic can cause is becoming more apparent. China’s PMI is reported to have dropped 50+% when reported next week. Global markets have gone into tailspin mode. Chinese products and parts largely unavailable and in an interesting twist satellite photos suggest the broad economic shutdown has cleared the air of substantial levels of pollution. In America primary preparation should be directed at economic chaos and not focused on the lethality of the virus (though in itself is high).
Turkey/Syria -
Turkish and Russian plains avoided each other overnight. That lead to heavy Turkish bombing of Assad’s forces in southern Idlib. Rebel forces regained substantial territory lost in previous weeks. Syrian forces are resorting to burning tires to protect from air attacks.
Israel -
Israelis go to the polls for a third time within a year. Recent polls show Netanyahu with a slight advantage.
Afghanistan-
US signed a cease fire agreement/ treaty with taliban. Time will tell if they will hold to their agreement.
Jihad Watch ^ | 1 Mar, 2010 | Christine Douglass-Williams
In a Muslim Brotherhood-style message, “a pro-Islamic State (ISIS) media operative” is advising “ISIS supporters in the West who are not able to join jihad frontlines to wait patiently for the right time to carry out deadly attacks.”
The woman — who goes by the name Greenlantern — delivered a theological message and call to jihad that resembled the message given by 9/11’s mastermind Khalid Sheik Mohammed (KSM), who once advised….
“We will win because Americans don’t realize . . . we do not need to defeat you militarily; we only need to fight long enough for you to defeat yourself by quitting.”
Large-scale attacks such as 9/11 were “nice, but not necessary”
(Excerpt) Read more at
Wuhan Virus -
I’m not going to track the count - many other threads that do that. I’m monitoring the US and the potential impact to this country.
Infections have increased significantly and deaths are being reported in Washington State where virologists indicate that the virus has been making round for as much as 6 weeks already before being detected in the rest home. States with confirmed cases include: WA, OR, CA, AZ, UT, NE, TX, IL, WI, MA, RI, NY, and FL.
New travel restrictions going in place and there is contemplation of a shutdown of the border with Mexico. A closed border will cause economic issues for border states.
Still the best advice out there - up your precautions for typical flu season; hand washing, personal space, recognition of syndromes etc. Add additional vitamins like C and D to your diet to make sure you system is up to speed.
ASSESSMENT - US corporations have been caught with their pants down over outsourcing so much of their production to China. The economic impacts will be relatively long lasting. Already the DOW has lost 12%, shortages of medical materials/drugs becoming evident and that is just the start of the external impacts. Expect another rough week for the markets. Personal Note: My local stores in Kalifornia have sold out of masks and hand sanitizer as well as having lowered stocks of hydrogen peroxide and rubbing alchol. No signifcant rush on food stuffs yet. For grins and giggles I checked amazon for sanitizer prices - Hold your hats - an 8 oz bottle that typically sold for under $4 was being offered for $44.
Two areas of concern for spreading. One are rest home/nursing centers and the second is the west coast homeless population. Personal note again, my MIL was caught in a Norovirus outbreak that swept thru a hospital she was in then followed her to a nursing home. These folks have very compromised resistance to infections. Very evident from the rest home in Washington State, where 27/108 residents and 25/180 staff have reported symptoms. Homeless are equally compromised and abysmal hygiene promises to pass the virus quickly and then into the down town area were the rest of the world comes to work - spreading it eventually to the suburbs. Very troublesome potential for spread.
Turkey/Syria/Russia-
Turkey reported that this offensive has neutralized 2,200 Syrian regime troops, a drone, 8 helicopters, 103 tanks, tens of howitzers, 3 air defense systems during the operation. Overnight Turkey also shot down two Syrian warplanes. Turkish backed forces continued to regain territory in southern Idlib lost over the course of the past few weeks.
Erdogan’s call to NATO last week has not garnered the support he hoped for. Both Turkey and Russia are knife-edged close to all out open conflict. Iran has reportedly threatened Turkey as well with direct attacks.
Turkey has kept their border crossings open, bringing Greek and Bulgarian forces into conflict with millions of Syrian refugees trying to enter Europe. So far both countries have refused entry.
Iran/Wuhan Virus -
Gaining its separate post. An adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died from the new corona virus. Mohammad Mirmohammadi, 71, was an Expediency Council member who advised Khamenei and settled disputes between him and parliament. COVID-19 has already infected Iran’s vice president and deputy health minister. Incredible number of Iranian leaders have been infected. The Iranian parliament has announced it will stop meeting temporarily with 4 of the lawmakers testing positive for the virus. Iran has reported the highest number of causalities outside of China. Meanwhile the ruling clergy are still encouraging pilgrims to go to Qom, lick the temple and such. If these actions and indicators are correct, the elderly religious rules are at high risk of death from the virus, cleaning out the despots.
Protests broke out between security forces and citizens angry at the government’s handling of the crisis with videos surfacing on social media of clashes. Add to this the abyssal economics, ongoing expenditures of money to support proxy wars over civil needs, abusive crackdowns and other violations, continued protests are expected for the future.
Sanctions/crushed economy, plague of locusts and now the Wuhan virus has placed Iran on the ropes. They will be hard pressed to do much with so much on their plate in the homeland.
N Korea -
Popped of a couple short range missiles overnight. Historically NK has tested missile in the spring. Their country leadership is conducting meeting via video conference to avoid Wuhan virus contamination.
CW2 -
BLM took over the stage at a Kolbuchar rally in St Lewis last night. It is an interesting turn that this leftist group is turning on a left-center democrat candidate. I think this is evidence that these leftist groups are going to become more vocal/active in order to keep pushing the democrat party further to the left.
On the road this week
Wuhan virus -
Infections increase across the US. Panic buying in some communities. Amazon deleted “millions” of items for not meeting their truth in advertising policy. Last look they haven’t deleted the $44 bottles of $3 hand sanitizers
Israel -
Netanyahu won out right last night ending a years worth of uncertainty. Hamas et al remained generally quiet except for one rocket that misfired and landed in Gaza.
Iran -
27 members of parliament infected with Wuhan virus.
CW2 -
Biden received the endorsement of several former candidates for president. In Texas he announced he’d place Beto in charge of gun policy. In doing so he torpedoed attempts to claim a more moderate position.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
More potential economic chaos as US banks have begun testing crisis plans if a broader outbreak prevents staff from going to work. This includes teleworking and reduced staffing. Such plans could impact business interaction with banks, slowing the ability to respond. The results will likely be more intense gyrations of the stock market.
The most dramatic response so far is from Kings County, WA that is urging approximately 2.2 million residents to stay at home and those over 60 to stay indoors. This could be a prequil to mandatory lockdowns.
Many are looking to a national emergency declaration and mobilization of DHS assets and other resources to assist states. This could be a good or bad thing depending on the attitude of the state involved. Monitoring.
Turkey/Syria/Russia-
The Turkish offensive in Idlib continues with over the last four days, two Turkish brigades crossing into Syria accompanied by artillery, armed UAVs and F-16s. The Turks claim to have destroyed over a hundred Syrian armored vehicles, most of them tanks, along with two Su-24 fighter-bombers, eight helicopters and numerous unarmored vehicles. In spite of this, Russia hasn’t directly confront Turkey. Talks between the two countries are expected within the next couple days.
Israel -
Struck Hezbollah sites near Homs Syria overnight, currently has airspace restricted over the Golan today. Generally this has become a routine airstrike for Israel. With Turkey demolishing so much of the Syrian ADA capability in Idlib, its overall capability is stretched thin, giving Israel some additional leeway.
With Netanyahu’s win in the 3d election, the current parliament is still in session and passed a bill forbidding an indicted person from being PM as well as establishing (retroactively) term limits. This will no doubt create even greater chaos as Israel tries to establish a new government.
CW2 -
A democrat (Candi CdeBaca) councilwomen in Denver tweeted supporting deliberately spreading Wuhan virus as Trump rallies. Given the proclivities of the left to engage in violent / dangerous behavior, this threat should be taken seriously.
Susan Daniels was the original tweeter; both need investigating & charged with making Terr oristic threats at minimum.
Susan Daniels was the original tweeter; both need investigating & charged with making Terr oristic threats at minimum.
Such threats are at a minimum good enough to have the twitter account banned/closed.
COVID-19 UPDATE VIA E-MAIL —
“There are rumors that #SaudiArabia’s king died and that his son, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is about to assume the king’s position soon. That might explain the overnight detention of dozens of the royal family members to avoid any possible coup.”
1,200 posted on 3/7/2020, 12:44:07 PM by Dark Wing (terrorism, disease, public health)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3822365/posts?page=1200#1200
The king was at deaths door anyways.
Let’s hope this new one is on our side as much as Saudi can be on our side.
Report: Iran Arrests Man for Photographing Piles of Coronavirus Victim Bodies
BREITBART ^ | March 6, 2020 | Frances Martel
Reports out of Iran indicate that police apprehended an unnamed man this week after a video surfaced showing piles of corpses, presumably of Chinese coronavirus victims, at a mortuary in Qom, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the country.
Following the publication of the video on social media, multiple reports have corroborated evidence that Iran is experiencing an extremely high coronavirus death rate, potentially much higher than the official government numbers. CNN published a report Thursday similarly relaying the dire images of piles of bodies too large for government health workers to know what to do with and confirming that Iranian state media admitted the video was real.
The Saudi news outlet Al-Arabiya reported the arrest of the unnamed man on Wednesday, citing Iran International TV. It did not offer any details regarding if the man was indeed arrested in Qom or where Iranian police took him, as Iran admitted to freeing tens of thousands of prisoners this week in an attempt to prevent a pandemic within the prison system.
Similarly, the New York Post reported the arrest of one person in association with the filming of the video but offered no more information on the person. The Post noted that the online origin of the video appeared to be Iranian journalist Mohamad Ahwaze, who described the whistleblower behind the video as a member of the medical staff attempting to handle the crisis.
The gruesome video shows bodies in black bags lined on the floor at a health facility; the narrator, in Farsi, reportedly describes them as coronavirus victims and laments that the government’s ineptitude has made it impossible to offer these individuals a proper burial.
Now Western security and intelligence officials say the Bulgaria poisonings were a critical clue that helped expose a campaign by the Kremlin and its sprawling web of intelligence operatives to eliminate Russia’s enemies abroad and destabilize the West.
[snip]
Entering his third decade in power, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is pushing hard to re-establish Russia as a world power.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com …
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3802827/posts
Ping me if yo hear any follow up.
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