Threat Matrix 2020

Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.

Israel / US Peace Plan
On cue, Palestinians wasted no time mounting a violent response. Riots near Hebron have reportedly resulted in IDF firing live rounds. Other protests getting ramped up in other towns in the west bank such as Rafah and Ramallah. Hamas has officially announced its rejection and declares it will overthrow it. Protests now reported ramping up in Gaza.

Warning - not sure if Hamas/PIJ will launch rocket attacks in response. This would escalate the situation far above protests. At this stage I am inclined to think not - important stage in forming international support for their side of the story, so to speak. Bad PR. PIJ is a hot head group with very close ties to Iran and may buck Hamas’ leadership on this as they have other times recently.

SARS -
The British paper The Independent is reporting that patients in Germany and Japan who caught the coronavirus did not visit China. Interesting development.

Wuhan epidemic and the impeachment circus flooding my new sources

Israel / US Peace Plan
Quote of the day from Jared Kushner “Its a big opportunity for the Palistianians and they have a perfect track record of blowing every opportunity they’ve had in the past . . . . .” Violence and rioting continued overnight across the West Bank and Gaza in opposition to the plan. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and UAE all welcomed the plan. Jordan and Turkey were critical of the plan.

The PA’s (Abbas) options are limited. They could try to rally for a ‘third intifanda’, but hinges on the motivation of the West bank residents and their relatively good economy as compared to Gaza. An new intifanda would likely damage that economy.

Hamas’ hands are also limited. They could adopt a full military confrontation, but that would likely lead to Israel launching a ground offensive and elimiating all Hamas’ control and military resources. They could inflict casualites, but the Israeli population has been favorable of a ground offensive to remove the almost constant rocket/mortar attacks on their cities.

Wuhan Coronovirus -
Numbers infected and killed keep increasing. Various outlets say China is reporting 9239 cases with 132 deaths. Continued concerns about the accuracy of these numbers both for potential propaganda, length of incubation time and China running out of test kits. Keep these factors in mind when reading/hearing numbers. It has reportedly surpassed the SARS epidemic of a few years ago. Australian scientists have successfully grown copies of the virus in a lab, enabling more detailed testing and evaluation.

First batch of US citizens evacuated from the Wuhan region were flown into March AFB in California where they will be kept under observation (and probably tested) for the virus before being released. Germany, Japan, Britain, Australia and India are also evacuating citizens from Wuhan.

Syria -
Assad has essentially won his war, but his economy is in shambles and being propped up by Iranian cash (causing problems in Iran). But it doesn’t mean that all is calm. Outside of western Syria, the predominant population is Sunni arab that are favorable to the rebels. Brutial reprisals abound to spread terror and force aquesence to the Assad regime.

Iraq -
Continued protests with iranian supported militas still using lethal methods to drive anti government protestors off the streets.

Taal Volcano-
The Phillippine govt has lowered the watch level from 4 to 3. There are still concern of a major eruption but the current activity level suggests that such an event is not as imment as first thought.

Seems quiet, but I think much is being overwhelmed by Wuhan and impeachment shenanigans.

Wuhan Coronovirus -
Data reported by China (01/30/20) has 7783 confirmed cases with 170 deaths (2.1% mortality rate). It has also spread to every region in mainland China. 105 comfirmed cases have been reported elsewhere. Researchers continue to be concerned about the accuracy of the Chinese numbers and rumors of deliberate number fudging abound.

Yesterday, POTUS announced the formation of a coronavirus response task force. They reportedly been meeting since Monday.

Israel-
Hamas/PIJ shooting at Israeli military posts, Israel responds by blowing up Hamas facilities. Continued, sporatic IED balloon attacks. Pretty much standard fare. Very little news concerning continued palistanian protests to the Trump peace proposal. Noted yesterday, support of the plan by arab nations traditionally supporting the PA may have taken a lot of wind out of Abbas’ options to respond. Hamas’ desire to attain some kind of a truce with Israel the same. Hezebollah is relatively quiet with no overt actions observed so far.

Wuhan virus and impeachment continue to flood the interwebs.

Wuhan Coronovirus -
The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.
Overnight the US State Department issued a Level 4 (Do Not Travel) advisory for the entirety of mainland China. Currently 22 countries have confirmed cases of people infected by the Wuhan virus.

At the end of Thursday (local), China announced 9810 confirmed infections, (15,238 suspected) and 213 deaths (2.2%). Again, many continue to question if China is low-balling the numbers.

Israel-
More rockets and mortars were fired into southern Israel from Gaza over night. In response Israel bombed a number of Hamas facilities. So far both sides have been relatively restrained in their action/reaction following the release of the peace plan. Again, Israel states it holds Hamas totally responsible for any attacks launched by any Gaza based group. Additional ground gun/tank fire continuing into today as it is also the standard Friday “return” protests.

With 31 days until the 3rd national elections and with the peace plan on the table, it will be interesting to see just what Hamas, PIJ (et al) and Hezbollah do to influence both.

Also today, Israel conducted another test launch of its Jericho 3 missile. This new missile can easily strike Tehran (1600 Km) with a potential max range of 4000 Km.

Iran/Persian Gulf -
France has announced the start of a European naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz to guarantee the freedom of navigation throughout the Persian Gulf, and to promote deescalation with Iran.

N Korea -
OSINT / commercial satellite information indicates that there are no signs of a pending launch or engine test preparations at the Sohae launch facility. Information does indicate ongoing facility maintenance. Some are musing if the ‘Christmas present’ will be a Valentine’s day gift?

Short and sweet.

Wuhan virus -
Don’t have good “official” numbers today other than confirmed cases and deaths continue to grow. A mile marker being watched for is the expansion of infections currently hidden due to the 10-14 days before symptoms appear and asymtomatic transmission.
Social media appears to be submitting to Chinese censorship. Twitter has deleted accounts and Facebook announced it will censor false reports based off chinesse complaints.

Israel /PA peace plan -
Abbas called for an emergency meeting of the Arab league. He isn’t finding much support. Abbas also announced the PA is cutting off all contacts and agreements with Israel and the US.
Analysis. He can cut things off, but when the pinch hits the people’s pocket books he’ll be pushed back. The Palestinians in the West Bank have been doing well over the past few years having stopped serious attacks against Israel. That is the biggest gorilla in the room Abbas has to face.

Israel/Gaza -
Rocket / mortar attacks increased overnight with a corresponding increase in Israeli air strikes. Israel holding Hamas responsible for attacks by any group.

CWW -
Impeachment winding down but Antifa rioting in New York provides clues to components of leftist violence potential in urban strong holds. Directed against the police and subway ops they overwhelmed police. Imagine if they start targeting conservatives or Jews in the same manner. Urban environment allows them to mass, attack and melt back into the city. That tactic will be less successful in suburban areas and definitely not rural areas since they will be exposed more. This is why many think any “war” will be fought at the urban/suburban interface.

For the start of your Monday

Wuhan Coronovirus -
Reported infections more than doubled over the weekend with 21,558 cases reported in China (BNO News). Death numbers have doubled as well. Again, this relies upon China accuately reporting the numbers and has been the hardest issue to crack. This sizeable jump is an ill harbenger of potential pandemic.

Confirmed cases are increasing globally and in the Phillipines is the first reported death. Concern is the potential infection of others during asymptomatic development in the now confirmed cases. Because of the low numbers, medical facilities are able to isolate and treat the infected, something that isn’t available to those in China where the system is overwhelmed, even with the new hospitals built short order. The epidemic has also infected stock markets around the world, causing massive sell offs and increased volitality.

BTW, three animal viruses are hitting china hard as well. Two different diseases killing pigs and a new avain influensa killing poultry.

Israel-
PIJ is looking over its shoulder much more as it and other terror groups are increasingly concerned that Israel may launch some ‘assassination’ strikes in retalitation for continued rocket and mortar attacks over the weekend. The PIJ in particular is in the cross hairs, given that it has shot off most of the rockets for the past two weeks. Israel has also blocked shipments of cement into Gaza, knowing full well that Hamas and other terror groups will hijack most of it to rebuild the bunkers/facilities that Israel has blown to smithernes, and not to civilians.

Palistianian protests over the proposed Trump peace plan have not influenced any of its arab allies. Those allies are tired of sending the PA money and getting nothing in return.

Iran -
Iran announced that it will launch a satellite by the end of the week. US and other nations link such to illicit program to design nuclear capable ballistic missiles. OSINT sources are scanning commercial satellite imagry for clues, but cloudy weather has been hampering the efforts.

Iraq -
Anti govt protests continued over the weekend in Bagdad and throughout the country in response to the appointment by President Barham Salih’s appointment of Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi as prime minister-designate. Anti-government protesters in Iraq have been quick to dismiss President Barham Salih’s appointment of Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi as prime minister-designate. Allawi tried reaching out to the protestors by stating solidarity with their greivences, but the protestors are not convinced. They threaten to escalate protests. Sadr supporters (pro-Iranian) fought with anti-govt protestors in numerous cities over the week end as well. Expect continued rioting as I doubt that Iran (and its Iraqi proxies) will permit a pro-sunni leader to fill the seat.

Syria -
Turkish and Syrian forces exchanged serious artillery fire overnight as Syrian elements push on towards Idib. The most serious clash of the two forces in a long time.

Globally things seem quiet, but like the duck sitting calmly on the surface, its legs are paddling furiously under the surface

Wuhan Coronovirus -
Numbers of new cases are starting to grow substantially in China and around the world. China alone reported 3235 new cases, with globally recognized cases over 20,000. The chart of these numbers is starting to show signs of exponential growth. It has only taken about 4 days to go from 10K to 20K cases whereas it took 14+ days to get the first 10K. Another number gaining closer scrutiney is the estimate that about 25% of the infections require hospitalization for intensive treatment. Still a lot of mixed information coming out of China with continued charges of fudged numbers.

Europe/ISIS -
There have been three knife attacks in europe in the past two days. Two in Britain and now one in France. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In response to the attacks in Britain, the parliment has introduced emergency legislation to end early release of terror offenders. Both attackers in Britain were recently released from prison before their attacks. I can see this trend continuing in the near term.

Iraq -
No surprise here, Iran welcomes the appointment Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi as prime minister-designate. Protests against the govt continue.

Syria -
Things are heating up in Syria. Turkish and Syrian forces continue to slug it out with Turkey reportely hitting Syrian forces with airstrikes. Reports coming out now suggest that the Turks have shelled Russian military positions in the Afrin region. Erodgan issued a statement that Turkey will not allow Syrian govt forces to advance in Idib. Meanwhile, near the eastern end of Turkey’s buffer zone, US forces blocked passage of a Russian patrol near the town of Tel-Tamr. This is about the third US blockage of Russian movements in the past week.

May have missed a few items this busy morning for me. If so please post to thread.

Wuhan Virus -
Infected jumped to over 24,500 with even more deaths. This indicates that the Ro is still in the 3 - 4 range and the mortality rate at least 2%. More infections have been reported outside of china overnight. Rampant rumors of gross under reporting by China.
Overnight two chartered aircraft brought US citizens to Travis AFB for screening and monitoring.

Israel -
A near typical night. IED balloons and a few rockets launched at Israel who responds with more airstrikes against Hamas related facilities. Hamas announced that the Friday “return to the land” protest marches will officially resume the end of March. They stopped endorsing them as part of an olive branch offering to Israel. The threat to resume is designed for leverage to gain concessions from Israel.

CW2 -
Last nights 4 yr old temper tantrums by congressional democrats and the speaker in particular are evidence of the disgust the left holds for Americans. In this case, overall the polled 79% of viewer who watched and approved of the SOTU address. If optics mean anything - we got an eyeful last night. All this points to the fact that the political leadership of the democrat party condones this attitude against America. Radical leftists will gain traction seeing their ‘leadership’ support and likely increase their violence and intimidation tactics against the right as the election season moves on. Expect the envelope to be pushed severely. Today the President will be acquitted of the bogus impeachment charges, an act that will further enrage the mental cases on the left. Be prepared for increasing violence and have a plan.

I think the acquittal is the beginning point of the final unraveling of the liberals. Their bullying and constant lying didn’t work. They are left with the options of starting new impeachment proceedings (likely), only this time they may actually push/fight to have some witnesses appear. This option is countered by the fact that it will take a lot longer to accomplish AND the party will be in the midst of an election year that has momentum to remove the power of the house from democrats.
The other option is to try to force another rushed impeachment - likely attaining the same results.
Or finally, increasing voter intimidation and violence to silence/nullify trump supporters. I think this latter one is going to happen no matter what - the fringe left is all to set and primed to rampage.

Busy weekend weekend, trying to catch up.

Wuhan Virus -
The total numbers under quarenteen is now over 400 MILLION. This gives credence to the opinion of many that China is not accurately reporting the numbers - or is so overwhelmed they can’t keep up with the numbers. Independent analysis by medical folks indicate that of those who have a serious infection requiring hospitalization, the mortality rate is near 20% (overall the mortality rate is hanging at 2%). Since these numbers are based on China sources, I think they could be high because the level of care just isn’t there to begin with. I don’t trust all the reports of mass arrests, mass burials, mass cremations or the like at this stage, too extreme and sourcing quality questionable. I do believe the real numbers are substantially higher, given that 400 million are in lock down with over 40,000 reported cases (and over 900 reported deaths).

Of note is that the infections are starting to increase outside of China now. Need to watch that closely. WHO issuing warnings that a full blown pandemic is increasingly possible.

Secondary impacts - economic. Voices are raising the concern that with the lockdowns, factories are shutting down for an unspecified period of time. Many companies still have much of their supply chain rooted in China - covering a broad spectrum of items. This is causing market concerns not just in the US but globally as well. If this isn’t enough to encourage companies to return manufacturing to America, nothing can.

Israel -
Standard responses to Gaza based rocket/mortar/sniper/IED balloon attacks. Israel increasingly warning that they will use decapitation attacks to take out senior leadership should these attacks continue.

Lebanon -
More protests against the Hezbollah backed government recently installed in Lebanon. The see the country being made a proxy for Iran and forming a base for Hezbollah to try to exert control over the region as well as a base to attack Israel from. Hezbollah militas have been very heavy handed in attacking protestors since they started in October. As in Iraq, protestors see Iran backing corrupt govt entities.

Iran -
Iran failed to insert a satellite into orbit this weekend, the fourth failure in as many attempts. The rocket program is a covert attempt to develop platforms to eventually be able to launch a nuclear warhead. Analysts suggest that Iran has enough enriched Uranium to make a final push to the weapons grade level within a year, though it us uncertain if they have a weapon (or plans for one) and is small enough to fit on one of their rockets. Much concern that they may have gotten plans from N. Korea’s weapon testing.

Syria/Turkey -
Increased tensions and artillery exchanges between Turkish and Syrian forces around the town of Idlib. Turkey warning Syria it faces potential counterattacks if they do not pull back in accordance with and earlier agreement. Turkey has been moving substantial armor and manpower to the region over the weekend and has become a serious potential flash point.

CW2-
Democrat rhetoric appears to be setting off some loose cannons. In DC, a guy was arrested with a knife claiming he was there to kill the President. He was arrested in placed under mental observation. In Jacksonville FL, an man intentially drove his van into a Republican tent were they were registering voters. Though under arrest, I’m still looking to see who he is affiliated with - as are other freepers.
Combined with the violent dreams and statements by Bernie campaign staffers, the potential is there for serious violence - just need a triggering event.

Wuhan Virus -
Reports surfacing that the test kits for the virus China has mass produced have a very high failure rate (as much as 70%). Not good as it would permit infected individuals to be released to the general public to transmit the disease if true. Adding to this, it is being reported that China has been excluding asymptomatic cases (infections with not symptions) from its official count in contradiction to WHO guidelines.

Reported numbers for 10 Feb - 42,729 confirmed, 1013 fatalities (2.4%)

Meanwhile, WHO is out with concerns about the probability of infections appearing that are no longer associated with travel to china. From the start WHO has been essentially worthless and China has only recently let a small team of WHO researchers into the country to examine things first hand.

N Korea -
Mentioned yesterday under the Wuhan virus, but today stands alone for the simple reason of the secondary impacts the asian epidemic has had. Desperate to prevent the virus spread, NK has completely closed its border with china now for over three weeks. That means imports of food and fuel are not arriving. The country has no reserves to draw upon to begin with and what there is is reserved for the military, and this wont last much longer. Sanctions PLUS Wuhan virus has been a double wammy to the NK people.

Israel -
Arab states are calling on Abbas to ‘lower the volume’ on his opposition to the Trump peace plan, concerned that it would create greater instability in the region. OTOH, Abbas is taking heat from other Palestinians for failing to take ‘real measures’ to oppose the plan.
Terrorists in Gaza claim they will stop IED balloon attacks, but so far there are no indicators of it ceasing. In Gaza, Egyptian diplomats have reportedly warned Hamas to stop supporting Iranian interests in favor of the proposed peace plan.

Syrian forces have launched a significant offensive against Aleppo, capturing key terrain and roads.

CW2-
Anyone heard of what the political stance of the guy who drove into the Republican tent a couple of days ago? I’m getting silence. My guess is a democrat leftist not affiliated with Bernie - Why? - because if a bernie supporter, the anti-bernie democrat elements would have put it out as part of their effort to stymie his campaign.

More threats against college republican groups. Very few incidents of violence against attendees at recent Trump rallies. Could be because increased citizen readiness to protect attendees during the critical time following the end of the event. A contributing factor may be the antifa types just don’t like to leave their warm basements at momma’s house. Expect things to heat up as the weather improves.

According to Breitbart - VA state police refuse to rule out door-to-door enforcement of a suppressor ban. By projection, that leaves open door-to-door acts based on the other laws being passed. July is when these laws come into force - we will see what the sanctuaries do when state police start showing up in their jurisdictions.

Info seems to be slow today. Here’s some things I’m following.

Wuhan Virus -
A few days ago there were many reports that SO2 monitoring indicated the substantial burning of dead virus victims. This has generally been debunked. OSINT has shown that the high SO2 in the Wuhan area is centered over a steel mill.

China claims that the infection rate has decreased, health specialists around the world remain skeptical. Latest numbers - 45,171 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,115 fatalities.

Israel/Gaza -
There are reports that security of the various terrorist faction leaders has been increased due to fear of Israeli targeted assassinations. Netanyahu has publicly spoken about special responses to Hamas and its allied factions. Meanwhile, standard night of scattered rocket/mortar/IED balloon attacks and Israeli retaliation.

Syria/Turkey -
Erdogan warns Syria that if Turkish troops are attacked, they will retaliate not only in Idlib but throughout Syria. Situation is escalating as Syrian forces push further into the Idlib area.

US / Syria
US forces skirmished briefly with Syrian units at a checkpoint. One Syrian killed, one wounded. No US causalities.

Iraq -
Things have dropped off the radar to a degree due to Wuhan virus and US political action. Protests continue and Iran presses its allies and proxy militias to force US out of Iraq. Some analysis seems to indicate that the support to expel the US by these elements is starting to wane due to Iranian insistence on using violence as a driving force. This has been evidenced by Muqtada Sadr, a soft Iranian supporting Shia, who initially mobilized his militias to attack protesters. In doing so he became associated as being just another opportunistic pro-Iranian Iraqi leader. He has since stopped offensive actions against the protesters.

CW2 -
In light of the socialist takeover of the democrat party, here is a good primer on why the left is violent.
https://disrn.com/opinion/opinion-socialism-must-have-violence

Here is what is catching my eye today

Wuhan Virus -
A couple days ago I noted that China was underreporting asymptomatic infections (WHO protocols). Seems they caught up with vengence overnight with a huge jump in both infected and dead. Deaths jumped because they misrepresented the cause of death separate from the virus. For example, deaths were stated to be due to pnunomia when it was caused as a secondary effect by the virus. Numbers fluxuating, but one new count reported over 60,349 infections and about 1370 deaths. This is a jump of nearly 15,000 new cases. So we are still talking a mortality rate in the 2.2% range, and a likely higher Ro. Around the world, the number of new cases continue to grow, the only bright spot is that it appears the mortality rate is very low in comparison to China.

Israel/West Bank (PA) -
Good read at the following link on the below the surface relations between Israel and PA in the West Bank. This is one of the reasons the West Bank has been calm versus the continued turmoil in Gaza.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20200213.aspx

Syria/Turkey -
Situation is still escalating as Syrian forces push further into the Idlib area.

Venezulea -
Mostly quiet, got noisy after the elected president Juan Guaido’s appearance at the SOTU address. Yesterday he returned to Venezula and was immediately set upon by a mob organized by Maduro. Since the crisis there last year, a very much bimodal society has developed. An elite class enjoying the ‘benefits’ of graft from Maduro and an underclass of very poor. Violence by Maduro organized militias keeps the underclass in check.

Friday morning mania - here’s what’s on my radar

Wuhan Virus -
Big numbers still, 64,456 infected and 1384 deaths (2.1%). NOTE: these numbers vary to some extent based upon sources and even times of the day. Center of mass still China, with some growth outside. China continuing to receive appropriate criticism from WHO and other health agencies around the world. Worse, health care workers are being infected at an increasing rate.
The massive quarantine (last count over 400 million) has thrown China’s manufacturing into a tailspin and it’s impacting global markets probably more than the infection itself. For example, overnight Singapore’s PM has stated the economic impact has already exceeded that of the SARS outbreak in 2003 and threaten to create a recession.

Israel -
Overnight IAF struck Iranian targets in Damascus area suspected of being ammunition depots. This is a continuation of Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s influence in Syria as well as interrupt supplies slated for Hezbollah in Lebanon. These attacks serve to further drain Iran’s already strained finances and humiliate its leadership’s inability to respond.

Syria/Turkey -
Situation is still escalating as Syrian forces push further into the Idlib area. 10 Turkish outposts surrounded by Syrian backed militias and army. Russian airstrikes hit Idlib and surrounding villages. Another Syrian helicopter was shot down overnight in the Aleppo area.

Persian Gulf / Iran -
Yesterday, USN intercepted an Iranian dhow and confiscated 150 anti-tank guided missiles (Iranian copies of the Russian Kornet ATGM). The dhow was en-route to Yemen and the munitions were likely for Houthi fighters. Houthi are essentially proxy fighters for Iran against Saudi Arabia.

CW2 -
Increasing numbers of violence against Trump supporters in daily reports embedded in alternative media (MSM refuses to comment). One can label at this time ‘lone wolf’ attacks. These seem to be the most mentally imbalanced of the liberal democrats being triggered. Increase began after the Florida van attack on republicans and now includes assaults on a 15 year old, a fire bomb attack on a republican campaign office, and others.
Antifa seems to be trying to come back into importance, particularly in the Portland area. They were humiliated by the VA pro-2d amendment march. As Bernie continues to lead the democrat polling I’m not sure just what their long term game is. Increased protests have backfired, but intimidation of opponents does provide them with some short term gains - particularly in recruiting.
There are more and more antifa affiliated ‘shooting clubs’ developing/organizing across the country. While in many instances their weapon proficiency is laughable, there appears to be a core element that has combat veterans that is encouraging and training these soyboys. I have no doubt they are also selectively recruiting the more proficient ones for more detailed tactical training. At this time I don’t see them being capable to match Patriots (3%, militias, etc) but they appear to be working hard to attain parity and even localized superiority.

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