Go camping for a weekend . . . .
Iran/US
Catching up on the news that POTUS stopped a military strike minutes before it was set to pull the tigger because he felt the loss of life wasn’t proportional to the loss of equipment. The target was Iranian air defense equipment/locations. Well I was on target last week saying those were the probable targets and that POTUS was going to be proportional with this response. His last minute recall was a good move IMHO because it grants his diplomatic staff to build up the resolve of supporting Gulf nations and other allies. Also, additional sanctions are being imposed. Iran responds that the only way to prevent war is to lift the sanctions.
The cyber attack apparently had some degree of success but hard to gauge. This does open the gate for more aggressive Iranian cyberattacks on us.
Iran’s military threatens more drone shoot downs as well as threatening US naval vessels. This would be a death wish as the POTUS has made it very clear - that is a red line of death for iran.
US force build up continues with the Navy reporting the USS Boxer is enroute to the Gulf.
Hindu business on line is reporting that the Shipping Corporation of India oil tanker Desh Vishal has become the first Indian-flagged crude carried to allow the Indian Navy to board the ship for escorts throughout the Persian Gulf.
Current evaluation - US and Iran are evaluating last week’s activity. While Iran got a publicity bounce from the shootdown, the event has provided more fuel for other gulf nations to be ready to push back. POTUS has the big hammer and Iran still knows it and shouldn’t see the US restraint as weakness.
CW2 -
New one here. Oregon senators leave the session to prevent voting on a disasterous environmental bill. Oregon Gov Brown threatens and orders state troopers to capture and return them.
This could become the first kenetic action. These senators are from very red areas of the state and local patriots are ready to defend them. This would be round three of patriots rising up. The actions of the Oregon state police in the Malhur incident is still fresh on the minds of many patriots. As the saying goes - you can vote yourself socialism but you have to shoot your way out. Keep monitoring.
Turkey/Greece
Tensions rising between these two countries as Turkey is seen as intruding on Greek territorial waters. This may be serving to deflect Turkish attentions from Erodegen’s recent elections losses.
Israel
Still preparing for potential Hezbollah/Iranian supported attacks. Any attacks would likely be in response to US strikes as any strikes by Iran (or its proxies) at this level would cross the clearly stated red line the POTUS has laid out.
Leftist/Antifa
Well school’s out and antifa is becoming more aggressive. Doxxing campaigns on Tucker Carlson and threat to new Freshmen at UT Austin are just the beginning. Major socialist democrat lead urban areas may see increasing activity as the summer progresses.
Belgium
Terrorist arrested for plot against the US embassy. As the situation with Iran continues, I expect more of these type of plots to pop up.
Lull before the next storm
Iran
POTUS increased sanctions against Iran targeting its leadership and billions in assets. Iran replied that diplomacy is no longer on the table - permanently .
According to earlier Iranian statements, they will exceed the earlier agreed to amounts of enriched uranium within the next two days. Iran has also announced that around July 7th they will start enriching to 20%. Given the participation of Iranian scientists with N. Korea and the development of their nukes, very high probability Iran has plans for a functional nuclear weapon and only needs the fissile material to complete it.
RUMINT is that Iran will start making further moves to inhibit passage through the straits. My guess it will be mines that they will deny using.
My assessment - Iran is weighing its options under the new sanctions. They can either directly strike out at US assets like they did the drone, or they could use proxy forces to step up attacks. So far, the proxy efforts haven’t been too effective imho.
Israel/Gaza
Israel has halted fuel transfers because of continued pyro-balloon attacks. This means Gaza only has a very short time before its generators shut down and the area goes dark.
CW2
Well, the republican boycott of the Oregon senate continues. None have been ‘captured’ and reports that most are holed up in Idaho (good patriot redoubt country). Oregon leftists are going certifiably nutz over this but have no path forward. The legislative session ends shortly and that will kill this unpopular bill. The only other way they could then try to pass it is to open a special session - which the republican could use the same tactics to thwart once again. Thursday there is a pro-republican rally being organized at the state capitol to provide citizen push-back against the leftists. My major concern is that antifa will show up and try to disrupt with violence. Keep a watchful eye on this potential flash point, since I’m pretty sure there will be plenty of III percenter types there ready to rumble as well.