Lull before the next storm
Iran
POTUS increased sanctions against Iran targeting its leadership and billions in assets. Iran replied that diplomacy is no longer on the table - permanently .
According to earlier Iranian statements, they will exceed the earlier agreed to amounts of enriched uranium within the next two days. Iran has also announced that around July 7th they will start enriching to 20%. Given the participation of Iranian scientists with N. Korea and the development of their nukes, very high probability Iran has plans for a functional nuclear weapon and only needs the fissile material to complete it.
RUMINT is that Iran will start making further moves to inhibit passage through the straits. My guess it will be mines that they will deny using.
My assessment - Iran is weighing its options under the new sanctions. They can either directly strike out at US assets like they did the drone, or they could use proxy forces to step up attacks. So far, the proxy efforts haven’t been too effective imho.
Israel/Gaza
Israel has halted fuel transfers because of continued pyro-balloon attacks. This means Gaza only has a very short time before its generators shut down and the area goes dark.
CW2
Well, the republican boycott of the Oregon senate continues. None have been ‘captured’ and reports that most are holed up in Idaho (good patriot redoubt country). Oregon leftists are going certifiably nutz over this but have no path forward. The legislative session ends shortly and that will kill this unpopular bill. The only other way they could then try to pass it is to open a special session - which the republican could use the same tactics to thwart once again. Thursday there is a pro-republican rally being organized at the state capitol to provide citizen push-back against the leftists. My major concern is that antifa will show up and try to disrupt with violence. Keep a watchful eye on this potential flash point, since I’m pretty sure there will be plenty of III percenter types there ready to rumble as well.
Always appreciate updates
While the democrat clown show was diverting attentions -
Iran
More rhetoric. Today it is expected that Iran will exceed the limits to enriched uranium formerly agreed to.
The US Navy has rotated surface units into/out of the gulf region. The amphibious assault ship USS Boxer with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit and a combat helicopter squadron arrived in the region of the Strait of Hormuz. Also deployed were the amphibious transport dock, USS John P. Murtha, and the amphibious dock landing ship, USS Harpers Ferry. They are believed to be replacing other naval assets led by the USS Kearsarge which have been in the region since April.
It has been confirmed that overnight Iran suffered severe internet degradation across the country. No report of the cause, but rumor is that it could be part of the ongoing US cyber attacks.
Interesting discussions on just why Iran is behaving are they are -
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/06/what-iran-is-really-up-to.php
https://mosaicmagazine.com/observation/politics-current-affairs/2019/06/what-iran-is-really-up-to/
In large part it is trying to bully the weak kneed Europeans into violating sanctions or trying to get them to force US into issuing wavers and providing cover for the Iranian nuclear program.
Israel / Hamas
Fire balloon campaign increased against Israel. In a potentially troubling development - still unconfirmed - is that Hamas as incorporated other chemicals in their attacks. Residents report a strong odor, burning sensation in their eyes and difficulty breathing. Earlier, one of the hamas balloon units - Sons of Al-Yassin, militant group linked to Sons of Zawari - posted images and warnings of including some kind of chemical to their fire bomb balloons.
Israel/Russia/Syria
Yesterday Israel reported that GPS instruments at their Tel Aviv airport were ‘jammed’. Today claims are that this was the result of Russian units. GPS jamming of civilian aircraft is a serious business. Israel (as well as the US) relies upon GPS for advanced targeting of weapons and though jamming is anticipated in war, this is concerning.