Twitter OSINT war
Push back against twitter has resulted in several OSINT feeds being restored. The precedent of kowtowing to a foreign government is one that threatens to unravel all social media. These OSINT feeds are important in that they are:
1. Timely
2. Generally accurate and honest in reporting the degree of confidence in the data
3. Generally stay away from politics of the situation to avoid that bias.
Iran
Yesterday’s announcement of an additional 1000 military being deployed to the middle east pushes the needle higher, but not enough to be considered a sufficient offensive force. Currently set to be force protection.
Potential pentagon leak saying a military strike against Iran’s uranium enrichment facility(s) is scheduled for July. Huge leak if this is the case.
Analysis of Iran indicates that the sanctions are continuing to hurt the country and causing the mullahs to become more irrational in respect to poking the bear. Because of President Trump’s demonstrated resolve to overwhelmingly strike back if necessary, Iran’s hands are tied to use of proxy forces. This is becoming evident in Iraq where Katusha rockets were launched at US facilities overnight. Iran has spent a lot of time and money setting up anti-US Shiite militias as part of its power grab to create an Iranian ‘crescent’ from Syria to Afghanistan.
If things become kinetic between the US and Iran FULLY EXPECT cyber attacks against US networks. Uncertain if Iranian ‘cells’ would take action here as since 9/11 threats of cell actions from terrorists hasn’t panned out to the extent believed. A lot would depend upon Iran’s desperation.
N Korea
Post event seismic analysis indicates that the suspicious ‘quake’ near the NK/China border was not nuclear in origin.
Twitter
Many OSINT sources have been restored. Now just getting things relinked. The source of the grief was India pressuring Twitter.
Iran/Hezbollah/Israel
Scuttlebutt is that Israel is preparing for an significant attack from Hezbollah as directed by Iran. Expected window is within the next few months. Purpose would be to damage Israeli military and economy in response to impacts from sanctions.
While this scenario is plausible, if I were Iran I’d have second thoughts.
1. Israel won’t pussy-foot around and may even strike Iran proper.
2. The US may strike Iran for attacking an ally and US interests.
Iran/Iraq
There has been an uptick in attacks against western-based targets in Iraq over the past several days. The attacks usually consist of a rocket or mortar - shoot and scoot. Targets have been combination of military to petroleum. Very strong likelihood these are Iranian-backed militias that have popped up since Iran went into Syria and Iraq to battle ISIS.
President Trump is reported to be reluctant at present to order any attacks - running counter to war hawks in his administration. That is not stopping him from deploying forces necessary to back up his warnings.
Hong Kong
Just so we won’t forget, the population of Hong Kong sent a very loud and strong message to Beijing regarding its intrusion into its autonomy. They embarrassed Beijing and Xi - and the communist govt has traditionally not taken such embarrassment very well in the past.