Twitter
Many OSINT sources have been restored. Now just getting things relinked. The source of the grief was India pressuring Twitter.
Iran/Hezbollah/Israel
Scuttlebutt is that Israel is preparing for an significant attack from Hezbollah as directed by Iran. Expected window is within the next few months. Purpose would be to damage Israeli military and economy in response to impacts from sanctions.
While this scenario is plausible, if I were Iran I’d have second thoughts.
1. Israel won’t pussy-foot around and may even strike Iran proper.
2. The US may strike Iran for attacking an ally and US interests.
Iran/Iraq
There has been an uptick in attacks against western-based targets in Iraq over the past several days. The attacks usually consist of a rocket or mortar - shoot and scoot. Targets have been combination of military to petroleum. Very strong likelihood these are Iranian-backed militias that have popped up since Iran went into Syria and Iraq to battle ISIS.
President Trump is reported to be reluctant at present to order any attacks - running counter to war hawks in his administration. That is not stopping him from deploying forces necessary to back up his warnings.
Hong Kong
Just so we won’t forget, the population of Hong Kong sent a very loud and strong message to Beijing regarding its intrusion into its autonomy. They embarrassed Beijing and Xi - and the communist govt has traditionally not taken such embarrassment very well in the past.
Well, a night changes a lot
Iran
Unless you haven’t had your second cup of coffee this morning, overnight Iran shot down a MQ-4C Triton recon drone (Navy version of the USAF RQ-4 Global Hawk). This drone was also likely providing intelligence support to the Lincoln carrier strike force.
Iran is disputing the US claim that it was in international airspace. Given the reported sensor array the drone carries, there is no need for it to pass into Iranian airspace as it is designed for stand-off recon. Earlier Iran attempted to shoot down another drone providing recon support to Naval assets responding to the attacked oil tankers.
What to make of all of this -
Shooting down of any aircraft in international airspace is an act of war. As an “asset”, this pushes very, very close to the red line drawn by POTUS and may well have stepped over it. The biggest question is what will be the response - and there has to be a response or Iran will see this as a sign of weakness, emboldening further attacks. Since no US lives were lost, nor USN surface vessels attacked (BIG red line items) I would not anticipate a massive strike. More likely a proportionate strike is probable. I am reasonably certain US forces know exactly where the missile battery that launched is located (probably S300) as well as other AD facilities along the straits of hormuz. A series of coordinated air strikes on those facilities would send a serious message to Iran we are not amused - as well as damaging their defensive capability should things escalate further.
Preparation here in America -
I noted before, Iran may institute a series of hacking attacks on the US internet infrastructure targeting banking, communications, energy, etc. If/when US forces respond to the shootdown, Iran may instigate cyberwarfare as it is hard to trace and disruptive. May be a good idea to fill up the gas tank today.
Iran/Israel
Israel just completed an exercise preparing for a potential Hezbollah attack (prompted by Iran). It is reported to be one of the largest in recent time. Israel wont pussy foot around this time.