I think R+10 is too optimistic.
We will lose 3 seats in PA for sure due to redistricting, probably 1-2 in NJ. Comstock is underwater in VA. Trott and possibly one other are in trouble in MI. So far, McSally’s house seat here in AZ is a loss. Figure at least one loss in CA. That’s 10. Rod Blum was considered dead, but has made a comeback, still a little behind. Throw in FL27 OR 26, and you’re at 12, and just for margin, make it 15.
Now subtract two MN seats we’ll flip=13, and we probably will get AZ1 (-12).
So that’s where I am right now. Find me 12 other flips out there for us. I don’t see it.
So we should hold the house by 10-12 seats minimum, maybe if all the dominoes fall right, only 8.
-PJ