2018 Midterm Predictions

Self | 10/16/2018 | Paul Rivers

[spacewarp]

I'm looking at the polling and the predictions are strange. It appears that the polling, as usual, is a mess.

Name	Prediction	Result	Republican count	Democrat count	Independent count
McSally	Should easily beat traitor Sinnema.	Retain	43	23	0
Nelson	Will lose	Turnover	44	23	0
Donnely	Is most likely going to lose. It’s very tight, and probable turnover.	Turnover	45	23	0
Smith	Is in usually safe MN. Given her opponent, there’s a good chance she’s not as safe. This is a “Let’s see how election night turns out” seat.	Retain	45	24	0
McCaskill	Going down	Turnover	46	24	0
Hyde-Smith	Will retain	Retain	47	24	0
Tester	Will lose by double digits	Turnover	48	24	0
Heitkamp	Will lose by possibly double digits	Turnover	49	24	0
Menendez	Is doing everything he can to try to lose this one. Unfortunately, I just don’t think there’s enough to overcome the fraud in Jersey.	Retain	49	25	0
Heller	Will win. Only question left is margin.	Retain	50	25	0
Brown	Nailbiter, but I think this one goes R.	Turnover	51	25	0
Blackburn	Will slaughter this one	Retain	52	25	0
Cruz	Will prove to be the saviour of the night, as they poured over 60 million to waste on a candidate that will lose by at least 14.	Turnover	53	25	0
Baldwin	Going to call surprise on this one.	Turnover	54	25	0
Manchin	Will no longer be in politics after this election. He’s going to go down by at least 6.	Turnover	55	25	0
Feinstein	Retains. Unfortunately. There’s a slight chance, but only slight.	Retain	55	26	0
Murphy	Looks like he's going to get a scare. Don't think he's going to lose, but we'll see.	Retain	55	27	0
Carper	Retains.	Retain	55	28	0
Hirono	I wish it would be possible for someone to knock this arrogant person off her perch. Don't think so.	Retain	55	29	0
Warren	Made a critical blunder. We'll see if it will affect her. Right now, she holds.	Retain	55	30	0
Carden	Should be very tight, but probably retains.	Retain	55	31	0
King	Nothing showing any momentum to knock him out.	Retain	56	31	1
Stabenow	She has a strong opponent, and may lose. If Trump spends more time, should push her out.	Turnover	56	31	1
Klobuchar	We can only hope that the citizens wake up and vote her out.	Retain	56	32	1
Wicker	Should be fine	Retain	57	32	1
Fischer	Should be fine	Retain	58	32	1
Heinrich	Should retain	Retain	58	33	1
Gillibrand	Should retain	Retain	58	34	1
Whitehouse	Should retain	Retain	58	35	1
Hatch	Should retain	Retain	59	35	1
Kaine	Should retain	Retain	59	36	1
Cantwell	Should retain	Retain	59	37	1
Sanders	Should retain	Retain	59	37	2
Barrasso	Should retain	Retain	60	37	2
			Totals	Totals	Totals
			+9	-9	0

[LS]

Oh. That’s really optimistic. 5-7 possible. But then you’re betting on Vukmir and Hugin and Morrissey-—ALL of them.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Don’t see anything on Casey-Barletta in Pennsylvania - could be a turnover with Barletta an attractive Trump-like candidate for the ‘pubs - Trump’s even been in state to campaign for him - but his campaign is pretty lackluster - a couple of good TV ads attacking Casey’s record of non-achievement but not much else that I can see - Casey’s got a couple of ads running emphasizing his “bipartisan” achievements, as meager as they are, and may squeak by - on the other hand I’m in the Philly area - since Pennsylvania was once described as Philadelphia and Pittsburg with Alabama in between - it was Alabama that gave Penna to Trump, and Barletta is probably concentrating his efforts there - he could pull it out......

[SunkenCiv]

Larry’s:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3697439/posts?page=37#37

[Deplorable American1776]

I’d love to see Murphy go down, I think Connecticut might get a red wave in Hartford.

[Fledermaus]

Or lose -5 to -8 And still keep the House

[The Truth Will Make You Free]

Good work! You are showing one route to the 60 R Senators I called on 8/16.

[Revolutionary]

Good work! I actually think PA is in play. The dems used to have 4 areas in PA: Scranton, Harrisburg, Pittsburg (plus Southwest PA), and Philly. Trump has knocked off Scranton and is well on his way to Pittsburg (having already obtained Southwest PA). Plus he boosted Erie. Philly was already voting at 105% of registered voters. It will be hard to boost that kind of turnout.