There is no rational explanation for the behavior of Lieutenant David Porter and his secret orders from Lincoln except to deliberately mislead the Confederates as to the intentions of that war fleet and troops.
Even the Northern Newspapers identified it as a deliberate trick to give Lincoln an excuse to start the war he needed to protect the monied interests that backed him for the Presidency.
Only in your fever-swamp conspiracy theory fantasies, since you assume Confederates immediately knew everything Union forces did and that Federals knew Confederates knew, such that Lincoln's mix-up in orders to Porter could also mislead Jefferson Davis!
That's just nuts.
Occam's razor says the simplest explanation is best: the new President (as new Presidents are want to do) mixed up his instructions with the end result that Fort Pickens was saved and Fort Sumter lost.
Jefferson Davis and Jefferson Davis alone, nobody else, is responsible for Jefferson Davis' actions, period.