Las Vegas Shooting: Hotel Worker Vanishes After Saying Stephen Paddock Didn’t Have Any Bags

FOX365 ^ | 10/12/17

[DallasBiff]

The sheriff looking like he was going to have a nervous breakdown yesterday, the 28 year old survivor of the massacre saying that there was more than one shooter found dead, and now this.

[Steve Van Doorn]

To be clear your asking for my speculations on what took place.
Paddock? no, he was working for the Saudi's or delivering weapons in my opinion. That blood was dry and turned black on the carpet he had to be there for hours before they took that picture. I personally don't think he was one of the shooters.

This type of attack is the MO of the Saudis. They financed 9/11/01 in a similar way. Trump may have questioned them on their laws and a law was changed. Which is why their have starting negotiations with Russia for supplies and building needs. Which is their long term enemy.

My question is why do we put up with this shit from them and cover it up when they do it?
Their oil isn't that valuable to the US. Russia is supplying Europe. We could live without their black gold until they straighten up or replaced.

The key who did this is the Mod of operation and our cover. It wasn't the Russia, North Korea or China we wouldn't have covered for them.

[Freedom_2_ADM]

This so stinks of a Fast n Furious false flag op. Soros likely involved with deep state Dems to get gun legislation banning semi autos that can be made into machine guns with ‘rate increasing device’

[ilovesarah2012]

https://youtu.be/ep6R6j6kkA8

Multiple shooters interview

[jjotto]

Anyone going to “youtu dot be” supposedly in Belgium deserves whatever malware they get.

[BlueDragon]

Street view from February 2017. Thanks. Now what might that towers represent?

I don't know, but I'm led to think the four large anchoring points arrayed splayed out to either side of the twin columns must have something to do with the columns -- that appear to be still under construction. Uh, except it looks like construction had been possibly halted..?

[Steve Van Doorn]

At 44:30 she said her friend that is a firefighter said he has a video he isn’t allowed to show. Firefighter said, “You can clearly hear two people firing at once.”

[Steve Van Doorn]

said, "you could show us the photo where there is a “lot of blood at his chest”

There are two photos of him that is it. When he is on the ground dead. The head shot shows a lot of blood on his chest.

Notice there is a drop of blood moving down his chest as though was sitting or standing when the chest wound happened. Some of that chest blood didn't likely come from the head. The drop of blood is on the inside of his shirt seeping out.

The chest wound is a separate wound from the head. It could have been a result of the kick from the revolver. The only way for that to take place is if he was setting or kneeling bending his head down over the weapon before it fired. I don't see a chair right next to him in the pictures. If he was kneeling his legs wouldn't be straight.

None of that makes sense because his legs are straight. Thus he was laying on the ground when the weapon went off for the head wound.

The chest wound is likely unrelated to the head and happened shortly before the head wound.

[Edward.Fish]

I totally agree; the manner in which things have unfolded have shown a great reluctance towards both (a) releasing information and (b) establishing a solid timeline.
Now, I understand that the initial conflicting reports must be filtered/reconciled, but there’s been so many changes to the fundamental timeline, and what is essentially a dogmatic adherence to certain key elements (like single shooter) that it’s getting pretty weird.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

I can’t completely disagree but Vegas just has a really nasty sinister vibe, I can’t explain it better than that. I had two people a few years ago attempt (and fail) a strongarm robbery on me, so I’m pretty aware of what’s going on at gas stations.

[Fred Nerks]

Google Earth is about three years behind the present, so if you saw the towers as they are recently, then the site has obviously been abandoned.

[Fred Nerks]

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3592652/posts

did you check the comments on this thread?

[SE Mom]

Geeesh. The more time passes it seems the less we know. It’s not like othertimes we’ve endured these awful mass murders. Something is amiss.

[DBG8489]

That would be slower than all of those I listed at 2350 fps for 123 gr.

Shooter 1 would be around 460 yards and shooter 2 around 255

I didn’t take the time to do the exact math because it doesn’t matter.

[marktwain]

I think your math is off.

The lag between bullet arrival and arrival of the sound wave would be very different.

Flight time for the bullet would be about .72 seconds for 400 yards. Time for sound arrival would be about 1.04 seconds. That would be a lag time of .32 seconds. Pretty close to the “shooter2” stated lag of .374. Speed of sound is approximate. It could be calculated much closer based on the current pressure and temperate in Las Vegas at the time of the shooting.

[DBG8489]

The lag time between arrival of the round and the arrival of the sound of the rifle firing is dependent on two things: The speed of sound, which is constant, and the speed of the projectile which starts at X and ends at Y (because a round slows down once it's fired). But this is known, and ballistics data can be generated for each type of round given a specific muzzle velocity and a chart can be made that shows for any given flight time, a resulting distance is traveled.

So if you know the flight time, you can look at the ballistics chart and get a (rough) distance the round traveled. In other words, you know how far the recording source was from the rifle.

We *know* the flight times because we can look at the waveforms in an audio program and see how many msecs there are between impacts and reports - on each sample.

I admitted that my original calculations were "back of the napkin" type stuff. And you wanted me to check the math, so I went back and re-did it using ballistics calculations for each round along with accurate climate data. And it did change some of the values although it didn't wipe away the discrepancy.

The constants are:

Two samples, taken from a single recording device in a single location.

Temp - 60F
Rel H - 20%
Alt - 2030ft
Barometric Pressure - 29.98inHg

In those conditions, the speed of sound is about: 1130 fps; 345 meters/sec; 377 yards/sec

For each projectile given, the muzzle velocity is:

TYPE	WEIGHT	VELOCITY
M193 5.56x45mm	55gr	3250 fps
M855 5.56x45mm	62gr	3025 fps
M80 7.62x51mm	149gr	2750 fps
M2 7.62x51mm	152gr	2740 fps
M852 7.62x51mm	168gr	2550 fps
M118 7.62x51mm	173gr	2640 fps
*M43 7.62x39mm	162gr	2350 fps

Time lags between impact and report (flight time) for each is:

Sample 1 - 0.559s
Sample 2 - 0.374s

Using those figures, and the ballistcs data for each round, we can calculate that for each lag time (flight time) given, each of the rounds listed will travel the following distances:

Projectile	Weight	Yards in .559 secs	Yards in .374 secs
M193 5.56x45mm	55 gr	425	320
M855 5.56x45mm	62 gr	425	320
M80 7.62x51mm	149 gr	425	320
M2 7.62x51mm	152 gr	425	320
M852 7.62x51mm	168 gr	400	280
M118 7.62x51mm	173 gr	420	290
M43 7.62x39mm	162 gr	380	270

In the case of your round, with a flight time of .56 seconds the round will travel around 380 yards. With a flight time of .38 seconds, it will travel around 270 yards.

If you don't believe it, I don't care. You can do the calculations yourself.

My guess is that if they ever release the data on the rounds found at the scene, you will see pretty much nothing but 5.56 in either 55 or 62 grain. It doesn't matter which because both travel about the same distance in the given times.

And given those different flight times, there's no way there was only one shooter 425 or so yards away in the Mandalay Bay hotel. There was at least one other shooter about 100 yards closer.

[marktwain]

I appreciate your efforts. You did some good work. Thanks for finding the speed of sound and the meteorological data. The temperature in Las Vegas at 10:56 p.m. was 77 degrees. The pressure was 29.50 mm of HG. according to a weather site I checked. The difference in temperature is not significant.

Unfortunately, I believe you are making a simple logical error.

Lag time is not flight time.

Lag time is the difference between flight time and the time for the report to reach the point of impact. (actually, as you point out, the time between the report of the bullet strike and the report of the shot to reach the recorder)

A slower bullet results in a smaller lag time for the same range, because it is closer to the speed of sound.

You have to know the bullet ballistics to get the flight time, and know the speed of sound to get the time between report and arrival of the report. The difference between the two is the lag time. It varies with the ballistics of the round and the distance. The acoustic path can also be significantly different than the flight path of the bullet, though that is more of a problem at longer ranges. Given a lag time and knowledge of the ballistics, you can approximate the range.

A simple way to look at this is to compare the lag time for a known distance between types of rounds. Lets use speed of sound data and a known distance, say 400 yards, or 1200 feet.

The sound of the report takes 1200/1130, or 1.06 seconds to move 1200 feet, assuming a line of sight acoustic path. A 7.62x39 bullet (123 grain at 2,350 fps) takes about .72 seconds to travel the same distance. A 7.62X51 (150 grain at 2,820) takes about .51 seconds to travel the distance. A .223 (55 grain at 3,239 fps) takes about .53 seconds to cover the 400 yards. The lag times are .34 seconds for the 7.62x39 (1.06-.72), .55 seconds for the 7.62x51 (1.06-.51), and .51 seconds for the .223 (1.06-.55).

Of course, the exact round lag time will vary with the exact cartridge, the length of the barrel and the atmospheric conditions, which can be put into a good ballistic calculator, once they are known.

But this ignores other important problems with using cell phones recordings.

Can we reliably differentiate between bullet strikes and echoes of reports? Maybe. Echos should reach us later, and strike sooner. I suspect they can be differentiated with a sophisticated analysis.

How about the geometry of where the recorder is in relation to the shooter and the bullet strikes? If the phone is 50 yards closer to the shooter than to the strikes, the lag time will appear to be about 100 yards less, because the acoustic path time from the bullet strike is added to the time of the bullet strike recording while the acoustic path from the shooter is shortened because the recorder is closer to the shooter. This reduces the lag time considerably.

That should not make a difference in determining the relative difference in lag times, because that would cancel out when using the same recording device. It does make a difference in absolute range.

I would like to see some evidence of what rounds were fired by the shooter, how many, and of what type. We should also be able to get a count of the total number of rounds fired, the sequence, and the timing.

There are lots of recordings out there, so that sequence and timing should not be too difficult. Echoes complicate things quite a bit, because they can give false readings of multiple strings of shots. A good analysis could sort them out, as the time string of shots would nearly duplicate other time strings.

The lag time analysis seems inconclusive to me, at least for now.

[DBG8489]

Sorry it’s taken a while for me to reply - I work weird hours.

And you’re correct - the lag time isn’t the flight time. It can be used to get the flight time - but it isn’t the flight time itself. I apologize for the confusion - I’m old, tired, and don’t always think when I’m typing.

Here is a link to a study about using acoustic data (from a cell phone or other recording device) to reconstruct a shooting. It covers determining distance if the mic is either close to the rifle, or close to the victim - or somewhere in between. It even covers using multiple recordings from different places to “triangulate” the exact location(s) of a shooter or shooters.

http://www.btgresearch.org/AcousticReconstruction02042012.pdf

It appears to use a differential equation modeled after the “crack-thump” method of determining range on the battlefield but using actual impact instead of the “crack”.

There are other scientific papers about this but all of them are behind paywalls - and it’s not worth $40 for me to get access when this one lays it out plainly.

I’m not peer-reviewing their data, just posting it. BTG Research appears to have done a lot of studies on a lot of subjects, and the two individuals who make up the team seem to have decent bona fides; so I don’t think they’re any fly-by-night operation. Although I could be wrong as I don’t know them personally.

The point of the paper is that using a decent recording - which nearly all cell phones made today are capable of, an audio engineer can easily examine the wave-forms and pull the impact time (or sonic boom “crack”) and the “thump” of the weapon from any extraneous data like echoes. And if you know the location of the recording device, and it doesn’t move, then you can determine the distance to the shooter within a few meters for a given round, in a given set of atmospheric circumstances - it even works with automatic rifle fire...

In fact, this is part of how the gunfire sensors they’re installing in cities now operate. Their algorithms and methods are proprietary and they won’t share, but they can use acoustic data to determine shooter locations to within meters in some cases depending on distance from the differnt sensors.

In any case, even if I discard the science and math, and instead use the battlefield method on the lag time recorded, I’m still left with the following:

For the 7.62x39 123 grain:

LAG DISTANCE
.559 - 550 meters/600 yards
.374 - 280 meters/300 yards

For the 5.56x45 55 grain:

LAG DISTANCE
.559 - 350 meters/400 yards
.374 - 160 meters/175 yards

And interestingly enough I happened to find a video that deals with exactly this subject and even has spreadsheets and charts for both the 5.56 55 grain and the 7.62x39 123 grain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rb4BP7lZnk0

The charts in the video use the exact weapons we are discussing and show pretty much those exact ranges.

Battlefield use of “crack-thump” isn’t scientific - and it’s dependent on knowing the caliber and weight of the round you’re facing, but in this case we aren’t on a battlefield - we’re dealing with recordings where we can easily use the wave-forms to pull the data and get an accurate lag time in milliseconds. We also know the atmospheric conditions on the night of the shooting. And we know the location of the recording device and that it didn’t move between recording sample A and sample B. And finally - we know - at least we can surmise from the photos released (if they’re real) that the hotel room had .223 and .308 rifles. We don’t know exactly what ammo he was using however - nor do we know the caliber and weight of the rounds found on the ground and in the pavement. They may not ever release that info.

However, using what we *do* know we can do the calculations for a ton of variants of caliber and weight and using the results my opinion is that it’s unlikely one shooter from that hotel room was able to create two totally different lag times even if he switched between weapons and calibers.

And he certainly wasn’t able to fire both of them at the same time using bump-fire stocks. They require the use of both hands. And there are several places in the recordings where there are two weapons overlapping.

I don’t claim to know why - or who did it. Just because I am calling out law enforcement for what I consider to be shoddy investigative work doesn’t mean that I think the shooting was a government sponsored conspiracy. Incompetence is rampant in the ranks of government employees and that includes law enforcement.

[marktwain]

Thanks for getting back.

The crux of the matter is how accurately we can identify the various sounds recorded on the cell phones.

I suspect that is quite difficult. Some cell phones are better than others, and it would be very helpful to have the original recording device to find out the mike response to frequencies.

Maybe enough resolution is there, maybe not. There are a lot of recording devices out there.

There are experts in this exact field. It would be nice if they would spend a couple of hundred hours, free, and weigh in.

I think the overlapping strings of fire is likely to be the most fruitful. The recordings give fairly precise timing. So the exact timing of a string of shot is very likely to positively and uniquely identify that string. That would allow identification of echoes, which are a problem because of all the hard, flat surfaces available in the city.

Once we have positively identified all the strings of shots recorded, we can do further analysis. I do not think there are more than a couple of dozen strings, but even 50 or a hundred shot strings would not be excessively burdensome.

There is considerable motivation to find evidence of a second shooter. Anyome who does so will have made their reputation.

A second shooter, of course complicates the picture enormously.

We also know that theories of multiple shooters, and mis-characterizations of multiple shooters have been common in just about every mass shooting, at least in early reports.

That should keep us skeptical.

Know any good acoustic people who are willing to devote a couple of hundred hours to carefully identify shot strings?

[DBG8489]

You’re welcome - always enjoy actually discussing topics with people who aren’t looking to argue...

I agree - the accuracy is the question. Some phones are definitely better than others.

But I think that given enough time any good audio engineer should be able to discern enough from enough of the recordings to determine whether or not there was in fact more than one shooter.

Echoes don’t have the same energy as the original sound, but inside a box of buildings, that may not be the case. I’ve run sound for bands in clubs and done some recording, but I’m not an “audio engineer” by any stretch...

And I agree that it would be nice if some experts in this field would lend their expertise to the cause - although in their defense, they get paid a ton of money for their expertise and are most likely looking to get paid by LE - not donate their time for folks like us. But maybe we will get lucky...

I also agree that the overlapping strings are where the rubber will end up meeting the road. It would likely take many hours to deconstruct those wave-forms and piece together a result.

I also agree that the person who does this definitively could make their reputation.

And yes - many mass shootings have reported more than one shooter. But this is the first one I know of that has this much *independent* audio-visual evidence. You’d think that places like BTG Research would be jumping at the opportunity to make a name for themselves by analyzing the audio and determining with some accuracy whether or not there was more than one shooter...

Hopefully we’ll get lucky. If I can find some free time perhaps I may try to do it myself and see what a layman can come up with.

And again - thanks for the reasoned conversation.

[Big Red Badger]

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