The only reason it will take that long is that the glut of people-driven cars will need time to replace. The factor that will probably push this change along will be when insurance is far too expensive for the average person to afford to drive. And car ownership will become far more expensive than cars-as-a-service. The technology is here now. And it is one of many that will probably make this world unrecognizable in a short while.
This is all about making driving unaffordable for the masses and forcing them to move into socialist hives(cities).
We have a 2006 Ford Freestyle that runs like a top even though I got it for a song about 3 years ago. Haven't spent a dime on it yet.
Not likely to happen as long as there are destinations too far off the map.
The technology has been here for years. RCA had a prototype of a self-driving car that they were testing in Princeton, NJ in 1960 (yes, that’s almost 60 years ago!). What has held up the proliferation of these self-driving cars is that the technology isn’t reliable and precise enough to do what everyone thinks it’s supposed to do (drive with no driver at all) ... but it MUST do what everyone thinks it’s supposed to do before it really has any value to anyone. A car that is 99% autonomous is really no better than a car that is 0% autonomous.