Posted on 02/23/2016 11:50:04 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper
There's still time to turn it around, of course, but now that many conservatives are moving from the bargaining to the depression phase of the Kubler-Ross cycle, we can begin to grapple with the prospective reality of a Trump-versus-Hillary general election.
If you're an ideological conservative, a proponent of limited government, or someone who believes that the president has too much power already, you shouldn't think of this matchup as a contest between horrifying candidates. Rather, you should ask yourself, "Which scenario would be more damaging?" I'm pretty sure you'll find that Donald Trump is the form of the Destructor.
But Hillary is the worst, most evil, liberal ever!
Yes. You should be counting on it. Hillary, as you may have noticed, does not have the charisma of Barack Obama. Not only will she be divisive and ethically compromised, but Hillary will also galvanize the Right. Her presidency - even more now that she's dropped the pretense of centrism - would reinforce the traditional ideological distinctions we've debated for years. Republicans would almost certainly unite against her agenda, which will be little more than codifying Obama's legacy - a collection of policies that half the country still hates.
She won't be able to pass anything substantive. The most likely outcome is another four to eight years of trench warfare in D.C., with a number of winnable, state-level issues for conservatives. Probably, if historical disposition of the electorate holds, a Republican Congress. (Who knows what happens to Congress if Trump is elected.) Hardly ideal. But unless you believe that an active Washington is the best Washington, gridlock is not the end of the world.
The myth that Democrats get everything will persist. But despite plenty of well-earned criticism, the GOP has been a more effective minority party than constituents give them credit for. People are frustrated, but the idealists have (had?) been gaining ground since the Tea Party emerged. Their presence has put a stop to an array of progressive reform efforts that the pre-2010 GOP would surely have gone along with.
With a Trump presidency this dynamic disintegrates.
Just as some Republicans are already warming to the idea of his candidacy, the temptation in Congress to follow Trumpism - a philosophy based on the vagaries of one man - will be strong. Trump's inclination is never to free Americans from the state ("we're gonna take care of everybody!") but rather to do a better job administering the state through great deals and assertive leadership. Or, everything the Founders didn't want the presidency to be.
So while gridlock will still hold up most issues conservatives do care about, chances are high, considering his long history of supporting big government, that Trump would try and cobble together a populist coalition for polices they hate. This will end up marginalizing ideological conservatism from within the party.
I mean, what will Reaganites gain from this presidency? The idea that Trump could dismantle Obamacare - when he backs many of its components and has yet to offer any genuine ideas about how he's going to do it - is a fantasy. The idea that Trump would name originalists to the Supreme Court is equally risible when you consider that Trump has shown absolutely no clue or inclination to understand what originalism entails.
There is little question Trump would abuse power. In some way, it's the point of his candidacy. The thing that gets his admirers excited. "Finally, someone who will use the IRS for us. Someone who will circumvent Congress for us. Obama gets everything; why shouldn't we?"
Some Republicans, already complicit in looking the other way on executive overreach, will likely be enablers - especially when it comes to issues they can get behind, like immigration. Maybe no one cares about free markets and constitutional idealism anymore. The working class is mad! How dare you disrespect its concerns?
There's a difference between caring about the plight of working stiffs and embracing isolationism, high tariffs, and other policies that would destroy their long-term prospects. Is everyone supposed to surrender to mercantilism because it makes 30 percent of angry voters feel better? You can't let a mob run your party. And it's not a mob because it's hyper-populist or constructed around a cult of celebrity or even because it's angry - though all those things are true. The problem is that it's incoherent and nihilistic.
"I hate Jeb Bush, so I'm going to vote for Donald Trump and burn your whole party down" is a non sequitur.
It's worth pointing out that the chances of protectionist policies passing - with a bipartisan coalition of progressives and right-protectionists - are far higher under Trump than Clinton. Why should free traders help facilitate this kind of disaster? So they can brag about having a Republican president?
None of this is to argue the conservative movement or the Republican Party is in good shape, that the status quo is working well, or that the leadership doesn't deserve what's coming. I'm not saying someone shouldn't blow up the Republican Party. I'm saying that that someone shouldn't be an unprincipled imposter. Because at some point there's going to be a counterrevolution. Those who swear up and down that they would never vote for Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio because they aren't conservative enough shouldn't be surprised that a large faction on the Right (more than likely, the larger faction on the Right) won't support a candidate who is adversarial to its belief system.
To support Trump would be an exercise in pure partisanship. For conservatives, it would mean facilitating their own destruction. It makes no sense.
You are exactly right. The corruption is now institutional.
“But Hillary is the worst, most evil, liberal ever!”
WOW-after 8 years of ‘O’ and the whole circus of criminals around him, THAT’S saying something!
I have tried to stay out of the Trump/Cruz war, as both sides have devolved into grade school diatribe. The level of discourse on FR has become quite depressing, and it’s refreshing to see a modicum of adult reasoning.
Your argument is most interesting. I’ll not argue the “conservative” label or even the utility of such a sobriquet. Trump is a disciple of Robespierre, not Madison or Jefferson. I know that makes me an enemy to half the board, but such is life. I hold little hope that Trump will accomplish anything substantive, and he certainly won’t return this country to a Constitutional republic. At this point in our history, politics has no chance to save our country, but Trump offers the best hope for a departure from the status quo. If nothing else, he will reveal the GOP for the tertiary syphilitic whore that she is. Her traitorous actions are but impotent death throes.
Trump’s greatest appeal lies in the public’s honest desire for a dragon slayer, but history has proven most dragon slayers to be poor rulers. The real question is what happens afterward—rebellion or revolution? Far too many of our countrymen see no difference, but the Reign of Terror always beckons radicals and often consumes the patriot.
Screaming ignorant opinions loudly does not change fiction to fact.
Trumps potions on Taxes, National Security, Immigration and Trade demonstrate the assumptions in this article nonsense.
I’m old enough to remember BEFORE the time that townhall.com was a laughingstock.
Well stated.
Makes sense. Fire all the gov't employees. Hire a bunch of gov't investigators.
Correct. Not only is Trump not conservative, he is also a person of low character.
The same pundit pontificators who feel free to define the future in terms of their world view, prejudices and fears, are enable to provide the mountains of texts they have previously authored, that correctly predicted anything substantive about future events.
But now they are the sole source of wisdom and prescience that clearly sees the final chapter of a Donald Trump ascendancy.
Well here is my prediction, and it is the only one that is valid. No one knows how this thing will turn out. We are all busy projecting our own biases and subjective realities onto a situation the is entirely unprecedented and unpredictable.
The only thing that is certain is that the next few months will be completely void of rationality and objectivity. We are about to enter the twilight zone of politics, where believing is all that matters and your imagination will dictate reality.
.... as opposed to now, when conservatives are embraced and loved by the Establishment Republicans?
To support Trump would be an exercise in pure partisanship. For conservatives, it would mean facilitating their own destruction.
.... because now, conservatism has had such a wonderful place at the table, provided by the Establishment Republicans?
Nice!
Some of these people recoil at the slogan “Make America Great Again” like a vampire seeing the rising morning sun. The they clothe their fear with words, mindless words.
Why should we believe he'll do that?
Tried to read... Kind of intellectual sounding argument... Some bad assumptions (Hillary stops lying, has no coattails, etc)..... zzzzz...
Trump has already said he's raising budgets for the military and whatever agencies will be responsible for building the wall and funding infrastructure projects. He's also said no cuts to Social Security and Medicare. And he can't arbitrarily cut debt payments. So that idea won't work right off the bat.
Offer buy out packages, combine the multi layered multiple overlapping depts...
What if 20% of your air traffic controllers take the package? Or 20% of your Border Patrol? Or 20% of food inspectors? You're not going to replace those people?
Trumps a union guy so we will see how tough he really is...
Trump's anything but a union guy. His hotel in Las Vegas has been fighting tooth and nail against its employees organizing. I'm sure the Democrats will use that against him in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
You mean political gridlock or political revolution? That's easy, Trump will produce political gridlock. He may make progress with his signature issues: the wall, protectionism and lower taxes. But beyond that there will be a lot of pushback from a hostile congress (how many are Trump supporters, a dozen?) He will propose legislation, make humourous rambling speeches about it and it will be referred to committee.
I like the fact that Trump will unleash American greatness. Part of the way America became great was tariffs and those will still work provided we don't get carried away. Hopefully he can cut into Fedzilla. But the rest of Trump's rule will be a roll of the dice with some good and bad surprises.
If we had such success I would extend the offer and see if we can cut 20% of the total federal employees.
Trump’s anything but a union guy. His hotel in Las Vegas has been fighting tooth and nail against its employees organizing. I’m sure the Democrats will use that against him in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Sure they’ll use that against Trump. Just like they would use Cruz’s enabling of Obamatrade against him. Cruz has no hope of carrying the old rust belt after casting votes enabling Obamatrade. He’d lose the beltway suburbs 70-30 and there goes VA for the GOP. Cruz simply has no path to to 270 EV. Sorry.
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