I think we can throw out the top two polls there. The next three are probably roughly representative of the state of play. Trump around 37, Cruz around 19.
However, turnout matters. Cruz showed how that can work to his advantage in some cases like Iowa, much less so in New Hampshire. I think that’s worth a few (3?) points in his favor.
Trump has shown either good (NH) or bad (Iowa) turnout results. Are the next few states more like NH or Iowa? I think Iowa. I’d subtract a couple (2) of points from Trump on that score.
Still, all my pro-Cruz conjecture puts Trump in a very strong position. I think that’s the current reality. Something interesting new and different is going to have to happen for Cruz to break through.
Pretty honest from a Cruz supporter...well done
Are you all Cruz or nothing?
Or will you vote Trump if he wins
You’re the third Cruz first supporter I asked
I’m a Cruz 2nd for the record
Tks
I think Rubio can come 2nd. Machine is behind him. Cruz may be distant 3rd.
For Jeb, machine failed in NH.
Iowa is very different state, one its caucus state, plus very socialist/very religious.
Cruz spent weeks and weeks and weeks in Iowa and traveled to all 99 counties. South Carolina is a considerably bigger state and he’s spent less time there. His GOTV will be solid but not like Iowa.
South Carolina is nothing like Iowa.
Fox comes out with another Murdoch controlled poll tommorow. Let’s see how that looks.