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The Ego Has Landed: Why Trump Damaged Himself Tonight
Ace of Spades HQ ^ | February 13, 2016 | Ace

Posted on 02/14/2016 12:44:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Apologies. I have no idea why I indulged myself to write so long to make such a simple point. Long story short: You can't tell people they've been flat wrong about everything for 17 years, without giving the slightest reason why they should change their entire scheme of thinking, and expect them to support you.

This was a brief line in the podcast (which we'll post tomorrow) which I expanded, for reasons I can now no longer guess, into a 1500 word exegesis on the obvious.

Just skip to the brief update.

...

The "ego" in the headline doesn't actually refer to Trump's ego, for once. Rather, it refers to the voters' egos.

I think Trump hurt himself badly tonight, enough to knock him out of his first-place standing in most states. Oh he won't completely disappear -- but 2nd Place Trump is not the same thing as Frontrunner Trump.

Trump damaged himself with his claim that Bush lied us into war in Iraq. Not botched the intelligence, not read too much into thin intelligence.

Most Republicans, I think, would agree that that.

No, Trump claimed that Bush deliberately lied us into war.

First, this is alarming because it once again demonstrates that Trump has a conspiratorial mind. It's not enough for the conspiracist to say someone was wrong -- no, they have unrealistically black/white minds, and if you made a bad call, you must have lied.

That conspiracism was always present in his claims about Obama's birth certificate. But that bit of fantasy was about Obama, someone the average Republican voter isn't exactly eager to man the battlements for.

This corker -- this Al Gore roar of quote -- is about George W. Bush, someone still looked upon with affection by most of the party.

Which brings us to the second problem.

If Donald Trump is right, and George W. Bush deliberately schemed with his neo-con advisers to "lie" us into a phony war with Iraq, what does that say about the average Republican voter who supported Bush from 1999, voted for him, defended him through the recount, cried with him on 9/11, agreed with him on Iraq, defended him from ceaseless liberal attacks on him during the war, defended him from Obama's never-expiring "Blame Bush" blame-shifting, etc.?

If Trump is right, then we're not just wrong to have supported him. If Trump's right, we're goddamned rubes and fools to have defended this Actual Hitler-Level Monster for going on 17 years now.

Everyone has an ego. Even Jeb Bush.

The first duty of every ego is to protect itself from attack.

People want to think well of themselves, and they wish to vote in a way that makes them think well of themselves. It's a critical goal in every campaign to convince the public that voting for this candidate is the Smart, Virtuous, Good thing to do, because people will vote in a way that enables them to luxuriate their egos.

That's how Barack Obama got elected. The media convinced people that they became smart and virtuous and good just by voting for this layabout pinko incompetent.

A good leader will challenge people, and that sometimes requires posing a threat to their egos. By telling someone they are wrong-- or at least aren't thinking about things quite straight --one is attacking their ego.

But someone adroit in persuasion understands when he is in fact attacking the core of someone's sense of self-worth, and does so cautiously, deploying all the reason and tactfulness he can marshal into the effort.

He attacks that person's ego to the smallest extent compatible with his goal (changing the person's mind), and offers him good reasons to change his mind.

He thus offers a lateral move, if you will, from one state of self-valuation to another. You give up on this one way of thinking, which would usually cause some psychic strain to the ego, but, on the other hand, you have been convinced of the rectitude of this other way of thinking. By moving to that new way of thinking, you gain a level of self-worth, so you're net even on the deal. (You might even gain some sense of self-worth for having been smart enough to recognize a good argument and having been openminded enough to consider it.)

It is very unpersuasive, on the other hand, to offer someone a flat contradiction of something they've long believed while offering no reason at all to accept a new replacement belief, except the assertion of it.

Abandoning the old position is damaging to one's sense of self-worth -- how could I have gotten it wrong for so long? But no easy glide-path to the new way of thinking is offered.

You sort of have to just knuckle under someone's flat assertion -- and subordinating oneself to another's claims, with no good reasons for such subordination offered, is even more hostile to the ego than being wrong.

Who wants to be someone else's Thought Bitch?

This is a long way of saying Trump specifically and completely contradicted a belief that 75-80% of Republicans have about Bush -- that he was a fundamentally decent man, perhaps overwhelmed by a very difficult period, who made an erroneous decision based on incomplete information -- and instead offered a new belief, that Bush deliberately lied about Iraq's WMD's, a position that 75-80% of Republicans have long not only rejected but have been actively hostile towards.

With no better reason to adopt this new claim other than that Donald Trump said it.

I doubt very much people will be willing to make this leap with Trump. Gathering political support is all about getting a buy-in of belief at a price that people are willing to pay (usually, a low price-- that's why politicians strain to parrot back to you things you already believe).

I think Trump, who has been a past-master at getting people to buy-in to a very low-cost premise -- "Let's Make America Great Again" -- just made a very high cost premise central to buying into him.

And I think for that reason that many people will be taking a second look at Trump -- and not in a good "second look" way. I think they'll be evaluating things they previously gave him passes on -- donations to Hilary, Reid, Pelosi, etc.; support for partial birth abortion; support for single-peer health care-- and re-evaluate those facts while keeping in mind Trump's big new premise that Republicans supported, voted for, defended, and sustained an actual war criminal who made war on a country he knew to be innocent of the claim he dishonestly profferred against it, for who knows what sinister gain.

We'll see if he tries walking this one back, and to what extent he's successful.

If it is now a part of the agenda that we actually have to buy into all the claims Gore, Pelosi, Obama, etc. made for years, I think this new agenda is going to turn out to be too highly priced for most Republican voters.

And Don't Even Get Me Started on Tribal Signaling. I was just telling someone that every campaign boils down to two four word claims:

I'M ON YOUR SIDE

HE'S NOT LIKE US

Dress it up however you like, the subconscious messaging in every election is just that.

I'm on Your side.

He's not like Us.

With just a few poorly chosen angry words, Trump declared a lot of allegiance to the enemy tribe, and essentially said "I'm not like you."


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: 2016debates; 911; blogpimp; brokenrecord; bullytrump; bush; canada; cuba; enoughalready; ibtz; ilovetowhine; iraq; luzer; luzers; trump; trumptruther; trumpvalues; truther; truthertrump; waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
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To: Leto

You are not quoting all the words. Trump finished with ,”but not with abortion”.

Quote all the words.


81 posted on 02/14/2016 5:25:22 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: BeadCounter
But he went into Truther territory.

And that's where Trump lost me.

Here's the reality:

- While it's true that 9-11 happened on Bush's watch, the intelligence failures that allowed it to happen began long before Bush took office. They happened under the Clinton Administration and came to fruition during Bush's watch.

- The Clinton Administration, at Jamie Gorelik's urging, prevented the FBI and CIA from sharing intelligence that would've exposed the terrorist plot being executed in our own country by muslim terrorists that were attending commercial airline flight training schools, paying cash for that training, then leaving (not completing the classes) after learning how to fly -- but not take off or land.

- Trump ignored the 17 worthless U.N. resolutions passed during the Clinton and Bush years which declared Saddam Hussein a threat to the middle east, and the world. Same resolutions acknowledged Hussein was either developing or already had weapons of mass destruction (an ambiguous term at best, which could've meant everything from biological to chemical to nuclear weapons) and had in fact, already used them against the Kurds in northern Iraq. We also had satellite photo's showing the movement of those WMD's exiting Iraq and heading towards Syria. It was a two and a half mile long convoy of Iraqi military trucks. I still remember those photo's.

- In the context of 9-11 and the country experiencing its worst attack on homeland soil since Pearl Harbor, a President has to make the best decision he can with the best information available. With all the information on the table for all to see, George W. Bush made the best decision he could. It is fact that Saddam Hussein directly threatened the United States of America in the wake of 9-11, and it is a fact that Saddam Hussein celebrated the terrorist attacks against this country. It would've been foolish for this country to not respond to Saddam Hussein. I personally believe that going into Afghanistan was 100% justified. That's where Osama Bin Laden was and by God he needed to be held accountable for what he did.

I've always had reservations about Iraq but we had to take that threat seriously too. Judging Iraq and whether or not it was the right thing to do in hindsight serves no useful purpose IMO. Bush was "damn'ed if he did, damn'ed if he didn't" on Iraq. At the end of the day, there were a HANDFUL of voices saying "don't go." The consensus - INCLUDING EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT LEADER (Hillary Clinton, Harry Reid, John Kerry and more..) was TO GO, and we did.

If there were any single piece of VALUABLE hindsight in all of this, it's that as soon as Saddam Hussein was dead, we should've left Iraq as soon as possible. We were CHEERED when we rolled into Baghdad and chased Hussein out. We were CHEERED AGAIN when Hussein was caught and turned over to the Iraqi's for justice. At that point, we should've turned the country back over to the Iraqi's and left. It was THEIR country to defend, not ours and we should've forced them to stand up and do it.

Coddling them and getting into nation building based on the "once we broke it, we had to fix it" was complete bullshit IMO. Iraq was already broke. Fixing it BEGAN with getting rid of Saddam Hussein. The rest of the job was the Iraqi's. Not ours. Not to the tune of thousands of American's deaths and not to the tune of $5.2T.

The single biggest mistake of Iraq was leaving ANYONE and ANYTHING behind in Iraq for Obama to finish the job with. Clearly Obama had no intentions of Iraq being a success story for the American military or American foreign policy. I think many people (myself, others here on FR, foreign policy and military experts outside FR)) either suspected or KNEW Obama would f' up Iraq, and he did. That's the single biggest mistake, which BTW isn't Bush's fault --- that's on Obama! Every President inherits the problems of the previous President. That was certainly true in Bush's case with all the Clinton Administration intelligence failures, and we didn't hear Bush blame Clinton a single time did we? The Obama mantra for over seven years has been "Bush's fault!"

I don't accept Iraq was Bush's fault, and certainly not Bush's fault alone.

And THAT is why Donald Trump lost my support last night. He acted worse than a petulant child when he went on his "9-11 truther" rant last night against George W. Bush. Clearly Donald Trump isn't capable of acting Presidential, and he's not going to develop that capability. I said way back in the beginning that at some point Trump needed to start "acting Presidential" and that if he didn't, sooner or later he'd start losing support.

Last night was his opportunity and he BLEW IT BIG TIME. I suspect I'm not the only (former) Trump supporter who watched that and was horrified at his behavior.

Not sure who I'm going to support going forward (likely Cruz, my second choice) but it looks like I'm going to have to figure that as it now appears the Republican Race just went completely up for grabs and my primary vote might actually matter this time when the race comes to Illinois.

82 posted on 02/14/2016 5:25:26 AM PST by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: toddausauras

Guess Mr. “Ace” missed reading the polls following the debate “circus”. Trump didn’t damage himself at all. Read ‘em and weep.


83 posted on 02/14/2016 5:27:48 AM PST by DaveA37
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To: TigersEye

I expect presidential candidates to do their homework and know this. Even Jeb appeared ignorant. Trump is clearly wrong to accuse Bush 43 of lying about WMD’s.


84 posted on 02/14/2016 5:34:21 AM PST by jch10 (Hillary in the Big House, not the White House .)
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To: odawg

“Then you can take your principle and comfort yourself with it.”

There it it! If that is one’s attitude as we sit here and debate our candidates, we run the risk of alienating those WE NEED to win the general. Sure, it feels good to drive home the point, walk away from the argument feeling vindicated, but if you haven’t persuaded (with either your valid arguments or, just as importantly, your means of persuasion), then come election day, you may just find your candidate lacking sufficient support.

On THAT day, how will it feel to know that those who chose principles over expediency stayed home (having chosen to win a battle here or there, but costing your team the war?

My point is simply to wonder whether people are going to be willing to hold their nose to vote anymore. You seem to think they will.


85 posted on 02/14/2016 5:35:18 AM PST by MarDav
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To: InterceptPoint

I agree that Iraq likely had the weapons and moved them. I also agree that, at worst, they didn’t have the weapons, but intelligence botched it. Bush simply is not that kind of person.

Unfortunately if you don’t defend yourself, you can be made into a monster, and Bush allowed it. To this day at least HALF OF THE COUNTRY believes Bush lied. I don’t know what Trump believes and I don’t care, I just want Jeb defeated, and if he loses because his brother left us conservatives hanging dry on this issue and many others, SO BE IT.


86 posted on 02/14/2016 5:35:47 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: BobL; RC one

JEB was a fool to invoke W’s record into this process. Poor optics.


87 posted on 02/14/2016 5:38:40 AM PST by mad_as_he$$
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To: Rome2000

“Funny how there are no Kasich or Bush supporters on this Forum.”

Oh, there are many supporters of them and Rubio, or at least paid operatives, given the amount of money these campaigns have and the importance of this site. Obviously they know they’re toast here if they’re open about it, so they ‘claim’ to be Cruz supporters, but they are easy to identify.

If they make vile comments about Trump, then they’re not Cruz supporters, but support some other candidate, as their secondary objective is also make Cruz look bad. I just had to deal with a Jeb supporter trying to defend W - he gave himself away at the end.

If they don’t make vile comments...if they stick with substantive reasons to support Cruz (and there are many), then they’re much more likely to be true Cruz supporters, as true Cruz supporters understand who Trump is and why he’s doing what he’s doing.


88 posted on 02/14/2016 5:44:52 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: dynoman

You are not quoting all the words. Trump finished with ,”but not with abortion”.

Quote all the words.
________________________________________________________

So what work does PP do that is wonderful and worthy of taxpayer money as your hero maintains.

Don’t be a pussy answer the simple question.

They provide no unique valuable services. They are mass murderers the only money taxpayers should spend on them is prosecuting them for their illegal activities selling human organs.

Stop spinning and twisting answer the question.


89 posted on 02/14/2016 5:45:46 AM PST by Leto
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To: InterceptPoint

I used to believe #1, now not so much. The Israeli’s know the truth, and they aren’t telling. There is a huge question that remains unanswered about what was Task Force 20’s real mission. I know some guys that were on it and they are still confused about what the mission was.

http://www.americanspecialops.com/operations/sof-iraq/task-force-20.php


90 posted on 02/14/2016 5:50:41 AM PST by mad_as_he$$
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To: BobL

The screwy thing about WMDs is that the evidence was classified, and has dribbled out since. Even now most people think we did not find any.


91 posted on 02/14/2016 5:53:36 AM PST by D Rider
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This author is absolutely delusional. Trump’s numbers aren’t going anywhere. He wins SC in a walk. The only oeople watchung this drivel at 10:00 on Valentine’s Day is the professional pundit class and the hardcores here on FR.


92 posted on 02/14/2016 5:54:03 AM PST by usafa92 (Ted and Heidi = Jim and Tammy Faye)
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To: marygam

I am a very strong Trump supporter, and I saw the debate. I came away from watching the debate feeling like you:

“I saw a rabid dog come out last night. He was screaming, insulting and further more, Quite NASTY as he likes to claim others are. To me he acted
Anything but Presidential. Between his vitriol and the audience(stacked against anti-establishment) and the moderators, it was a colossal slugfest.”

Trump needs more restraint if he wants to be president.


93 posted on 02/14/2016 5:54:16 AM PST by ncpatriot
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To: Hostage

I agree that the way Bush prosecuted the war was HOPELESS. Countries like Iraq will not become Jeffersonian democracies, no matter how many surges or thousands of Americans try to make it that way.

As to the weapons, I don’t think Bush lied about, but if the Democrats are screaming that for a decade and you NEVER RESPOND, then it does become a fact, whether Bush or Jeb likes it or not.


94 posted on 02/14/2016 5:54:56 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: BobL
I don't know what Trump believes and I don't care,...

Well I care. I care a lot.

Trump told us last night what he believes: George Bush knowingly took us to war in Iraq knowing that there was no justification for doing so. He believes that Bush knew there was no basis for believing there were Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction.

That's what Trump said.

So the Trump Position on the Iraq War is identical to the Liberal Democrat Position.

Is he lying about that? Is he just making it up for political reasons? Is he on drugs? Is he just another Loose Cannon?

I don't know his reasons. But last night should have been a Trump Disaster. But apparently the Trumpettes and Trumpeteers and Trumpidiots could care less.

95 posted on 02/14/2016 5:56:41 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: MarDav

The point you raised, whether or not voters should not vote, was the point I addressed.

My point was that if you think you can accomplish something utilizing some make-believe principle of goodness by not voting as a protest is foolish. Hillary will waltz in.

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” — Burke
‎
‎


96 posted on 02/14/2016 6:02:57 AM PST by odawg
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To: BobL
"Bush didn’t lie, but the country, and most Republicans think he did, as he NEVER DEFENDED HIMSELF, unlike a certain candidate from NY will."

~~~~

Spot on.

If there is any situation where Trump excels, it is in covering his own @$$.

97 posted on 02/14/2016 6:09:56 AM PST by TXnMA ("Allah: Satan's current alias. "Obama": Allah's current ally...)
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To: InterceptPoint

“Well I care. I care a lot (about what Trump says).”

Why, you’re not voting for him anyway, and given your comments, there was NO WAY you’d ever support him.

No different than me with Rubio - I don’t care what he says because he’ll NEVER get my vote, now or in November, as he is a MUCH WORSE LIAR than Trump could ever be.


98 posted on 02/14/2016 6:13:00 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: mad_as_he$$

“JEB was a fool to invoke W’s record into this process. Poor optics.”

I suspect that he was trying to communicate with the GOPe, who are about ready to dump him. He was saying that he’ll defend their favorite of all time, his brother, but he can’t do that if he’s left hanging or is forced out


99 posted on 02/14/2016 6:18:19 AM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here is ACE of Spades. They should change their name to The Joker.

How many times have they predicted the end of Trump?

Trump will win South Carolina.

He has the same lead that he had in New Hampshire if not bigger in South Carolina.


100 posted on 02/14/2016 6:21:36 AM PST by Enlightened1
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