Posted on 02/09/2016 8:52:56 AM PST by PreciousLiberty
Elon Musk's Tesla recently became the latest big shot company to enter the self-driving car sweepstakes. Mr. Musk recently announced the hiring of software architecture veteran Jim Keller, who previously had played key roles at Apple and AMD, to lead its Autopilot Engineering team. Teslas move follows the recently announced partnership between General Motors and Lyft, in which the automaker is investing $500 million in the ridesharing company as part of a joint venture to develop self-driving cars.
And of course Google, Uber, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Apple, Audi, Bosch and Delphi Automotive (the big auto parts manufacturer) all have their own much-hyped development programs for autonomous vehicles in full swing. Forget cures for cancer, climate change or world peace, the media has made it clear that self-driving cars will be the Next Great Step in civilizations drive toward magnificence.
It's time to hit the brakes for a reality check.
Despite how much Uber CEO Travis Kalanick likes to crow about our "driverless future," outside of The Jetsons this one is...not...happening...soon. Besides the remaining technological challenges, the liability and regulatory issues involved in letting a 3,000-pound death machine steer itself with no human at the controls are huge.
(Excerpt) Read more at observer.com ...
So it’s behind the tech curve at least 1 generation, really closer to 2. Not really too much bearing on modern cars. And remember what they always say: your mileage may vary. My 04 Sentra was running strong until the November when the idiot made the illegal left in front of (which probably would have been avoided by a self driving car) and the biggest maintenance it needed was a round of new belts at $200. Oh I had just (really, 7 days before the accident) replaced the crank shaft sensor, but that was like $130. Now I don’t drive my cars as hard as you, so he only had 92,000 miles, but it was a champ. And that one had a lot less maintenance than the 92 Sentra it replaced (it had devolved to the point where it needed more work than it’s bluebook, and I was sick of looking at it. And I expect my 16 Elantra to run basically forever. There’s a reliability revolution in cars about every 5 years, as long as you avoid Ford of course. Actually that’s not fair, the modern Ford is more reliable than the Fords of 5 or 10 years ago, problem is they’re still not as reliable as their current competition.
The facts are in. On average, knowing there are always outliers, especially in the country, with snow I’m betting, cars are more reliable now than ever.
I have a 2nd generation Miata. I also have an older, more powerful sports car and the Miata is really more fun to drive.
A lot of the posters comments are depressing. I wonder if someone would develop a machine to sleep with their wife if they could buy one.
If you support taking away the ability to drive a car because it makes you safer or you are bored then I might support banning alcohol because it would reduce health care costs, or banning football because of concussions, or maybe movies with R ratings because of the corrosive effect on the culture.
Thanks for your post! You're restoring my faith in humanity and being HUMAN! :-)
Don't know if you ever read the backstory on the creation of the Mazda Miata, if not it's really quite interesting how the Mazda engineer's went about understanding the human experience of driving and the elements of driving that most appealed to people.
Things like how the exhaust sounded (a little "dirty" in the Gen1 and Gen2 Miata's) to the sensory feedback that came back through the steering wheel, gas pedal, seat during normal and more "sporty" driving conditions all mattered.
Miata wanted to appeal to the drivers sensory feedback as part of the driving experience. So the Miata wasn't the fastest car, it may not have handled corners the best, but everyone who drove it said it was fun to drive primarly because of how the engineer's "built in" or allowed all the sensory feedback to occur.
After four major lower back surgeries, I *wish* I could get into a car like the Miata, Saturn Skye, Pontiac Solstice or hell, even my old Pontiac Trans AM GTA because man they were fun to drive, all of 'em!
Punks will quickly realize they need only stand in the road in front of it and then have friends stand behind it to trap the robot truck. It will then be stuck due to its own safety systems and free for the looting.
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And what would a human do differently in this situation.
Move forward slowly so that they move out of the way? The computer can do that.
Call for help? The computer can do that.
Dispense Tear Gas? The computer can do that.
The modern car is a maintenance night mare. A transmission job is 3k to 4K, I’ve never had one go past 150K miles. Emissions anyone? EGR valve for my Camry 400 bucks!!!!!
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Maybe you need to pick better cars, or better routine maintenace.
Here’s my experience.
1964 VW Bug - Bought in 1967 with 12K miles. Went 265K before I rebuilt the engine.
1970 American Motors Ambassador Station Wagon - Bought new. Went 285K with no problems. Traded in 1980.
1983 Chrysler LeBaron - Bought new. Went 325K with only CV joints and I think, timing belts.
1990 Plymouth Reliant K Car - Bought new. Went 385K until shop changed oil and filter, and forgot to put new oil back in. Only CV joints and timing belts.
1992 Ford Ranger - Bought new. Went 110K miles until totaled.
1994 Ford Ranger - Bought new. Went 255K until gave to son. He’s still driving it.
2004 Dodge Dakota - Bought in 2007 with 105K. Now had 245K with another 70K towed behind our RV. Only new radiator and new water pump, two years apart, and new AC compressor. Still have.
Had other cars in there too, of course. But usually traded in with fairly low mileage.
Never needed new engine or transmission except where noted above.
For example, in the article I linked above, an AI driven vehicle was rear-ended by a human driver. If AI was so smart and so adaptable, why didn’t it hit the gas and move the vehicle out of the way to keep its occupant safe?
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Maybe because the computer is programmed NOT to run into the car stopped in front of it to avoid car hitting it from rear?
And of course, who says a human driver would have noticed the car coming from the rear in time to move out of the way either.?
Nobody is talking about taking away the ability to drive. We talking about adding a feature where you don’t have to drive if you don’t want to. Most of driving is boring, even in a sexy fun car like a Miata the daily commute for most involves a lot of hanging around at stop lights and not getting up over 40MPH. About the only way that gets exciting is if your car is such a maintenance mess it might not actually make the distance, and that’s more tense than exciting.
Think about it like GPS, most cars have GPS now, but you don’t have to use it. I almost never do, I know where I’m going, don’t need the car reminding me how to get to work. You could have a self driving car and still drive yourself, nobody is talking about removing the controls, or even don’t get a self driving car. Much like how the stick shift refuses to die I’m sure the driven car will have its dedicated following. It’s a feature, you’ll be able to get cars without it, and not use it in cars that do. The only folks talking about this technology being forced on people are the ones against it, everybody for it understands it as an option.
The modern car is EXPECTED to not need ANY of its metal parts replaced for 100,000 miles. Not one.
But they ALWAYS do. And after 100,000 EVERYTHING needs to be worked on sooner or later.
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Not true.
Initially its purchase and use will be voluntary, but then it will be required in all new cars but with voluntary use. Then it will become mandatory in some places (for the children) and so it goes. The mandated items on cars need to be reduced not increased.
Regarding GPS, why do I even have to buy it with a car if I don’t want it.
Proof? Oh yeah, you don’t have any. Paranoid crap. You don’t have to buy a car with GPS if you don’t want to, plenty of them don’t have it.
I have to buy airbags. I have to buy catalytic converters.
I have to buy a computer that retains information that I might not want retained much less buy.
Your concern about the AI 'not being able to know every permutation of every variable' was:
Or what if there were more accidents because AI cannot account for every (stupid) variable of human behavior behind the wheel?That is exactly why the complete lack of accidents for Google self driving cars is relevant. Get it now?
"So that's your reason for giving up your (and my) freedom???
Again, let's take away all firearms, ban McDonalds (makes people fat) and everything else that's potentially harmful because people are too stupid to make decisions for themselves.
Great logic you have there."
Your logic is nonexistent. No one is asking you to stop driving cars, and in fact there is no plan at the moment for cars that don't include manual controls. The idea that manually driven cars would be banned is nothing more than a wild conspiracy theory.
I'd often rather do something useful/interesting rather than pilot an auto across the landscape. A self-driving car is nothing more than an affordable chauffeur. If I feel like driving the vehicle, I will.
The fact that self-driving cars will also be safer than using a human chauffeur is simply icing on the cake.
You know, of course, all of us here, except for yourself, are automated response routines.....;^)
Clear, reset, enable...
That's because gun-toting bodyguard robots won't be available anytime soon. Besides, I enjoy shooting a lot more than I enjoy driving to work... ;-)
Because it couldn't ANTICIPATE like a human being, that's why."
Right, because we know of so many near-miss rear-end collisions where the human did that, right?
40% of all collisions are rear-end, with no successful avoidance.
Aside from all that, the self-driving cars may have had nowhere to go anyhow.
ROFL!!! Touche'!
"Have you tried turning if off and back on again?"
Or maybe it wasn't programmed for such a situation? We don't know either way, do we?
And of course, who says a human driver would have noticed the car coming from the rear in time to move out of the way either.?
You've unwittingly played right into my hands with this one. When I was taught to drive, you know --- back in the days when we had the Flintstone mobile without power anything, we were taught to always do "the triangle" when sitting at a stop light.
Check your rear view mirror
Check Left
Check Right
And always know what's going on around you -- even when you're NOT moving. That's called ANTICIPATION. It's the same exact thing I'm currently teaching my youngest son to do while teaching him to drive. Here's why the ability to ANTICIPATE and HUMAN JUDGEMENT will beat a computer every time.
It was a nice spring day back in 1989 and I was going to work in my restored 1976 Pontiac Grand Prix SJ with a 454 V-8 under the hood. I LOVED that car.
I'm sitting at a cross walk with a school crossing guard standing in the intersection in front of me with traffic stopped at all 4 corners while some pre-10 year old kids are crossing and going to school.
I'm doing the triangle, checking my rear view mirror, left, right, back to the rear view mirror when along comes some little old blue-hair lady in her Chevy Cavalier coming up behind me and she ain't stopping.
At the last second I put both feet on my brake and STAND ON IT. BAM!!!! Front end of Chevy Cavalier meets rear bumper of 1976 Pontiac Grand Prix SJ (did I mention it was fully restored, and had been for only about two weeks to that point?!)
What happened?
Front end of Chevy Cavalier completely totaled. Little old lady had her seat belt on, she wasn't hurt.
Rear bumper of my 1976 Pontiac Grand Prix SJ with a 454 V-8 had a chunk of rubber missing off the bumper, tail lights were cracked and the bumper was pushed in. Trunk lid damaged and popped up and trunk opening damaged. It was estimated she hit me between 30-35mph in a 25mph school zone.
What happened to the kids that were crossing in front of my vehicle as I got rear-ended by some blue-haired old lady that could barely see over her dashboard? SAFE AND SOUND.
Let me know when an AI computer can make that choice and save some kids.
(True story, btw. Just under $1,300 to repair the damage to my vehicle too. In 1989 dollars, that wasn't cheap.)
OK, first you postulate that a AI car was too stupid to accelerate, I assume through a stop sign or red light, to avoid being rear-ended.
Then suddenly we’re talking about you NOT accelerating to avoid being rear-ended, so you don’t mow down some kids.
Considering the AI cars have radar all around, it would be very easy to program the car to handle either of these situations as well, or better than a human.
And how do you know they aren’t already programmed to do just that?
I do know that in several of the cases that I’ve read about AI cars being rear-ended, they were sitting in traffic behind others cars with no where to go.
So what would you have had the AI do in that case?
No, not what I'm saying at all in the different examples I'm citing. My first point is and remains that it is impossible to program, or have a "learning algorithm" that will be smart enough to know what to do in all situations.
Who programs the AI? Humans. Heck, we don't get it right most of the time so how could an AI?
My second point is that nothing matches (a properly trained) human brain in terms of being able to anticipate and react to all the different variables that one comes across while driving. Again, we're imperfect but its our ability to anticipate and then react which sets us apart from anything AI can do.
That really is all there is to it.
Now, if you want to surrender your driving to a machine, you go right ahead. Just don't expect (or demand..) that I do it too.
That certainly wouldn't be a Conservative position to take on a Conservative forum now would it?
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