Carly/Carson/Gilmore: (5%) -Even ABC didn't think Carson was still in the race as they virtually ignored him for most of the debate. I'm no Carly fan, but at least she's been actively campaigning in NH and had she been on stage maybe Hillary Clinton would've been mentioned and attacked more than last night. Nevertheless, they probably won't comprise more than 5% of the NH vote, and that's including the handful of people who know who the heck Jim Gilmore is.
Christie/Bush/Kasich (40%) - Last night's debate was make or break for these guys. Had Rubio not stumbled and unified the Establishment, they'd pretty much all be toast. But that didn't happen. Kasich is apparently where Huntsman was 4 years ago in the polls and Bush is close behind. Christie was lagging despite the Union Leader endorsement, but after the assault he put in Rubio last night, it's almost certain that he will at least get to double digits with the rest of them. And that's the problem. None of these guys have nowhere to go after NH so taking down Rubio as important as it was, won't be good enough. Had Rubio consolidated the Establishment vote, the 3 Governors may have combined for as high as 30% on Tuesday, but now it looks more likely that they will take at least 40% with all 3 of them hovering around 13% plus or minus a few points. In this situation, I don't see what difference it makes to be the lead Governor here unless one of them tops Rubio.
Rubio - He blew it, no way around to say it. Rubio had the best chance to jump into the mid-upper 20's had he consolidated the Establishment vote. But now it's a cluster. He could still probably finish ahead of the 3 Gov's or slip into the same percentages with them. I'm guessing 15% is his floor where one of the Govs may or may not catch him for 3rd.
So that leaves 40% of the vote to decide between Trump and Cruz, meaning the first one to 20% wins.
Cruz largely avoided the Rubio assault last night and nobody really attacked him because his voters are not the same for the Establshment. A good showing for Cruz would be to pick up at least 70% of Santorum voters and 50% of Ron Paul supporters from the 2012 results which would get him to around 18% and clear 2nd. But because it looks like whoever can post 20% will win, there is a slight chance Cruz can slip through and win in an upset. If that happened, it would be a historic upset and I don't think the margin would be more than a handful of votes.
That leaves Trump. After assigning all the numbers, I see Trump winning the NH Primary with about 22% of the vote. He could get to 25% if Cruz fails to clear the field for a solid 2nd, but I think 25% is his cap. This is why that debate for Rubio was so devestating last night. Trump largely stayed out of the fray but some of his answers were horrid such as on eminent domain, forgetting that there's $350B in Medicaid already taking care of the indigent, and his cheap shot at Cruz in the end in his closing statement that was pretty cowardly.
But NH is a liberal/moderate state. And for those of you into facts, the last time a GOP Candidate won a contested NH Primary AND the Presidency was in 1988 with Bush 41. The last time a Democratic Candidate won a contested Dem Primary AND the Presicdency was Jimmy Carter in 1976! So this thing about NH picking President may be over-rated because Obama, GWB, and Clinton all lost their contested NH Primaries.
To Recap: Trump 22% Cruz: 18% Rubio: 15% Kasich/Bush/Christie: ~40% total Caly/Carson/Gilmore: ~5% total
Trump 32%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Christie 12%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 2%
As long as we keep Trump and Cruz in, it’s ok to me. I don’t trust Rubio or the GOPe and media that is so hellbent on propping him up. The rest of the losers need to go home. Wish Paul would have stayed in alittle longer. He would have been my 3rd choice.
Trump 35 Cruz 20 Christie 10 Rubio 8 Carson 7 all others 20
Last set of pollsters failed in Iowa and over estimated Trump support to equal votes, and underestimated Cruz and the grass roots. Will it be the same thing as last time, I don’t know, but I am sure that Trump isn’t as strong after the loss, and people are talking Cruz more serious.
Thanks. Interesting on prior NH stats.
You always amaze me. Thank-you for your analysis. Did you call Cruz for the winner in Iowa or just what his ceiling was.
And how do you think the independents will affect the numbers?
Bookmark for the primary!
1. Trump will under-perform predictions. Reason - Iowa Caucus last minute deciders almost never supported Trump, and I think that will be true in NH. If you like Trump’s style, you already support him. If you don’t like Trump’s style, you are deciding which non-Trump candidate to support. Nothing against Trump, and he’s my #2 choice, but I don’t expect him to surge on election day anywhere.
2. Rubio will finish where expected. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance will hurt him, but his superficial charm will attract a good share of last minute deciders who did not watch.
3. Jeb will finish better than expected. I don’t think NH had enough exposure that he turned off the people who were not watching. He’ll get more than his share of last minute voters, particularly those who think he’s George W. or Daddy Bush.
4. Christie will finish below expectations. His attacks on Rubio were aggressive and well-delivered, but the style is too close to Trump. The people who would like him on style are already Trump supporters.
5. Cruz will surprise us again by getting his voters to the polls. He also didn’t do anything that would seriously offend undecided voters in the last two days before the primary.
6. Carson - I have no idea. Did he handle CNN’s “suspending his campaign” debacle well and show character, or did he make a mistake and show a lack of seriousness by getting into that situation in the first place. Is he amiable and a worthy replacement for the hateful bigot we’re stuck with for 49 more weeks, or is he too gentle for a tough job?
Kasich, Fiorina, and Gilmore are still on the ballot. I will be surprised if they are more than a footnote.
Very sound analysis, but New Hampshire voters aren`t only unpredictable, there is another wildcard: a contested Democrat primary. In 2012, there was no contest and these people felt free to raid the GOP primary and goose the vote total for people like Huntsman and Romney.
This time there could be more of the same if that crowd thinks Bernie has it sewn up or, as may be equally likely, thinks Hillary will win in the end anyway and just don’t want to harm their inevitable party nominee.
How many voters fit this wildcard remains to be seen. We’ll see on Tuesday night.
I think you may be dismissing the politics of the state. Look at who they elect: Socialists dems and gop-e RINOs. That’s what they prefer.
I would bet on the candidates that fit the profile and would expect Rubio/Trump to be close. Bush may even outperform expectations. A conservative like Cruz will be fighting a steep, uphill battle in a state like NH with a near polar opposite political philosophy from the voters.
forgetting that there's $350B in Medicaid already taking care of the indigent, and his cheap shot at Cruz in the end in his closing statement that was pretty cowardly.
That is a huge selective nothing-burger. Trump's opening remarks, his position on waterboarding and his assault on the donor audience is the only thing folks will remember - aside from Cruz's waterboarding-is-torture position as he agreed with McLame.
Cruz should have gotten easily 35% or more in IA. He was knotted in a three-way tie instead - all other negatives about Cruz aside. I think Cruz is sliding in NH and the debate helped him not one twit.
I agree I think that the Govs and Rubio will sit around 12 13 % I see Gilmore,Carson,Carly getting under ten points combined. I went with nine for the math, leaving 44% to divide between Cruz and Trump. Most polls have Cruz at around 15%, but his debate last night was solid I see him getting up towards 20 or 21% Leaving Trump at 23 to 24%
Trump 23 to 24
Cruz 20 to 21
Rubio 15
Christie 12
Kasich 11
Jeb 10
Carson 4
Carly 4
Gilmore 1
This makes the rest of the race very interesting, because both the winners of the last two contests can go to SC and say look I can win in my stomping grounds, and be competitive every where else. In the end I think that bodes better for Cruz, because historically Conservatives do not do well in places like New Hampshire.
After last night I don’t know exactly how big Trumps win will be but its sure to be yuuuuuge! :-)