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This is the new tact by the media. Trump is leading all the polls, so they are trying to say that he’s not anybody’s second choice and therefore he will lose. The argument is ridiculous on it’s face.

First, anyone who drops out now will have no statistical impact on anyone’s support. Second, people have no firm allegiance to any candidate at this point (Trump supporters excepted) so to lock them into a second choice is like trying to get your 5 yo to decide between cake or ice cream. Third, Fiorina has plateaued and will crater after the econ debate. Carson is a nice guy, but has no realistic chance of winning.

So basically we have 6 candidates who are not leaving anytime soon 1) Trump 2) Carson 3) Fiorino 4) Amnestio 5) Yeb and 6) Cruz. If Trump stays in the 25-30 range (depending on poll) and improves his numbers a few points, he’s in great shape going into the first primaries. Once a candidate begins winning, a herd effect takes shape because ppl want to back a winner. So if Yeb or Fiorino drop out, what their supporters say they will do today is no indication of what they do in March.

As a NJ guy I absolutely love Trump’s brashness and confrontational style. However, the last week Trump has toned down the attacks and insults and coupled with the release of his Tax plan, has arrested his slide and is on the upswing. If Trump stays just enough Trump and continues to maintain a strong policy perspective he will attract more supporters. I would love to see him put out a serious policy proposal for reforming the VA and then follow that with some broad based deficit reduction ideas. The people will love it and it will keep the pinheads in the media and GOPe grasping at straws...