Posted on 08/30/2014 8:04:13 AM PDT by alexmark1917
Rapidly Mutating Ebola Renders Diagnostic Tests Inaccurate - AKA: You May Have a New Strain of Ebola and Test Negative
An international team of scientists — some of whom succumbed to the virus during the course of their research — has sequenced 99 Ebola virus genomes from 78 patients in Sierra Leone, creating a valuable trove of genetic data for scientists and health care workers struggling to bring the growing outbreak under control.
...
"We were able to sequence and analyze our samples with about a 10-day turnaround. This is unprecedented, as earlier studies have usually taken many months with much smaller datasets," says Daniel J. Park, a co-author and computational biologist at the Broad Institute, in an email interview with Mashable.
The research, which used an advanced genetic analysis technique known as deep sequencing, reveals that the disease is rapidly accumulating mutations as it spreads.
The team found 395 genetic changes, including 341 that make this outbreak distinct from the viral genomes tied to previous Ebola outbreaks, and 50 that are unique to the West African outbreak more broadly.
Of particular interest are mutations that alter protein sequences, since they could potentially change the accuracy of diagnostic tests for the virus as well as vaccines and therapies.
It is unclear if these mutations are related to the severity of the current outbreak, but further genetic analysis could determine this.
http://mashable.com/2014/08/28/dna-ebola-virus-sierra-leone-entered-country-funeral-guinea-study/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link
For starters, the data show that the virus is rapidly accumulating new mutations as it spreads through people. "We've found over 250 mutations that are changing in real time as we're watching," Sabeti says.
While moving through the human population in West Africa, she says, the virus has been collecting mutations about twice as quickly as it did while circulating among animals in the past decade or so.
"The more time you give a virus to mutate and the more human-to-human transmission you see," she says, "the more opportunities you give it to fall upon some [mutation] that could make it more easily transmissible or more pathogenic."
Sabeti says she doesn't know if that's happening yet. But the rapid change in the virus' genome could weaken the tools researchers have to detect Ebola or, potentially, to treat patients.
Diagnostic tests, experimental vaccines and drugs for Ebola — like the one recently used to treat two American patients — are all based on the gene sequences of the virus, Sabeti says. "If the virus is mutating away from the known sequence, that could be important to how these things work."
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/08/28/343734184/ebola-is-rapidly-mutating-as-it-spreads-across-west-africa?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=science
Five of the researchers who helped decode the Ebola virus genome have died in the current outbreak. http://t.co/JsZxglO2rE
— Karen Kaplan (@LATkarenkaplan) August 28, 2014
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FDA-Approved Selective Estrogen Receptor Modulators Inhibit Ebola Virus Infection
http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/5/190/190ra79.full.pdf
CDC Director Frieden: Risk is Increasing Tom Frieden's Ebola Assessment: The Risk Is Increasing
...Frieden says there's now a vicious cycle around Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia, which is amplifying the spread of the disease. "More cases are leading to less adequate management of each case, which is leading to more cases," he says. "That cycle has got to be broken for us to stop this."
The best hope lies in a new $489 million plan proposed by the World Health Organization, with the goal of stopping Ebola transmission within nine months. The ambitious plan would deploy hundreds of international experts and thousands of local medical staff. But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
Meanwhile, the bad news is mounting. "The number of cases is spiraling upward," he says. "There's an urgent need to get patients into isolation and start to get better control of the disease."
"This is a threat not just to West Africa and to Africa, this is a threat to the world," Frieden says, emphasizing the need to fund WHO's effort. Every day the outbreak continues "increases the risk of spread to other countries."
West African health departments don't have the staff, training or equipment to control this disease on their own, Frieden says. That means the international community must pick up the pace of its response to the crisis.
"Literally every day that we don't make more progress controlling the outbreak," Frieden says, "is another day that the outbreak will not just continue — but grow much larger."
http://kuow.org/post/tom-friedens-ebola-assessment-risk-increasing?utm_referrer=http://m.kuow.org/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F#mobile/40830
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/Diseased_Ebola_2014.png/360px-Diseased_Ebola_2014.png
New Strain in DR Congo:
The Health Minister Felix Kabange, announced Thursday, Aug. 28 that seven new cases of Ebola have been confirmed by laboratory tests. Bringing to thirteen the number of people affected by the virus in the area Djera people in northern Ecuador, where the epidemic was declared.
http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2014/08/29/rdc-7-nouveaux-cas-debola-djera/
US Expecting THOUSANDS Of College Students From West AfricaTo Attend School in US...."MAY" BE SUBJECT TO HEALTH CHECKS
College students from West Africa may be subject to extra health checks when they arrive to study in the United States as administrators try to insulate their campuses from the worst Ebola outbreak in history.
With the virus continuing to kill in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, the expected arrival of thousands of students from those countries has U.S. authorities on alert but cautioning against alarm.
"I can see why there would be concern; there's no vaccine for it," said Fatima Nor, an 18-year-old freshman at the University at Buffalo, where about 25 students from Nigeria are enrolled for fall. But she said knowing that the virus is transmitted strictly through direct contact with bodily fluids of sick people, and not by sitting next to someone in class, should be enough to calm nerves.
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/08/29/us-colleges-screen-some-students-for-ebola/
CDC Changes Criteria for Ebola Transmission; admits "being within 3 feet" or "in same room" can cause infection
THIS WEEK the CDC changed their information about how Ebola can spread; they now admit "being within 3 feet" of an infected person or "being in the same room" with an infected person can allow the virus to infect someone else! They also admit a person who is infected, but not yet showing symptoms, is contagious!
http://preventebola.com/public/index.php/news/54-cdc-changes-criteria-for-ebola-transmission-admits-being-within-3-feet-or-in-same-room-can-cause-infection
video: http://investmentwatchblog.com/rapidly-mutating-ebola-renders-diagnostic-tests-inaccurate-aka-you-may-have-a-new-strain-of-ebola-and-test-negative/
However, if you do research or work with patients, you have to deal with sharps that can pierce the spacesuit and allow entry to the virus and you have to be able to manipulate small objects while wearing thick gloves. Think of the lab tech who draws your blood--do you think he or she will be able to do that with as much ease while wearing a spacesuit tethered to an air supply, with hands encased in two pairs of surgical gloves inside thick latex gloves?
People who are trained to work in BSL-4 labs are also highly educated--many of them have or are working a PhD or masters--you don't get people with this skill set with a few weeks of training.
Very few PhDs receive the training necessary to do research under BSL-4 conditions. Very few physicians are qualified to work under those conditions. It really requires a special skill set.
I tried to find videos that explain BSL-4 level labs and show working conditions inside them; they are surprisingly hard to find. However, I did find a few videos that give some clue. This video is a short (3:40) about a Swedish BSL-4 lab, which shows some of the work being done. This video (3:55) discusses some of the engineering controls and considerations for working at BSL-4, but does not show actual BSL-4 work being done. If you are up for a whole hour-long video on BSL-4, you can watch this one. It discusses the security of BSL-4--these are high-security labs.
As I said before, working with viruses like Ebola is extremely dangerous, and there are few scientists who have undergone the several months of training required to work with them. Personally, I prefer to work at BSL-2, where gloves, lab coat, and face/eye protection are sufficient.
Just imagine the fast food worker who hands hundreds of people their orders at the drive through window being contagious but not yet symptomatic. Or the supermarket cashier who hands you your change. Or the commuter train conductor who takes your ticket, punches it, and hands it back to you. Or...
The WHO site lists sweat as one of the bodily fluids which can spread Ebola. And it's still summer.
Ebola is not contagious until symptoms appear. Symptoms appear rapidly, and consist of fever, headache, weakness, muscle aches, and sore throat. Within days, a rash and subdermal bleeding can appear. I would think that a symptomatic person would be unable to do much of anything.
The WHO site lists sweat as one of the bodily fluids which can spread Ebola. And it's still summer.
Maybe, maybe not. There has never been a systematic study that establishes the presence of virus in most body fluids. However, many Ebola patients bleed, which would contaminate their sweat.
Ebola spreads by contact with bodily fluids. Don't touch an Ebola patient or anything that patient has touched. Stay at least 6 feet away. Better yet, don't go anywhere near an Ebola patient unless you have covered yourself from head to toe with appropriate protective gear.
"Better yet, don't go anywhere near an Ebola patient unless you have covered yourself from head to toe with appropriate protective gear."
to:
"Better yet, don't go anywhere near an Ebola victim unless you have covered yourself from head to toe with appropriate protective gear."
Ebola victims are often found outside hospitals. They just tend to move, or be moved, into hospitals after their infection with Ebola is discovered, not necessarily by them. Ebola victims who are not medical personnel almost always first develop visible symptoms someplace other than hospitals.
The problem is that the areas where they had been before their being removed to hospital, but after the onset of their visible symptoms, can be contaminated with Ebola for several days. Once that happens to more than a few places in America, we will be in big trouble.
That is my medical background speaking. Once people get sick, I tend to think of them as patients no matter where they are. Even when they are on their way to the morgue, I still think of them as patients.
With all the mutations going on, no one can say with 100 percent certainty what is safe. Your statement is true for the known strains, except maybe the Reston strain, which hasn’t caused symptoms/death in humans so far as I know.
If the “elites” were as smart as they think they are, they would already be shutting down travel from Africa, using various contrived excuses. My guess is that they are firmly convinced that nothing can ever happen to them.
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Amen to that. I can’t believe they didn’t shut down all travel the minute it broke out in a big city with international travelers.
Thanks for posting that info. I was having trouble finding it.
If we get an outbreak here, I plan on staying home for at least a year.
Article dated August 27, 2014.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ebola-upper-hand-us-official-25130896
A third top doctor has died from Ebola in Sierra Leone, a government official said Wednesday, as health workers tried to determine how a fourth scientist also contracted the disease before being evacuated to Europe.
The World Health Organization said it was sending a team to investigate how the epidemiologist now undergoing treatment in Germany may have contracted the disease that kills more than half its victims.
The Senegalese epidemiologist who was evacuated to Germany had been doing surveillance work for the U.N. health agency, said Feig, the WHO spokeswoman. The position involves coordinating the outbreak response by working with lab experts, health workers and hospitals, but does not usually involve direct treatment of patients.
“He wasn't in treatment centers normally,” she said by telephone from Sierra Leone. “It's possible he went in there and wasn't properly covered, but that's why we've taken this unusual measure — to try to figure out what happened.”
WHO said late Tuesday that it was pulling out its team from the eastern Sierra Leonean city of Kailahun, where the epidemiologist working with the organization was recently infected. The team was exhausted and the added stress of a colleague getting sick could increase the risk of mistakes, said Daniel Kertesz, the organization's representative in the country.
Canada also announced late Tuesday it was evacuating a three-member mobile laboratory team from Sierra Leone after people in their hotel were diagnosed with Ebola. The Public Agency of Canada said none of the team members was showing any signs of illness but that they would remain in voluntary isolation during the 21-day incubation period.
Thanks for the ping Chogal.
S.Joe, is this article linked to your thread yet?
IIRC, the Reston Strain did not indicate positive on two of the three strains they tested for. Several of the people working there did test positive for the Reston Strain, but were never even sick. It was deadly for the Monkeys though.
This is a key assumption, which may no longer be true.
This epidemic is progressing very differently from all previous outbreaks of the disease. Something has changed. Quite possibly, the virus has a longer incubation period and is contagious before visible symptoms appear in the victims. The virus may also persist on contaminated surfaces for a longer period than its ancestors did.
These ideas could be tested and decisive answers obtained which would drastically change the containment strategies.
Yes, it is, thanks.
There is no evidence to suggest that the virus behaves differently than already established. The reason this outbreak is persisting and spreading is cultural. Many of the people in the area do not believe that Ebola exists. Conspiracy theories are circulating widely. They believe that the WHO is tricking people into going to hospitals, killing them, and stealing their organs. So when they get sick, they are not going to the hospital, but hiding out. The people taking care of them are then at grave risk of contracting the disease themselves. Add to that their funeral practices, which involve very close touching of the dead bodies, giving them enemas, and--if the dead person is a pregnant woman--removing the fetus, because they do not allow a pregnant woman to be buried. With so much going on to foster the spread of the disease, there is no need to assume that the virus itself has made some drastic change.
As far as Ebola outbreaks go, this one is actually pretty mild. Outbreaks have had death rates up to 95%. This one is less than 60%. With care started soon after symptoms appear, Ebola is not necessarily a death sentence.
There is one thing that was brought up in the recent Science publication. That is that the longer this outbreak continues without being contained, the more chance there is that the disease will mutate to a more contagious form. That would be very bad.
All of these behaviors were displayed in previous Ebola epidemics. The disease simply did not spread to the extant that we see in this episode. That is the "evidence" that the virus is behaving differently.
There are other explanations for the different results this time - most obvious is that population densities are much greater in the cities now. Perhaps that is the key factor. The answers to the question "why is it different this time?" are important. Those answers will determine whether we can find effective means to quell the epidemic.
The traditional remedy for Ebola was never a trip to the hospital. Most patients did not survive long enough to make the trip. Patients were confined to their homes until they (and their caregivers) died. Then the villagers burned the home.
“Ebola is not contagious until symptoms appear. Symptoms appear rapidly, and consist of fever, headache, weakness, muscle aches, and sore throat. Within days, a rash and subdermal bleeding can appear. I would think that a symptomatic person would be unable to do much of anything.”
Good general health, hydration and nutrition may effect how first symptoms will occur and how they are recognized. Some folks because of genetics may have only vague symptoms and experience what might be a moderate flu and then recover all the while still shedding virus. Not every Ebola sufferer will get fatally sick....those are the most dangerous cases because it may not be recognized that these special cases even have the virus until others around them get fatally sick and the medical professionals start to trace their contacts. There are known cases of mild Ebola sufferers who had what seemd to be flu like symptoms
Ebola may produce scores of asymptomatic “typhoid Marys”. If a few of them get loose in the Gay, Lesbian, or hetero loose “hook up” cultures as well as IV drug abusers...then watch this illness go apocalyptic in its effects!
A drop of Sarin or VX on exposed skin is far more immediately lethal than a drop of snot with 10 viral particles of Ebola.
And in the case of VX, it is lethally persistent for three weeks, if not decontaminated or broken down by strong direct sunlight.
>>For another, if you are cleaning up the residues of
>>a chemical weapon release, it is unlikely that you
>>are operating in an environment that requires a
>>great deal of manual dexterity and involves routinely
>>handling objects that can pierce the protective suit.
As my day job included the production of equipment for the M17 lightweight decontamination system, I can tell your complete ignorance of what the Chemical Casualty Care Division, US Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Md teaches its medics regards giving care in a mission-oriented protective posture - 4 (MOPP-4) gear in an immediately lethal contaminated environment.
An Army medic is expected to treat a nerve gas contaminated soldier, work with others to decontaminate that wounded soldier and get both the soldier and himself into a clean environment for further treatment of small arms, IED or artillery fragmentation wounds.
This is a much higher level of performance than CDC BHL-4...and the US Army regularly trains thousands of average and below average intelligence people to that standard.
The reason this is so is because the US Army specializes in dealing mass death on a mass production basis.
For instance, it has taken the tasks of a BHL-4 type environment decontamination and done extensive time and motion studies to break down it's MOPP-4 decontamination into small mass production/simple checklist tasks that anyone with an IQ of 90 could do.
US Army decontamination is one hell of a lot faster than CDC style BHL-4 decontamination because its decontamination tasks are broken down into five or more stations that do the complete job on a mass thru put basis.
That is a much different and far more appropriate mindset for dealing with the mass contamination threats of Ebola epidemic than the civilian medical system/CDC BHL-4 mindset.
Given your ignorance of the subject, I suggest you go through the following documents.
1. See this 2013 document at pages 69 to 79 of 143 —
Operations in Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Environments
www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_11.pdf
2. See this 2006 document on US Military equipment posture regards chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CNRN)warfare —
Chemical Defense Equipment
Chapter 17 (starts pg 559)
CHEMICAL DEFENSE EQUIPMENT
https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=18064
3. And finally see this 1997 document starting page 13 of 26 regards training of American military in toxic environments —
CHAPTER 5
NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL DEFENSE READINESS AND TRAINING
www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nbc97/9705.pdf
Ebola may produce scores of asymptomatic “typhoid Marys”. If a few of them get loose in the Gay, Lesbian, or hetero loose “hook up” cultures as well as IV drug abusers...then watch this illness go apocalyptic in its effects!
An asymptomatic case is highly unlikely to be contagious. Ebola is a bloodborne pathogen--how many people with hepatitis or AIDS have you walked past, without ever catching the disease? Also, the evidence is that there is no reservoir within the body that can shield the virus from the immune system. Once the infection is past, the virus clears. It takes longer to clear from some fluids than others, but it does eventually clear.
Also, I will engage in pure speculation here and say that a mildly symptomatic person who does pass the disease to someone else is more likely to pass mild disease... since the virus has been passaged for less severe disease in that person. Given that microorganisms can be passaged for greater pathogenicity, I would reason that the opposite is true, as well.
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