North Korea: What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?

Yahoo! News / The Christian Science Monitor ^ | March 29, 2013 | Anna Mulrine

[2ndDivisionVet]

In the event that the 'bellicose rhetoric' of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un turns into something more serious, the opening hours of conflict could be 'pretty ugly,' defense analysts warn.

Veteran North Korea watchers, citing what they see as increasingly troubling signs coming from the dictatorial regime, are voicing concerns that its new young leader, Kim Jong-un, could do something ill-advised, even start a war.

On Friday North Korea renewed what the U.S. has condemned as its “bellicose rhetoric,” saying Kim had ordered the nation’s missile forces to prepare to strike the United States and South Korea.

In response to the prospect of North Korea following through on this and other marginally less dire threats, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday that the US military “will unequivocally defend, and [is] unequivocally committed to the alliance with, South Korea.”

But if hostilities were in fact to erupt, how might they play out?

Some former US Special Operations Forces and longtime Korea defense analysts have their own thoughts on what an “unequivocal” US military response could look like, including how US troops would be deployed in the event of a lethal first strike on US and allied military forces by North Korea – precisely the sort of move Mr. Kim has been threatening to make.

What would such a first North Korean move resemble? It might involve small-scale infiltrations using mini-submarines, assassination attempts.....

[BobL]

“It ain’t just liberals that doubt your SHTF fantasies.”

I have NO IDEA what you’re talking about - you really need to lighten up on the meds.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

What if North Korea isn’t acting alone? What if they are planning something in concert with Iran and other enemies of the USA? A move against south Korea and bases in, Japan, as China moves on Japanese Islands, and Iran launches attacks on Israel? What if other nations get involved—like Egypt, and even—in some way Russia? Maybe Cuba as well? The North Koreans might be working a Sadat —a quick war with some gains, then a turn to the UN to get a good treaty! A few bits of territory—like some Islands or a strip of land might—be turned into food and money. Obama will be reluctant to go to war.

[caww]

Yep...lots of barganing will be happening..and Kim Un’s puppet masters knows interested parties will be doing just that...but this time I think those parties will not play the hand the old gezzers have become accustomed to.

Keep in mind China voted WITH the UN on these newest sanctions. Which tells me pressure or bargaining happened in order for China side with the UN on N.Korea....there are a lot of chips on the table I think, and all with vested interests have something significant to gain if they choose to corner Kim and his cronnies further.

But there are huge problems if they determine to shut the leadership down. S.Korea doesn't want the Northerner's crossing their borders and flood their nations infrastructure.....better a slow trickle which they are taking care of.....China surely doesn't want them over their border and flood them either. So there would have to be some-kind of containment...temporarily.

The N. Koreans have been living with a fifties mindset.....passed on to the next generations and this under a cult leadership. However, for years now cell phones and other informaton has been smuggled over to show the people how things really are in the rest of the world....how much of this got thru is uncertain...and even if so, the people would be, for the most part, too afraid to speak of amongst themselves.

With starvation issues etc. there would have to be an International push to get food etc. into the country...distributed ...and no doubt at all “Nation Building”....so lots of money from somewhere. In addition, educating the people...bringing them up to the 21st century...a huge project in itself. Like bringing someone out of a time warp.

So one of the bigger questions will be...how many countries and organizations can and would do this?...

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

You should check out Anatoliy Golitsyn and other KGB defectors, or also JR Nyquist, an expert on the subject. Golitsyn hasn’t written for awhile, but he predicted the restructuring of the Communist Bloc before it happened, claiming it was a pre-planned strategy to “take one step back, two steps forward.” According to his thesis, Russia was using the same old Communist playbook first put into practice by Lenin himself, wherein they make strategic retreats and feign liberalization in order to “buy from them the rope that we will hang them with.” This also includes false splits in the communist bloc, establishment of a new party face, only to move back to the original communist forms once the strategy is no longer needed.

According to this scenario, the Communist Bloc is still alive and well, simply under different names, but with the same old goals. Therefore, we should view us as still in the cold war, with North Korea, Iran (ImaNutJob’s first task in office during his last election was to visit Moscow), and other crackpot nations as their proxies in a larger war.

In fact, according to Alexander Litnenvenko (I probably spelled his last name wrong, but he was the fellow who was poisoned by Polonium 2010 awhile back), the number two man in Al-Qaeda (now number one) was trained by the FSB and does their bidding.

The end came is convergence between East-West under communist terms, and concludes with a nuclear strike and occupation of the United States.

Obviously, it’s a scary world we live in.

[caww]

It’s true the US owes China trillions...but that can work the other way too...because they want to get paid don’t they? and they surely want to cotinue “selling” goods over here.... So that debt can be used as a bargaining tool and I don’t think they will interrupt the trade with us...at least how things stand now.

Still the question remains how the parties will bargain and come to some aggreement, if even possible, that might finally address the N.Korean sad state of affairs, and this with the fewest casualties if someone does stike..

[Yardstick]

Uh huh, right.

[jttpwalsh]

Interesting times. The USA will be one of the countries that would do this. We usually always subvert our best interests in place of being “nice guys”. Then, just like Charlie Brown, we are shocked when Lucy pulls the football away. Thanks for your input, on the subject.

[enduserindy]

I think the biggest concern should be China’s response. Seems like that was a big deal last time??

[The Antiyuppie]

“It’s not our response that concerns me. No question we can obliviate them. I am more concerned about their first shot.”

That “first shot” will certainly do some damage to South Korea. I understand that they have thousands of probably remotely controlled artillery pieces aimed at Seoul (not far from the border). Short of a preemptive nuclear strike, those are “gonna happen”.

Another thing I wonder about is, suppose that they actually attempt a nuke - and it gets shot down (possible), or it doesn’t work (probable)? What is our response?

[The Antiyuppie]

“It’s true the US owes China trillions...but that can work the other way too...because they want to get paid don’t they?”

What is the line...”if you owe the bank a thousand dollars and can’t pay it, you are in trouble...if you owe the bank a million dollars and can’t pay it, the bank is in trouble”?

[MinorityRepublican]

I agree. The Cold War is over. So why the frack are we in Korea?

[FreedomStar3028]

Why do only a few people around here understand that it isn’t SK vs NK. It’s China/Russia/NK/(Possibly Iran) vs Japan/US/SK. You think Europe is gonna be in this one? Hell no.

[FreedomStar3028]

Are you the one fantasizing about using all your prep while people that haven’t “prepped” get raped and murdered?

You’re sick. I hope your neighbors and friends don’t know you’ve prepped.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

“I agree. The Cold War is over. So why the frack are we in Korea?”

---

Because the cold war isn’t over. We just stopped fighting it. The Russkies and Chicoms arm and supply North Korea and use them as a proxy against us. If a nuke goes off in the United States, it is THEIR doing.

Check out New Lies for Old by Anatoliy Golitsyn, former KGB Defector who anticipated the Russkie Perestroika, and Origins of the Fourth World War by JR Nyquist (his thesis is that world wars are inevitable... therefore, WWIII is inevitable, so already he’s anticipating WWIV, and so on and so forth). He goes over Golitsyn and other defectors who make the same predictions, though it is also a profoundly philosophical book.

[MinorityRepublican]

I’m not paranoid as you are. The Chinese and the Russians are Capitalist now. Sure the Chi-Coms and the KGB/Mafia are in charge but in many ways, you are more free in those countries than in USA. Just don’t mention politics out there.

[PhilDragoo]

Truman wouldn't let MacArthur remove the Chinese armies with U.S. nuclear weapons.

Ike got things stabilized--but the DPRK just blew off the armistice.

Savage tonight doubted any today could fight as the 30K Chosin Frozen, sleeping in the snow, fighting in thirty below.

Will Kim Jong-Un use weapons some say are "fake"?

NORTH KOREA’S MOBILE MISSILE THREATENS U.S. U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that he believes North Korea is close to deploying an intercontinental ballistic missile which can threaten the U.S. The KN-08 ICBM is believed to be road-mobile and represents a “quantum leap in the North Korean missile threat,” Clapper said. Although Pyongyang has not tested the KN-08, several of the missiles were spotted moving around the country in January. Road-mobile North Korean missiles pose a serious threat to the U.S. and its allies because they can be moved around covertly, and are difficult to detect and target. There are also concerns that the technology could be transferred to other nefarious actors, including Iran. (Washington Free Beacon, March 14, 2013)

North Korea's New Long-Range Missile: Fact or Fiction?

Can Beijing back a North Korean attack without a serious blowback crippling its economy? Would this be a Pearl Harbor to dispel a period of inattention and apathy?

Regarding Putin, is he a fool? Is the KGB chief of East Germany and Stalinophile willing to gamble his warm-water port with an Asian distraction?

Despite America's cryptoislamocommunist crack-smoking closet queen CINC, her armed forces will crush any foe with or without state of the art technology.

The Arab Spring thinly disguised Saudi ringing of Israel will run up against the Syria-Iran-Russia team soon.

This is Kim Jong-Un's fifteen minutes.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

“I’m not paranoid as you are. The Chinese and the Russians are Capitalist now. Sure the Chi-Coms and the KGB/Mafia are in charge but in many ways, you are more free in those countries than in USA. Just don’t mention politics out there.”

---

You’re kidding, right? People routinely get murdered over there for angering government officials. By definition, if Chi-Coms and KGB goons are running things, you are not more “free.” The entire election system over there is a farce, and Putin is slowly bringing back the cult of Stalin and the power of the USSR.

[zeestephen]

Re: “This feels very different from past provocations.”

I agree, rebel.

I'm not reassured by the maps that show the USA mainland out of range from NK’s missiles.

There's no reason a nuclear armed drone can't be launched from a fishing trawler 200 miles off shore.

As a resident of Seattle, this is not a theoretical exercise in my mind.

[JohnD9207]

North Korea: What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?
________________

A very bright light in the north.

[JohnD9207]

OH WAIT...for a minute I actually forgot that Obama was President.