Posted on 11/04/2012 9:33:22 PM PST by freedomrings69
If polls and commentators such as Barone and Morris are correct and Romney is going to win big then Intrade is way off. Is there any precedent for Intrade showing such off results this close to an election? I know in 2004 after phony exit polls were released they had Kerry way up, but right now I see no published items that would indicate traders using real money should be so heavy for Obama. Some have said Intrade is being manipulated but is there any precedent for that?
Check the site. Hint (for those of you in Rio Linda): selling short is selling shares you don't own.
You are incorrect. I have an Intrade account funded with a international bank wire from my USAA account, although you can also send a check on a U.S. bank. It takes several days for an international wire, and probably 10 days for a check.
I’ve got $5,000 on Romney. It’s a zero-sum game, I either end up with zip or $13,428 on Nov. 7, or whenever the lawsuits and recounting ends. I didn’t fund my account early enough to pick up the big pre-first debate dip in Romney shares to almost $2.00, otherwise I’d be looking at a much larger upside.
I made my trade after carefully evaluating the various polls and methodologies - and gauging the Intrade “investor” base, which I characterize as mostly Obama koolaid drinkers incapable of cognitive thinking.
Don’t worry, when Romney wins the New York Slimes will return to “speaking truth to power” and being objective, and reporting on Presidential scandals etc.
You would think so. But those are not pared trades. Having the shorting option makes for more efficient markets.
But it does make you think, for sure.
Not enough, mind you, to change my assumptions about Tuesday. I still think Romney pulls off a convincing win.
Euro-leftist delusion is the best explanation IMHO for intrade odds.
2008 and 2010 — only two? I read that the University of Colorado electoral predictions are accurate since 1980 and they are leaning Romney.
Exactly. Let’s take a look at the state of the so-called free markets in the world. 1)Libor proven rig job. 2)Dow Jones Propaganda Average-rigged by the PPT. 3) Comex oil, gold and silver-rigged by large trading banks and Fed. 4) Interest market-rigged by the Fed and Treasury 5) Currency exchange rates-rigged by the world’s central banks.
So let’s look at InTrade. A small, several million dollar market perhaps. No transparency, no idea who owns, who’s buying and who’s selling. With a small several million investment it would be extremely easy to manipulate the standings. This would fit in nicely with O’s strategy of manipulating the pollsters to make it appear that his re-election is inevitable, thereby discouraging turnout and flipping those voters who like to vote for the winner.
No proof for any of this, but it is certainly feasible.
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