....the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll is wrong! It shows Obama carrying Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In reality, Romney is leading in all three states and will carry them all.
Heres the deal- The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008. True, if we get the same massive turnout among minorities and young people that propelled Obama to victory in 2008, he will win this election and carry these states.
But we wont. All the polling shows that the electorate is now much more Republican and that GOP voters are much more motivated to turn out than their Democratic counterparts.
If we weight the Times results for the average turnout of the past four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we find Romney winning all three states. Republican pollster (the best of them all) John McLaughlin and I used exit polls from the past four elections to figure out how many Democrats and Republicans actually voted and then we averaged them together:
FLORIDA NY Times results: Obama +1 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +7 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1 Times overstates Dem vote by 8 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
OHIO NY Times results: Obama +5 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Dems +2 Times overstates Dem vote by 6 points
Correct poll result: Romney +1
VIRGINIA NY Times results: Obama +2 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1 Times overstates Dem vote by 9 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
And even these results dont tell the full story... The Gallup Poll finds that the 2012 election will actually have more Republicans and fewer Democrats voting than any of the past four elections....
So the numbers above are not reflective of Romneys real strength. He will do even better. And add to them the fact that the undecided vote goes against the incumbent, and you are looking at a real landslide...