Posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:32 PM PDT by zencycler
Look at the new 7-Day average numbers Gallup now has, as of Oct 7th, showing Obama getting 50% to Romney's 45%. (Link - 7 day at Upper Right) Here's the problem:
Gallup says the 3-day average, pre-debate, was 0-50% and R-45%, and also says the average for the 3 days after the debate (Oct 4 to Oct 6) was 0-47% and R-47%.
So by my calculation, in order to get the 7-day average back to where Gallup now has it, here's what would have to happen:
Date___10/1___10/2___10/3___10/4___10/5___10/6___10/7___Avg.
Obama___50____50____50____47____47____47____59____50.0
Romney__45____45____45____47____47____47____39____45.0
There is NO WAY that the one-day polling on 10/7 suddenly could have surged to 59% for Obama and 39% for Romney, and based on Gallup's own numbers for Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, I don't see any other way for them to get to this 7-day rolling average.
Am I missing something?
You are seeing why Gallup was number 18 in accuracy in 2008.
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