Posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:15 PM PDT by smoothsailing
Edited on 09/30/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
He makes a valid point one issue for sure; not one McCain voter will vote for Hussein. Another valid point is the application of common sense, something sorely lacking in all the coverage to date..
Sounds good to me....
I can’t find a flaw in his assessment, except for the Blacks, they will vote for him come Hell or Low water.. However, I know a few OBlunder supporters, and read the liberal blogs..
I didn’t believe he could fool so many in 2008, so what do I know
I have read that a lot of black pastors are telling their congregations to stay home and not vote at all (homosexual issue).
That will work as well.
I’m not even going to hit my back button. I’m just going to go right to bed. Kind of like strawberry jam to top it off!
Bookmarked...must send to some I know who are taking the “polls” to heart.
I don’t blame them, necessarily...Bath-House Barry has waged psychological warfare on the populace from day one, with the help of terrorist Ayers, socialist Piven and “Iranian of the Day” Valerie Jarrett, may she rot in hell; but of most importance-—the media in this country needs to be protested for their complicity in the downfall (hopefully temporary) of this great country.
Take names and record addresses of those that DON’T report the news...(just so we can send sympathy cards when Bath-House Barry bites the dust...politically speaking, of course.)
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I think there was another analysis that said if Romney just picked up the 2004 Bush voters that stayed home because they didn’t like McCain in 2008 and kept the rest of the base, he would win just on the math alone.
Polls don’t matter, the liberal media doesn’t matter, because in the end it all comes down to what kind of organization you have to get out the vote.
Bush and Rove had their act together in this area, I think McCain didn’t, but I would be surprised if Romney didn’t have the operations in place, considering he is a businessman and he had really good GOTV during the primaries.
Ping sorta.
Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?
Gay, black women communists with free cell phones for 500 Alex.
Great post. And, I have just sent it into the emailsphere.
Ping
All we can do is vote and hope for the best and with a little luck Bath House Barry may get his deserved early retirement without achieving his socialistic agenda. And along with his charming wife can continue the lavish and expensive life style at taxpayers expense they have become accustomed to in Washington and live happily ever thereafter in Hawaii.
If you want to bet, go here. Safe and legal. Max of $500.
Nice analysis. I'd like to see a poll that includes this question and the responses to it.
GOTV is the drip irrigation of politics (as opposed to the sprinkling of broadcast ads that can evaporate before they hit the ground). I hope R+R have GOTV nailed down tight because in the end, this is all that will really matter.
Actually, for BJ Obama’s retirement it might be preferable for him to secure a lot on the Lake Of-Fire where he and the missus can spend the rest of their days swimming in seclusion with Saul Alinsky and their mentor, Lucifer.
Great post. I agree with this analysis completely. My own analysis of the polls includes one more thing - - the Bradley-Wilder effect. Some people will lie to pollsters and say they’re voting for Ubama rather than risk giving the pollsters the faintest idea that they might be racist by admitting they prefer the white guy.
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