There are two reasons I see to have thought this:
1) Wishful thinking, and I got pinged with lots of it here for sure
2) Media/Republicans hype over the justices critical questions on the mandate. This was coming on real strong.
So the 'conventional wisdom' was that the mandate would go. The 'wishful thinking wisdom' was that the whole bill would go.
The unpopular personal ‘mandate/fine/tax’ in the bill was so watered down it was a joke, and the theory was it would bring the whole bill down. The Federal government has been using the tax code to control us for decades, and if you dont pay your income tax you can go to jail or have property seized, unlike this joke 'mandate'.
While the Dems are celebrating and Republicans are commiserating all based on hyped ‘expectations’, we should learn exactly what was thrown out of the bill and how it affects it.
—...we should learn exactly what was thrown out of the bill and how it affects it.—
So, what WAS thrown out?
Actually SoL, if you think about it, the Commerce Clause validity was struck down. I don’t think it was unreasonable to think that it would be.
Your list of reasons should have included a number 3) It is reasonable to think the individual mandate should fail, because the claim involving the Commerce Clause could not stand SCOTUS scrutiny.
I don’t think very many reasonable people actually saw the Hail Mary “Tax Claim” to be substantive. I am astounded that Roberts bought off on it. Simply amazing...