Posted on 06/13/2012 8:05:49 AM PDT by kingattax
Democratic loyalists are beginning to panic about President Obama’s re-election prospects, according to this report in the Washington Post. The latest cause for alarm is a memo from Democracy Corps, a research group headed by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and political consultant James (“it’s the economy, stupid”) Carville. Based on their analysis of focus groups conducted in late May among swing voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Greenberg and Carville say that the current campaign message — which stresses progress made towards economic recovery — is out of touch with the daily pain voters are feeling.
The authors urge Team Obama to switch to a new narrative that focuses on what Obama will do to make a better future for the middle class. Otherwise, they say, “we will face an impossible head wind in November.”
Greenberg and Carville are not alone in feeling pessimistic. According to the Post, eight other prominent Democratic strategists interviewed share that sentiment. They also view Obama’s team as resistant to advice and assistance from those who are not part of its core.
My sense is that the “panic” of these Democrats represents a correction to the overly optimistic view most of them held earlier this year. Back in the days of when Republican candidates were beating up on Romney and Romney was struggling to connect with voters, it was easy for Dems to underestimate the task they would face in November. Now, with the Republican Party behind Romney — as it was always going to be — and the candidate hitting his stride, it is easy to panic.
The reality, I think, is that the odds of Obama winning in November are about 50 percent. Considering the stakes of the election, both sides should probably panic.
As for the notion that Obama should emphasize what he will do going forward, as opposed to what he has accomplished already, this may be naive. If voters don’t believe that Obama’s remedies have worked during the past three-and-half years, they aren’t likely to embrace claims that the new remedies he has in mind will succeed. In fairness to Greenberg and Carville, though, their focus groups reacted positively to ads that acknowledge the economic problems of the past four years and propose solutions like increasing taxes on people making more than $200,000 a year. Republicans underestimate the power of class warfare in a bad economy, I believe.
Ultimately, though, Obama’s fate is largely out of his hands. His prospects depend primarily on how the economy — especially the job market — does during the next four months or so. Secondarily, they depend on how well Romney presents himself to the public.
The White House is coming to realize that it can’t define how well the economy is doing. However, it would like to believe it can define Romney. To a considerable degree, this is wishful thinking. The public isn’t likely to take Obama’s portrayal of Romney at face value. What, after all, has Obama done to earn that level of trust?
However, the Greenberg-Carville focus groups show that Romney does have vulnerabilities. People in the focus groups tended to hold his wealth against him, believing that it makes him out of touch with their problems. And when they found out that Romney has embraced the Ryan budget, and that budget was described to them (in what manner, I don’t know), they viewed Romney less favorably than before.
So Romney has no easy task when it comes to defining, or re-defining, himself. As I said, it’s anyone’s election and both sides have plenty to worry about
Is that Democracy Corps or Democracy Corpse?
Most thinking people, however, realize that "the man" is the one who gives them "the job".
I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’
What’s going on with Carville?
He wrote a book, in which he wrote that Democrats were poised to rule for the next 40 years. Now he’s one of the ones who is panicked about this election??? How can that be???
But, is he really panicked? After all, Carville is a Clintonista. Once a Clintonista, always a Clintonista.
Are the Clintons going to shed too many tears if Obama goes down to defeat????
Reading between the lines here it sounds as if Bill Clinton and other Democrat political pros have gone to Barry and tried to tell him “You’re f***ing up! Let us show you how you win re-election!”
To which Barry has reacted in his typical arrogant fashion and dismissed them. I think they know he’s an amateur and the boat’s goin’ down.
It sure is hard for someone like Obama to rail against “the man”, when he is “the man” now.
I don’t think Obama would take advise from anyone including God. He is a *know it all* and they can never learn..
obama fate is not out of his hands:all he has to do is abandon all the false doctrines,and .....nevermind....
Variation on your theme: Polling designed to show Romney leading until the Democrat convention, then EVERY POLL in the country will miraculously put Obama ahead to stay. Momentum and all that..
No, because then the path will be made to run Hillary in 2016. Bill wants nothing more than to get back in the White House.
The focus groups were likely made up (mostly if not completely) of democrats. They're unfavorable toward republicans by nature, and their idea of economic growth is through government spending and largess. They'd naturally be against any spending plans that don't grow the government, and likely favor increased stimulus spending. Nor will they ever consider an alternative. It's just not possible.
Carville may be smelling a weak president, whose numbers are tanking. Carville may be thinking (as many of us are) that those numbers are bad enough that the Dem elites may be trying to force Obama out [shades of LBJ]. And who could possibly become the savior of the party then?
[hint: her initials are Hillary Rodham Clinton]
In 1980 Carter had less gung-ho support from the media--even though he is a Democrat, the media elite could never forgive him for being a Southern white male or for having sincere religious beliefs. John Anderson was there to siphon off liberal Democrats who were fed up with Carter.
Carter's rhetoric got pretty shrill just before the election. Of course, with Obama, the rhetoric has been shrill all the time.
“I think they know he’s an amateur and the boat’s goin’ down.”
Obama is both an amateur and a Marxist. There’s nothing new in his tired anti-capitalist playbook that he can possibly do to alter the downward spiral of the economy. The type of things he needs to do to revitalize the economy and put people back to work run up against his deep seated and misguided statist ideology. He will never unleaash the power of individual freedom which is the key to economic advancement.
There are just too many coincidences to ignore.
The civil war within the Democrat party continues...Billy is never gonna forgive the Obama campaign for playing the race care in the ‘08 Dem primary in NC. Never.
Payback is hell.
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