Posted on 03/18/2012 10:04:32 AM PDT by techno
In all likelihood Mitt Romney will manage to win the necessary 1144 delegates, pre-convention, to win the GOP presidential nomination. So what I am about to write about Rick Santorum has to be seen in this context. In no way shape or form am I hyping Santorum's chances to prevail in the end, but only trying to reflect what is now happening on the ground and how that may impact the lay of the land going forward to put some temporary roadblocks in the path of Romney winning the nomination.
Having said that Rick Santorum's odds of stopping Romney from reaching 1144 and sending the decision to a brokered convention are a little shorter today than they were a week ago.
Here are 10 reasons why I feel Santorum is more viable now and may indeed become more viable over the next two and one-half months:
1)He is NOT making as many damaging UNFORCED ERRORS as he once did. He is doing a better job in interviews on the Sunday news programs and in his campaign speeches.
2)He cannot be pegged as simply a regional candidate. He has now won in the Deep South, the Heartland, the West (Colorado), and competed well in the Rust Belt (Michigan and Ohio) and is now leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in state primary polls. In other words he has broad appeal.
3)Romney being obsessed with delegate math and inevitability lately as opposed to policy and dealing with the issues. His own supporters even have advised him to "get back on message."
4)Santorum has pounded Romney over the head with the issue of Romneycare and Obamacare on a daily basis. I think he is finally beginning to break through with the issue
5)Romney cannot win in the Deep South; that issue will linger and Santorum will be able to capitalize on that issue.
6)Romney has completely abandoned the social conservative playing field to Santorum. Being in Santorum's wheelhouse, I expect him to exploit this abdication on Romney's part fully in future primaries.
7)By virtue of several polls Romney no longer has a monopoly on electability whether it be nationwide, statewide or in swing states.
8)Newt Gingrich's supporters are defecting after his inability to win in either Mississippi or Alabama (loss of 5 points in the Gallup DTP in last 5 days-now down to 12%). Expect Santorum to benefit from this phenomenon as the primary season moves along.
9)Rick Santorum by virtue of (7 and 8) will be able to pile up more money and attract more Super PAC money and become more competitive on the ground against Romney.
10)I contend Romney's newfound conservative support (evangelicals, Tea party supporters, very conservative voters) is "soft" in that they have hopped on his bandwagon since Arizona and Michigan due to the feeling that Romney is more electable against Obama than anyone else.
Once Santorum begins to win or compete well in more contests, and with the clarity of (8)come to realize that Rick is a lot more viable than they first thought he would be and I predict if the polls continue to show Santorum competitive with Obama, a good many of these bandwagon jumpers may have second thoughts and move away from Romney and after realizing Romney does not represent their values as well as Santorum does.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
Good grief!!
Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman and Cain were far better candidates than Santorum. His status quo has nothing to do with his merits - it’s because of anti-Romney fever and the unrelenting, full-monty attacks on Newt. The reason Santorum is still hanging on is because he is so stunningly & stubbornly self-absorbed.
Amen, brother! I can’t believe more people here aren’t seeing this.
I never said it was fair.
You’re quite right it doesn’t appear fair that Santo is benefiting now from the Romney malaise when Cain, Bachmann and Perry appeared to be better candidates than Santorum.
But life isn’t fair. And neither is politics.
But the facts are undeniable that Santo is more viable now than he was a week ago. Of course we can debate how much more viable he is, given the Romney malaise and Newt’s collapse in support, but for anyone to say he is NOT more viable after his victories in Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday is either a bitter partisan or simply not reading the tea leaves.
He was my 3rd choice line in the sand candidate.
That said, I don’t buy the unelectable Santorum narrative. Its pure idiocy in a nation with Obama in the white house.
Nevertheless, simply demonstrating the ability to hang on till the bitter end is a low bar for "viability" and that, like it or not, is what Santorum is doing.
Every time he goes, or is led, off on some rabbit trail like recent explorations of the inane, he loses credibility with the general public. You knew Bachmann was done for when she stomped her feet and said "I am a serious candidate! I am, I am!" Santorum veers perilously close to that cliff on a regular basis. You're free to vote for him as you wish, but I wouldn't put money on him being around in September. We'll see.
Had santorum not ridden romney’s coattails, he would not even be a blip on the radar screen. santorum is the unintended consequence of romney’s unrelenting attacks on Gingrich. He is a viable loser. romney and/or santorum cannot win a national election.
MM:
I don’t disagree with you. The law of unintended consequences—exactly.
Face it, that isn’t asking for much, i.e. he (Santorum) can’t be LESS viable than he appears to bre....
Although the Chicago Tribune has endorsed Mitt Romney in the primary on Tuesday, here is a story that leans more towards Rick Santorum:
RELIGION A KEY ISSUE AS ILLINOIS REPUBLICANS GO TO POLLS
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-religion-illinois-primary-20120318,0,4001310.story
“In all likelihood Mitt Romney will manage to win the necessary 1144 delegates”
Don’t buy into the Karl Rove hype.
Not gonna happen. Santorum is running an excellent campaign. People are waking up. He is doing a great job of fighting back against fallicy that the Inevitable One..is.
Math is math. Romney only has to pick up 48% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. He has the benefit of winner-take-all states in several states in the NE. And he has the advantage now in both NY and CA. Objectively you got to give him a decided edge.
Yes, he could come up 50 delegates short but that won’t be enough to hold him back. Imho he would have to capture no more than in the 45%-46% range of all the delegates awarded to deny him a first ballot nomination at the convention. In other words he would have to have have no more than 1044 votes to his credit and be at least 100 delegates short of clinching.
One reason why is is NOT viable at all: No one is voting for minister, priest or pope.
Seriously? Unintended consequences of Gingrich who lost every major demographic in FL, failed to get to the 50% mark in his own home state of GA after massive ad buys and campaigning, lost badly in his own backyard, his “southern strategy” is up in flames, his big ideas like “permanent moon based colonies in eight years” is something we don’t hear anymore except as the stuff of SNL Unintended consequences of what? Santorum’s appeal is to blue-collar voters, Reagan Democrats, and is quite capable of turning in a few rust-belt state into the red state column.
Have you even read your posting history PF?
Rick is just a man man, lighten up.
The carpet-bombing of Gingrich in Florida allowed Santorum to emerge by coming up the middle.
I don’t think even folks at Team Gingrich, Team Romney or even Team Santorum would deny that.
Just know that Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and even Glenn Beck like Rick over the others so don't pay much mind to the FR Newt Gingrich peanut gallery—they are closet Mittbotts anyway.
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