Last South Carolina Primary Simulation shows 14,000 vote win for Gingrich

Google Docs ^ | 01-20-2012 | parksstp

[parksstp]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldE1wQUVXd3lSLXh2anZvYzJ2NzhpbWc

This is the final simulation that will be run prior to tomorrow's primary. It takes into account Perry's departure/endorsement and last night's debate.

Prior to Monday, I ran an earlier simulation that showed the following results:

ROMNEY, MITT 158,671 32.08%

GINGRICH, NEWT 127,320 25.74%

SANTORUM, RICK 107,722 21.78%

PAUL, RON 65,968 13.34%

PERRY, RICK 23,324 4.72%

HUNTSMAN, JON 11,607 2.35%

As of last night, I have updated the projection data to reflect the following:

Santorum (60% 08 Huck Vote, 10% Fred Vote, Duncan Hunter total) Gingrich (40% 08 Huck Vote, 90% Fred Vote, 40% McCain) Romney (08 Vote Total, 60% McCain, 50% Rudy) Paul (08 Vote Total, 50% Rudy, The majority of the increase in voters in a particular county)

Based on these assumptions, the simulation produced the following results:

GINGRICH, NEWT 175,040 35.36%

ROMNEY, MITT 161,191 32.56%

SANTORUM, RICK 87,483 17.67%

PAUL, RON 71,354 14.41%

More detailed information is available in the Google Document link above along with county by county breakdown, though I will post all the counties info here for people not wanting to go to the link for virus concerns, etc.

As for turnout, I am still weary that I have overprojected with 495,000 voters. However, at least some Political Scientists in Rock Hill agree with me on about a 500,000 turnout that was written this morning

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-20/south-carolina-primary-historically-is-must-win-for-nomination.html

For those that think Santorum is too high, keep in mind that 60% is around what he got on the second ballot of the Evangelical vote prior to all the controversey that erupted. I think he'll get near that again, and it appears it will be okay and won't result in a splitting vote allowing Romney to win.

As for Paul, who knows. Because I am guesstimating on turnout, his numbers may be the most off.

However, this is the model I stand by for the primary results when they come out tomorrow. Depending on how things go, I might do one for FL.

[CainConservative]

“I’d say Newt, then Mitt by a 10 point spread 46/36 - . Santorum and Paul now in single digits - 9/9”

That would be perfect insuring Santorum dropping out!

Or I might go with..

Newt 40 (McLame had 33)
Willard 29 (Huck had 30)
Paul 15 (Fred had 15)
Santorum 9 (’08 Mitt had 14)

[parksstp]

Santorum is going to get a share of that Evangelical vote, which will probably be around 60% of the 08 Huckabee vote. When I started working on the final simulation last night, I originally was going to follow a 60-40 split for Newt, but as soon as I applied it to the major counties statewide, Newt was getting too much, like over 45 and closer to 50%. He was coming within 50 votes of winning Charleston and 125 of Beaufort. If that happened, the Romney people would not have even been in SC today, they would have packed up, conceeded, and moved to FL.

Also, Women in SC make up about 48-49% of the primary. More Women voted for Huckabee and McCain last time than Men, getting 33% and 34% respectively. To give Newt a majority of the Evangelical vote would mean giving him a near plurality of the Female vote in SC, something which is very unlikely to occur at this current time.

Even as my model stands now, I have my doubts about Lexington County. This is considered a favorable area to Romney that has Gingrich barely winning, but still, a win here is a big thing.

[C. Edmund Wright]

The work you did on that was astounding, but there is a new dynamic this time that I don’t think your modeling accounts for (though I may be wrong).

That is another 10-12% of raw vote total. (445K last time, maybe 500 K this time).

This will come from intensity - folks who were not there last time, and I think they will be Paul supporters or recent Newt converts.

[NickFlooding]

WOW! Could it be that Romney is about to experience Newtlear annihilation?

[llandres]

I think they’re catering to RP because they so fear he’ll go third party if he feels “dissed”.

The old SOB is holding our fate hostage with his ego, and his crazed fan-atics will probably write him in, sit it out or vote BHO anyway.

[llandres]

A poll on O’Reilly’s website was obvious loaded up by RuPaul-bots predicting 60% for him to win in SC.

Idiots.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I agree that there’s a good shot at breaking the 500,000 mark for turnout.

I’d like to see something for Maine. Turnout was 5600 in 2008. Unbelievably low. Is 10,000 more likely? Population is 45% of IA. And Lower GOPer %. Many counties hold caucuses at 1 central location Unlike IA. So people must travel 30 or 40 minutes ... that and weather and lower publicity could explain the 5600 figure.