Posted on 12/26/2011 1:35:57 AM PST by DJ Elliott
This is an update to last year’s article. The major changes are the elimination of the previously planned new IA divisions, the start of mechanizing of 2 IA divisions, the addition of another corps-level Joint Operational Command, further indications of additional planned mechanized/armor upgrades, and indications of planned wartime redeployments.
Forward defense is Iraq’s only real option. Too many key areas are close to the Iranian border. However, Iraq does not have the force to successfully defend Iraq against a conventional invasion. The ISF is trained and equipped for internal security – not external. Iraq is fair game to any and all of its neighbors with the USF-I withdraw. Any neighbor invading could occupy Iraq in less than 2 weeks at this point.
(Excerpt) Read more at home.comcast.net ...
I think I speak for all of Iraq when I say: “bring it on”.
I doubt that. IMoD and IMoI both know that while they have the personnel numbers - they do not have the needed equipment in sufficient numbers.
2012 was a political date ignoring the military...
Nonsense. Iraq is ready to face any threat.
No air defense whatsoever - not even MANPADS.
Only the start of artillery in 3 of the divisions.
Only tanks in 1 Division.
With a 1,000km border with Iran.
Iran has 48 divisions including 7 Mech/armor and they have air defense and artillery.
Plus over 200 combat aircraft.
2 weeks is an optomistic estimate as to how long Iraq could hold if the Persians decide to regain their Mesopotainian provinces...
E.G. The smallest country bordering Iraq is Kuwait.
Kuwait has a reinforced mechanized division for an army.
Kuwait out-numbers Iraq in Tanks, Artillery, ATGW, Air, Air Defense, Navy - in all categories except infantry, infantry weapons, and trucks.
Iran outnumbers Iraq in all categories.
Turkey outnumbers Iraq in all categories.
Syria outnumbers Iraq in all categories.
Jordan outnumbers Iraq in all categories except infantry.
Saudi outnumbers Iraq in all categories except infantry.
Iraq is in a dangerious area, their own military plans did not envision strategic independence until after 2020.
2012 was pure politics - ignoring military realities...
We outnumbered Iraq in pretty much every aspect too yet here we are and there we aren’t. The Iraqi fighters left in Iraq are all hard core combat veterans with the lessons of war fresh in their minds which means each of them is worth 3 or more regular soldiers. I think they could handle any single country that attempted to place boots on their soil.
I guess Iraq assumes we will provide our typical massive air power to blunt the entry of any massed columns - unless of course Obama is away on vacation at the time....
1. Unlike the US, Iran don’t give a shit about casualties. We lost less than 4500 in 9 years. In 1986, Iran lost 50,000 KIA in 3 months.
2. Iraq is not battle hardened - what they have been involved in is called LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT. LIC doesn’t win if your enemy is willing to stay the course. By the way, the Iraqi death rate to all causes never exceeded the murder rate in Venesuala or the per capa murder rate of any major US city.
3. We invaded Iraq with 5 divisions vs Iraq’s 23. At no time did the US have ground forces larger than Iraq. The Iraqi Army decided not to fight in 2003.
4. Our departure was pure political. We never had a casualty rate high enough to make the top 10 list of what kills US military. Vietnam was 10x the annual KIAs. Korea was 30x. WWII was 100x. We lost more KIA in the last 9 hours of WWI [after the armistice was signed] than in the 9 YEARS in Iraq.
5. Iraq is dead meat if any of its neighbors invade. The ME politicians don’t have anti-war protestors to appease and do not have to worry about an anti-war vote...
Iraq has no defense treaty. No allies. No Treaties.
They are dead meat if any of their neighbors decide to invade...
Lets give you another number. The KIA rate in Syria already exceeds the total US KIA in the 9 years of Iraq.
Syria only has 2/3rds the population of Iraq.
We didn’t lose in Iraq. We got bored with Iraq...
“Only tanks in 1 Division.”
The US recently tried to give 400 tanks in Iraq to Greece as a gift. All Greece had to do was pay the 8-9 million to transport them to Greece from Iraq. I gather that didn’t happen. I suspect we abandoned them. The plan during Bush’s administration was to give them to Iraq. But that apparently changed with the Greek offer.
The tanks were maintained by employees of the mostly secret GD World Services company. You probably won’t find GDWS anywhere on the internet. I know as a former employee that GDWS recruits only within the larger GD labor pool and the military; by invitation. When I looked at their GD Land Systems’ (the cover company’s) website it appeared that every tech position was open in Iraq; meaning the word was out to leave the country before the US military left.
If the US left the 400 or so mostly working tanks then we can expect that the Iraqis will take them. But I’d imagine working them up into a fighting unit and keeping them running without massive US aid will be impossible in the short run.
I understand the spares pipeline was full up until December of 2010. Whether the US consumed those spares or left them or moved them out of country, I don’t know. But the US stopped buying spares for the Abrams sometime in mid-2010 in order to buy the armored trucks the Army needed for the short range fighting in Afghanistan. Not having any spare parts and planning to shut the tank’s production line may have factored in if the Army abandoned the tanks rather than recover them.
Wrong. The 400 tanks offered to Greece were in the US.
We don’t have 400 tanks in Iraq - not since the original 2003 invasion. Also, domestic design tanks cannot be provided to Iraq because they have DU armor layer - so they would not be given to Iraq. [Greece, as a NATO member, is not so restricted.]
The EDA offer to Greece was to accelerate replacing the HA’s 1,067 M48/M60 Patton tanks. 350 of which Iraq has an option to buy. Those 350 Hellenic Army M60A3s are in storage in Greece ATT. Under the CFE treaty, the HA has to dispose of them as excess to treaty limits.
Those 350 M60A3s would double the IA’s tank count...
“Wrong. The 400 tanks offered to Greece were in the US.”
Thank you for the correction. Shame on me for getting my information from the MSM.
Why do you think I started writing on the ISF?
MSM is the least reliable source.
They haven’t a clue about the military.
As I mentioned, there is an Iraq connection.
The M1A1s would replace HA Pattons,
Those HA Pattons would become IA Pattons.
The only costs to Greece and Iraq would be transport.
M1A1s from US to Greece and M60A3s from Greece to Iraq.
I suspect these M60A3s are the missing tanks for the mechanizing 5th and 7th IA Divisions.
5 Tank Rgts [Bns] of 35 Tanks each per mech div...
9 years, 1 trillion dollars, 4,500 KIA, 30,000 WIA, and NOTHING to show for it except a wrecked economy and Barack Hussein Obama. To quote one Douglas A. MacArthur: "in war, there is no substitute for victory". Where is our victory DJ? We didn't get bored, we lost.
Yeah, Iraq beat Iran too.
Iraq is not battle hardened - what they have been involved in is called LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT
Iraq is not LIC. Bosnia is the LIC. Iraq was the real deal and the Iraqi vets left walking and breathing are indeed hardened combat vets that are each worth 5 or more non-hardened combat vets.
3. We invaded Iraq with 5 divisions vs Iraq’s 23. At no time did the US have ground forces larger than Iraq. The Iraqi Army decided not to fight in 2003.
5 divisions worth of the most advanced military on earth plus the most advanced navy and air force on the planet. We still walked away without any meaningful victory. They sent us packing.
4. Our departure was pure political.
once we established that there were no WMDs and once we killed Saddam Hussein, we should have left. It was politics that kept us there beyond that in the first place so of course our withdrawal was political though not purely as you have suggested, not by a long shot. The fact is, it was way past time to leave. It's a shame Bush can't take credit for it.
5. Iraq is dead meat if any of its neighbors invade. The ME politicians don’t have anti-war protestors to appease and do not have to worry about an anti-war vote...They sent what was supposed to be the most advanced military on earth packing without victory. I think they can handle their neighbors.
Nonsense, Iraq has already kicked Iran's butt once and they can do it again.
1. Strategic stalmate. Neither side gained anything after over 1 million casualties and 8 years. That was High Intensity Warfare. From June 2003 on it was LIC. Hostile actions were never larger than Bn strength. By the way, most of Vietnam is defined as LIC by professionals.
2. We made a political deal to leave. Iraq didn’t send us packing - our wimpy politicians did.
3. UN disagreed. 2010 was the official end of the UN mandate. Your option would have guaranteed Iranian ownership of Iraq.
4. Iraq broke even with Iran after 8 years of war despite receiving over 5,000 tanks, 3,000 howitzers, 1,000 jets, etc from the Soviet Union. After IRGC/Hezbollah kidnaped/killed 4 Soviet embassy personnel in early 1984, the Soviets cut off Iran and gave Iraq an open line of credit. They even took tanks from active Soviet Divisions and sent them direct to Iraq...
Without the tools, Iraq can’t win. No matter how good you are - you don’t win without the weapons needed. Sending Lancers against Panzers is just a good way to waste good troops...
We didn’t lose, we left.
For the last 3 years our total losses have been fewer than what we lose to motorcycle accidents in the USMC.
We didn’t lose, our politicians wimped out...
There are 4 things that Iraq requires to field a credible defense, when they have these, then they will be ready:
1. Air Defense - they have nothing now. 5 Fighter Squadrons minimum. About 96 F16s according to IMoD.
2. Field Artillery - They only have 3 divisions equipped with howitzers ATT. Less than 200 howitzers. They need about 2,000.
3. ATGW. The only ATGWs they have now are 20 BTR4s equipped with Barrier. Every Battalion requires a legit anti-tank capability - otherwise they are just grease for tank treads. IA/FP/DBE Bns total over 300 - which means over 3,000 launchers including a reserve.
4. Support. A functional logistics/maintenance system including ammo supplies. Right now they have Level 2 and 4 logistics [Div and Army] - they are still forming Level 1 and 3 [Bde and Corps] and proper stocks of ammo/spares/etc.
The ISF is up to internal security - not full-scale warfare. They just don’t have the tools.
The related articles listed at the bottom of this update spell out the details.
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