THE COMING WAVE (An Interview With Mother Abigail)

Page #28

Q: You said that you "understand that bugs have no drive and no destiny, but this deadly bit of RNA frightens me." Why is that?

MA: Because it is so different and it is so extremely targeted.

Most of science involves making accurate observations and correctly interpreting the data.

Well when you objectively look at HIV you see a very odd critter. In the quarter-decade that we have been fighting this virus there is only one impression that any serious researcher can reach:

And that is that HIV is swiftly evolving to avoid the body's immune defenses - in fact it is rapidly changing to compensate for even small human variations.

Take the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes. These proteins act as a signaler against intruders. The proteins present little pieces of HIV to the body's T cells, which then seek out the virus and kill it.

However there are variants of HLA genes that are far better at combating HIV than others. And when we see a population where there is a favorable variant of HLA such as HLA-B*51 then we see the virus quickly mutate to a state that can resist the HLA-B*51.

In Japan over 2/3rds of the infected population has the resistant HIV variant because the population pool has a large percentage of HLA-B*51 carriers. But in other parts of the world where the HLA variation is not present or is different – then it is a different virus variation that dominates the infected populace.

In other words this little critter keeps shifting very rapidly to make certain that it continues with it’s grim job of killing humans – of all races, of all regions and of all beliefs.

This is evolution at "warp speed" and it is not pretty.

MA: There is no dispute about this bug. It targets humans with a devastating attack on the immune system, specifically helper T cells.

After it has decimated the helper T cells, the immune system cannot signal B cells to produce antibodies or Cytotoxic T cells to kill infected cells.

Also after depleting the Helper T cell population, the body can no longer launch a specific immune response and becomes susceptible to just about everything.

Our memory T cells are rapidly infected and destroyed in the mucus membranes of our tissues during the first several days after HIV infection. And they are largely never restored.

This sad list just goes on and on...

It is hunting us and it is winning. Twenty five million people are dead, another 33 million are infected. If this were a highly infectious disease then these numbers would be very different.

Knowing that, we can never assume that this fast-mutating bug will not become more virulent. Also we might, as good practitioners, ask if there are any known factors that influence HIV virulence.

Q: I assume that there are.

Page #29

MA: Yes, there are. And the most prominent mitigating factor is the reason that the current novel H1N1 Influenza outbreak worries me so.

We have spent an incredibly long time discussing the enzyme Neuraminidase over the course of this winter and I would like to take that knowledge base of yours and apply it to our current situation.

Q: Good to go.

MA: This discussion is actually less complicated than the original explanation of how Influenza replicates.

Because you already understand how Neuraminidase functions as a cleaving agent in H1N1 you will clearly be able to "see" how Neuraminidase influences sialylation and that alteration, in turn, modulates the process of HIV infection.

Because of the saturation of the species with H1N1 and the mass inoculation with H1N1 vaccine - not to mention the millions of challenges to the virus with Neuraminidase inhibitors, I would like to review with you a few potential problems.

Page #30

MA: In the coming winter some portion of the 33 million souls who carry the HIV pathogen will be challenged with:

1. Influenza vaccine or
2. Neuraminidase Inhibitors after being infected with H1N1 or
3. Neuraminidase Inhibitors prophylactically or
4. H1N1 infection
5. Or any combination thereof

This is what we know as fact:

1. Over 100,000,000,000,000,000 human immunodeficiency virus genomes are produced daily on the entire planet. As a consequence, thousands of viral mutants arise by chance every day.

2. The HIV-1 genome, which is about 10,000 nucleotides long, can exist as 10 to the 6,020th power different sequences. To put this number in perspective, there are 10 to the 11th power stars in the Milky Way galaxy and 10 to the 80th power protons in the universe.

3. The enormous variability of HIV is an effective mechanism for evading neutralizing antibody. The sequence variation in one isolate from a single HIV-infected individual sampled a few years after infection is greater than the global variation of an influenza epidemic strain during a flu season .

Q: Well it certainly is a fast changing agent.

MA: It is much more than that. We have known since 1996 that you can enhance infectivity in HIV by neuraminidase treatment. This effect is due to increased binding capacity of the treated virus to the target cells.

But, more importantly, we have known since 2002 thanks to the work of Jiangfeng Sun et al. that virion-associated flu NA has an enhancing effect on HIV-1-mediated syncytium formation and cell-free virus infection.

In the laboratory they showed that treating cells with flu-derived NAs remarkably augmented the initial cell-cell interaction and promoted HIV-1-mediated cytopathic effect (i.e. syncytium formation). And that the desialylation of target cells increased susceptibility of target cells to infection with cell-free HIV-1 particles

I understand that this is very technical, but the short version is that when you subject HIV to neuraminidase you can enhance its syncytium formation and replication.

This is not something you wish to do with a highly mutagenic agent like HIV.

Q: OK, so if we treat HIV with neuraminidase we increase its infectivity. I have that. But what happens when you treat an HIV + person with neuraminidase inhibitors such as Tamiflu.

MA: Yes that is the question is it not? In fairness you can say that we have not seen any huge changes in the virus by Tamiflu treatment - thus far.

However Dr. Chueh Huang is doing ground-breaking work that shows that NA inhibitors could enhance the frequency with which two viruses infect the same cell. This is called "superinfection". When two viruses infect the same cell the oportunity for viral reassortment increases. Thus the enzymatic activity of NA is essential for superinfection exclusion - and to go messing around with this natural roadblock to superinfection and reassortment is playing with fire.

In my personal opinion, we do not have enough information to treat HIV with any agent that targets neuraminidase.

Page #32
January 22, 2010
Carson City, Nevada

The snow has let up and there is blue sky lighting up a winter wonderland little town. I spent a very long time visiting with Mother Abigail yesterday and here is a summary of my notes.

When I arrived at MA’s home it was lightly snowing and her home could have been out of a movie set, just beautiful and very cozy. MA seemed glad to see me - which put me a bit at ease. My nerves sometimes get a little edgy when I have to interview her. MA is both sweet and accommodating but there is something about her bearing that makes me think of a visit to the principal’s office.

While I made myself comfortable in her den, MA made us tea with cinnamon sticks. The fire was warm and the view out to her backyard was enough to make me feel a bit domestic. Sometimes I wonder what it would be like to not have lived the “cowboy” lifestyle - but the feeling always passes when I get on the road.

When MA arrived with the tea set I noticed that her hands are getting a lot worse. She has arthritis in both hands and often her friends help her with things that she cannot do - like open bottle caps.

The fingers next to her thumbs seem to be quite a bit dislocated now with a lot of swelling. It concerned me so I asked about her health.

Q: MA your hands look a bit worse are they bothering you?

MA: They look a lot worse than they feel. It is the dexterity that is such a pill, I have had to get a variety of gadgets to help with activities that once I could easily do with my hands.

Q: Are you on meds?

MA: Oh of course, I now have a monthly infusion and I give myself a shot once a week as well. Not to mention all the pills that I use for maintenance.

Q: How do you manage in such a big house alone?

MA: I have a housekeeper who has been on my staff for twenty years and is an angel for me. Also, with my family living in Reno, I am never without help when I need it.

Q: MA I did’nt, in any way, want to pry into your private life - I was just concerned.

MA: Of course child, I knew that.

Q: MA do you have a cell phone for emergencies?

MA: Well I carry a Blackberry for odds and ends and I never leave home without it in my purse.

Q: Good, I thought you must.

Q: When I write my next piece, should I leave out this discussion about your arthritis?

MA: (Laughing) No, I have very little vanity left at this late stage of the game. You continue to write everything as truthfully as you can.

Q: Thank you.

Page #33

Q: I have read a lot over the winter and would like to ask a few questions about H1N1 and HIV, would you mind?

MA: I hoped that you would.

Q: Wolfgang Wodarg, head of health at the Council of Europe, has charged that the pandemic of H1N1 was overstated in order to allow the pharmaceutical companies to cash in. He has also called for an inquiry into the pandemic - claiming it is "one of the great medicine scandals of the century"

India has asked the World Health Organization to explain reports that the pandemic status given to swine flu was a "false" one.

Poland, the only country to reject the H1N1 vaccine, stated that "We will not take part because it's not honest and it's not safe for the patient." This was from Prime Minister Donald Tusk who now stands by his decision.

What is your opinion of the validity of these claims? Do you think that the situation was overstated on purpose, or that financial motive was a factor in the elevation of this new virus to such an emergency level?

MA: I am not sure if you remember, but in June Dr. Chan was under withering criticisim to quicken the pace of the authorities in responding to this crisis.

On June 11th, 2009 she raised the alert level to "6" - our highest level. At that time many people were saying that we were dragging our feet and loosing all credibility.

In particular, I remember Dr. Michael Osterholm, who is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, saying that we had abandoned science and were failing to declare a level "6" because of political motives.

It was a mixed bag. But looking back at the first months of the outbreak I am forced to ask what were our choices? If we failed to respond in a robust and unified manor then not only our moral credibility but our future decisions were in grave peril. The phrase "better safe than sorry" comes to mind.

I would rather have a huge stockpile of vaccine that we did not use than to have a true medical emergency without sufficient supplies to treat the public.

We are not Gods - there are no hard and fast rules about predicting the outcome of new pathogens. We try to be as proactive as possible (when given time) but much of medicine is reactive - and in truth we often are wrong in our decisions.

But to impute the motives of these fine people is scurrilous. I have spent a long lifetime in the company of people who are forced to make decisions about health on a very large scale - and our public health professionals are, by and large, ethical and caring individuals

Q: But MA from the start you stated that this was probably a moderate outbreak.

MA: Yes, and so did many others. But we are not carrying the heavy responsibility for the vast complexities that must be mobilized to meet a pending pandemic.

When the buck stops on your desk, you do not have the luxury of taking the middle ground. When there is even a potential for disaster, the CDC and WHO must always prepare for the "worst case" scenario. It is their duty.

Page #34

Q: What about your reservations on mass vaccination and the use of neuraminidase inhibitors?

MA: That is a different issue. I am strongly opposed to the use of neuraminidase inhibitors on any individual who has a disorder of the immune system (HIV, Rheumatoid arthritis etc.) We do not have enough information on the contraindications of this reaction to safely prescribe this regimen.

As to mass vaccination - when you have new vaccines it is wise to be cautious. The more controlled and disciplined we can be in their administration, the more confident we can be in their safety and efficacy.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(This was the only time I was to visit MA prior to her developing pneumonia and getting very sick.

Winter came and went, MA got well and although she did not open the Tahoe “cabin” this summer, her health is good and I am anxious to complete this work.)

Page #35
October 13, 2010
Carson City, Nevada

It was nice to drive up to MA’s house again, the leaves are just starting to turn and this old historic neighborhood is something out of a movie set. It is the perfect home for Mother Abigail.

Her housekeeper was there to let me in and lead me to the library. It is still a wonderful and comfortable venue to sit in the afternoon and talk about the world. And when you discuss the world with MA you need to make certain you had a good breakfast, studied hard and listen closely.

MA came in looking very well and none the worse for wear, and that is a great relief to me.

MA: It is good to see you again.

Q: And equally good to see you MA. Are you feeling well?

MA: Fit as a fiddle.

Q: That's excellent. The last time I saw you was in the hospital and as we discussed on the phone - it was a bit scary.

MA: A bit frightening for me as well. Would you like tea or a cocktail?

Q: No MA I'm good.

MA: It is still too warm for a fire but one of the mornings soon it will be winter. I miss not going to the lake this summer but my Cardiologist reccomended I relax this year.

Q: The cabin will still be there next year.

Q: The first thing I would like to say is congratulations on uncovering the host of the Ebola Virus. Your post from April of 2004 is, I believe, the earliest identification of Rousettus aegyptiacus that I have found. You were not doing field work then, how did you arrive at that conclusion?

MA: Well, you are way to generous with your praise there were others, I assure you, who were looking at this species as a host reservoir as well. As to how - it just seemed the right fit for all the epidemiological clues that were available. Dr.Pourrut and his team have been working on this problem since 2003 and their work will probably stand as the definitive study unless we get further data.

Q: Perhaps they should have written about it sooner then. For as the facts stand (and I am always open to correction) your post about fruit bats as the natural reservoir predates their publication by five full years. And in 2007 you stated:

“R. aegyptiacus - Carries both antibodies and viral RNA fragments - strongly suggesting that this bat species is the natural reservoir.”

That is pretty definitive...

MA: It was my firm belief that the overlapping of the primates and fruit bats during the late season had to be the common transmission point.

Q: Bravo to you - it was early an early and correct diagnosis.

Page #36

Q: MA I know that you don't like to talk about the SARS threads, but I have so many emails since I wrote the original article several years ago that I feel obligated to try and relay a few of those questions to you. Would you mind?

MA: Oh, I suppose not.

Q: Mostly people want to know about your original post “Precognition” where you originally alerted the Internet about the unexplained pneumonia cases in China.

Why did you choose to use Free Republic as the vehicle to post that thread?

MA: Well it is not as complicated as it may seem. I do not have a computer and use WebTv on my TV to read the Internet. And Free Republic is one of the few sites that is workable on WebTv. Most of the others have too much junk and are really not compatible.

Q: And you chose to post on SARS because?

MA: Fear son. It is hard to imagine how little we knew and how exponentially this threat grew in the first few days. I doubt anyone realizes just how mobilized and cooperative the scientific community was during that first week. I felt everyone needed to know what was transpiring in real time. And for an epidemiologist this was one very bad bug with a ticket to ride right into our West Coast.

Q: Interesting. Were you really frightened?

MA: Very much so.

Q: MA thank you for that, I must have had a hundred people looking for that answer.

Q: There is one more question that seems to be a constant among your fans, and that is what do you mean by precognition?

Q: Do you mean like seeing the future?

MA: Yes

Q: Why would you choose to title a thread on microbiology “Precognition”?

MA: Do you believe that thread is about microbiology?

Q: Mostly

MA: It is not.

(As we sat in MA’s library and stared out at the beautiful cottonwood trees lining the street, I pondered her response. It was a very odd thread - mixed with religion, science and pop culture - but it had no theme that I had ever discovered.)

Q: Ok, well what is the thread really about then?

MA: Why don’t you study it a bit and give me an answer on our next visit. How does that sound?

Q: Fine by me.

Page #37

Q: MA the first question I feel needs to be addressed is your warning last year that vaccinating individuals with any immunocompromised condition was unwise. Do you still stand by that premise?

MA: Very much so.

Q: Is there any evidence, after all nearly a year has passed, that your fears are warranted?

MA: Well, thanks to the work of Susanne Brakemeier of Germany we now know that the H1N1 vaccine Pandemrix is ineffective in helping protect most renal transplant patients.

Ms. Brakemeier also advocated the need to test the safety of new vaccines in transplant patients. Which is what I have urged from the get-go.

Q: I do remember, even with my poor retention rate, a lot of the lessons you taught me on neuraminidase and the flu.

MA: Of course you do, knowledge once acquired is hard to put back in the bottle.

Q: What of your worst fears? You were highly agitated about giving H1N1 vaccines to HIV patients?

MA: And I still am. It is a foolish experiment. And, mark my words, it is an experiment.

The potential for adverse, even dramatically negative, outcomes in this stupid risk are enormous.

The long term effects are just beginning to emerge. Dr. Brophy, of the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, has shown that less than 70% of children with HIV achieved seroprotection from the H1N1 vaccine Arepanrix.

This result even fails to meet the European Union standards for human use.

It is folly. And I have urged them to stop.

Q: MA I would like to thank you for taking the time to visit with me today and for all the effort you have put into educating those of us with just a limited knowledge of Virology.

MA: It is certainly my pleasure. And you are welcome to come by here or the cabin anytime you choose, it is always a joy to see you.

Q: You are very kind MA, it is good to see you well and I am certain that I speak for all your fans when I say to stay healthy this winter and please write some more on the Internet.

MA: I will try child, it seems that your priorities shift substantially when one gets older, but I will try.

Q: Well if it is OK with you I would like to visit one more time before going back home. There are a few heavy topics we need to explore before I can say our conversations have been carried to fullness.

MA: Why don't you come back for Thanksgiving, and we can spend the afternoon on any subject you choose?

Q: That sounds terrific. I would enjoy that immensely.

Page #38

November 24th, 2010
Reno Nevada
J A Nugget
Orozko Lounge

The shrimp cocktail, the venison and two Absolute Martinis (one olive) have put me right into the zone. Carrie (my very favorite waitress) has turned me on to a late afternoon buffet here tomorrow. It will be perfect for me on a very busy day.

Kate and I will be serving free meals to all who come tomorrow at the Carson Nugget. They have been doing this for decades and they are kind enough to allow others to help serve. It is a blessing on every level.

There is a solo artist performing tonight with guitar and violin. There is only myself and another couple for an audience but his music is remarkable none the less. I feel peaceful and in harmony tonight. Tomorrow afternoon I will spend Thanksgiving with Mother Abigail and I will ask the hard questions that have been ignored for the last few years.

But it is OK. When the last post of this series is posted, I will remain - and my life (which has forever been altered by this project) will be rich and delightful. What a strange impact MA has had on my life. How empty and shallow my future lay prior to that trip to Lake Tahoe.

One more Bailey’s coffee and I will go upstairs and hit the hot tub, work on my crossword and prepare for tomorrow.

Why I feel like an athlete prior to a big game - I do not know, but I do love the rush.

November 25th, 2010
Carson City, Nevada

I picked up Kate at 10:30 AM this morning and we went to the Nugget to help serve. We were signed up for the 11:00 to 12:00 shift on the serving line.

We were assigned to the rolls and butter detail. Which was perfect. What a joy to see so many people, of all persuasions, enjoying the generosity of the Carson Nugget. We developed a routine (being the first on the line) where I grabbed a plate and turned right where Kate loaded the goodies. I then turned and welcomed the guest and gave them their plate. Amazing how many people were in line and how fast we were able to serve them.

But best of all, right in the middle of the rush, Kate turned to me (all smiles) and said “what a good team we make”.

Having woke up the other morning with very similar thoughts, I just smiled back.

It is hard to become too attached. The scars from our last failed attempt at the “relationship thing” are still much on my mind. It hurt. But this time seems different somehow. Neither one of us are drinking quite as much and we seem a little less stressed in our lives.

But, none the less, it seems prudent to just enjoy the moments. On the way out of the Casino she was just beaming and really happy when she hugged me from behind and said “I love you”. That is as much emotion as I have ever seen from her. Her demeanor is very self controlled and in all things - professional.

All this is said simply to give you an idea that by the time I arrived at MA's - I was in a very good mood.

Page #39

November 25th, 2010
Carson City, Nevada

I arrived at MAs in the early afternoon after dropping off Kate at her home. It is brutally cold but there is no new snow. I have a ton of mixed feelings about today. First it is good to share the day with MA and I have grown to love our time in her study. But also, I am a little reluctant to breech the subjects we have, thus far, downplayed.

I brought a gorgeous pecan pie as a gift along with a bottle of Frangelico (sort of traditional with us). MA was sitting in the study as usual while her housekeeper finished the meal.

MA: It is so good to see you, thanks for coming.

Q: Would not have missed it for the world MA.

MA: Would you care for a cocktail or coffee?

Q: I would love a Crown on the rocks if you have it. Or any whiskey would be fine.

MA: Crown it is then.

Q: She left to go in the kitchen and fix our drinks, MA almost always has Frangelico and tea, as I settled into the big chair by the fire.

While it is the cowboy lifestyle that has most defined my life and career - there will always be a deep appreciation for the rock solid life of others. Here in this womb of warmth and comfort, a man such as myself cannot help but wonder how it might have been.

A different decision here, a little more patience there - could I have ever ended up like this wonderful lady? Sitting in a family homestead, content with my lives’s work and reading in the afternoon before the fire.

Nice thoughts on a Thanksgiving day - and without a lot of recrimination. It is what it is. I have long ago found peace with my choices - but it is nice to daydream now and then.

MA: What a great day for a big fire.

Q: I was just thinking the same thing MA.

MA and I had a little small talk before the meal but it was just casual. We ate in the dining room with the drapes all open and the back yard looking like a Hollywood set.

My mind tended to wander a bit as we ate, I love good food as much as anyone but there was an element of surrealism to the entire event. In a week or so I would be back in California, either writing on some of the “real” jobs that I have waiting or just decompressing after such a long and involved work.

Also for the last few days I have been trying to decide how far to push MA on her views. I most certainly do not wish to be rude, but I have promised too many people that I will explore (on a deeper level) her concept of the “Coming Wave”.

Because of the huge backlash from my last attempt to discuss the issue - I have simply avoided the hard questions. That will not be an option today.

Page #40

Q: Back in MA’s study we added another log to her fireplace and relaxed completely.

Q: MA you know that I am concluding my story about you with this interview, don't you?

MA: Yes of course.

Q: You offered me the opportunity to ask any questions the last time we met, is that offer still good?

MA: Yes

Q: Because we have become such friends I want you to know that if you elect to duck any of these questions it will be fine by me. It is not a matter of national security - it is just that my readers have been very specific about what they would like to know. Good by you?

MA: I have never been shy.

Q: Well MA I am not certain.

As we sat eating brownies and sipping egg nog - the evening was getting late.

MA: Did you read Precognition like I asked?

Q: Yes I read it several times and I must say MA that it is just all over the place. You used it to warn about SARS and you used it to post about Ebola over the years. There was a lot of back and forth with other posters about religion and stuff. But you used a lot of humor too.

It is a very cool thread because of the very long time line involved and all the people who seem to know you so well.

But MA I have no idea what the theme is if it isn't microbiology.

MA: It is just as advertised. When I titled the thread Precognition there was one snippet of a report about a strange pneumonia found in China.

I felt something very odd was afoot and had a very bad feeling about this bug.

It has been this way all my life. I do not consider it strange to have very strong feelings that later turn out to be true. It is part of my very being.

I assure you that there are others who can testify to their experience with hunches, feelings, foresight or precognition.

Thus it was with that thread. I took to the Internet to chronicle the events I felt were about to occur and when they did occur, I simply reported them.

I also opined on my feeling about the relationship to Ebola and fruit bats - which also proved true.

Precognition means only what it says - sometimes we know things are about to happen before they happen.

Q: OK, well that is clear enough. Do you feel you leave yourself open to ridicule when you talk about things like this that are outside of science?

Page #41

MA: Outside of science? It is none of the sort - do you remember our conversation about the current evolutionary changes in man?

Q: Not really.

MA: We have became the dominant species on earth due to our evolutionary advances in perception. It is not even open to debate.

Our physical prowess and our motor skills are largely unremarkable and in many comparisons simply puny. No, it is our ability to look back in time and make predictions about the future that has fast tracked us to the crown of creation.

Q: I know that it is the development of our mind that has separated us from the other primates, but I have never heard it described as perception.

MA: Not just perception, for their are many species with tools for perceiving the world that are superior to ours, sonar, heat sensors, extraordinary vision etc.

It is the ability to time travel with our mind that has made all the difference.

Q: Huh?

MA: We time travel with our mind. We look back over events and we see patterns, we then look forward in time and extrapolate those patterns to the future.

Almost all giant steps forward are creative leaps done within some deep thinkers mind and then transposed into our physical world.

Easy as pie. We use an ability that educators call abstract reasoning. For example, you are given a drawing on a piece of paper and asked if you fold this drawing here and here what do you get?

You fold that paper in your mind and look at the result. Abstract reasoning. A scientist sees a series of data points, correlates them in his mind and postulates about future outcomes. Nothing magical to it.

All our recent evolutionary advancements have been made possible by the prehensile mind.

Perception - and like most abilities it is subject to the rules of intermediate expression. God's big sine wave.

Some individuals will be extraordinary mathematicians from an early age with a true gift for numbers, some will be largely unable to comprehend complex problems and most will fall in the middle.

It is the way of life. Perception is no different. We all have examples among the people who surround us. Some are highly perceptive of many things and some are not.

It is all science and it is all real.

Q: I had never thought of human evolution in quite those terms, it is really kind of cool.

MA: Very cool indeed.

Q: Thank you for taking the time to give such a detailed explanation. It makes a few things a lot clearer for me.

MA: Good

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.