What I see on the ground:
1. Lots of former Obama supporters will not vote for him again. Most of the independents that I know are disappointed. However, the conservative candidate needs to be careful not to scare them off. Many minorities, especially Hispanics (I know lots of legal immigrants from Mexico) think Obama’s economic performance has been dismal. Even the African Americans are hurting in this economy.
2. The Obama dim MACHINE is extremely well funded and powerful. They have skimmed off tens of billions from Porkulus, etc. to finance the MACHINE. It’s like Chicago on steroids nationwide. The sheep will be bused, herded, and cajoled into line at the ballot box.
3. Tea Party vets continue to organize and steadily work for their cause, but I don’t think it is enough. I will believe that Obama will be defeated when I see 90% of the precincts with active Chairs who get-out-the-vote. Conservatives are not taking the fight seriously enough. This is not a spectator sports; its a WAR.
What makes you say that conservatives are not taking this race seriously - the 21 point enthusiasm gap between conservatives and Democrats? Just asking.