I do not think that Europe will experience civil war any time soon, for the simple reason that there is a simple and logical alternative to war, in a return to nationalism, or more properly, nation-hood.
This is because the very notion of pan-Europeanism is based on fallacies. There are three primary ones. The first is that differences in nations and cultures are the cause of war. The second is that differences in wealth and poverty give the impulse to war. And the third is that nations are just arbitrary lines drawn on a map, without any underlying meaning or value.
The reality is far different. Its three primary axioms are first, that nations exist for many reasons, most deeply their underlying traditional legal system that permeates their culture, of which there are several in Europe. The second axiom is that all economics and politics are local. Wealth and poverty have different meanings in different places. And the third that war is a product of the elites, the leaders, be they princes or faceless bureaucrats.
The nations of Europe, more or less in their current form, existed long before there was a pan-European experiment that pretended to erase such borders. If the EU disintegrates, the national borders will still be there.
The easiest way to dispel such silliness as a threat of civil war is to suggest what nations will go to war with other nations. Will Merkel of Germany suddenly decide she has had enough of Sarkozy of France, and send in what little remains of the Bundeswehr to occupy Paris?
Or will Britain’s Cameron try to do as King Henry V and invade France himself? Will the ever belligerent Swedes try to conquer the other Norse countries to create a “Greater Sweden”?
Granted, the Flemish and Walloon of Belgium might split up, but they already wanted to.
The EU could certainly disintegrate peaceably. Many government officials still believe in a united Europe, however. Would they simply give up their power if asked? Civil unrest and ethnic strife has struck countless parts of Europe. I won’t flat-out assume that the governments will resort to war to attempt to solve the problems, but I won’t throw the idea out the window while watching the institutions of the past half-century begin their collapse. Peace has tended to be a rare occurrence in the course of the world’s history.
Actually, the first signs that war will be coming, will probably be the revitalization of their military forces. They wont make these initial investment shifts very public though. That seems to be the historic norm for the Euro continent, but this situation is unique in the aspect of Muslim immigration. The internal civil war could go hot very quickly due to something completely out of control of the ruling corrupt oligarchies.
Interesting insights. I also wonder if nations filled with people who engage in national strikes to preserve a system where they can retire at the age of 50 are ever going to be able to muster the will to engage in anything so bold as a major military campaign.