Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
Now hold on. You assured us she had a poor academic record, yet now you reveal you had no documented basis for your assertion? And no, the allegation of six years inferring something negative is bogus.
First, the accounts I have read indicate she finished in 5 years, not 6. The error is due to the difference between simple calendral subtraction versus actual semesters from beginning to end. It’s an easy error to make (called a boundary condition error in computer science), so don’t feel bad. I have two in college right now so its easy for me to get that.
Besides, my daughter is a 4.0 student in a difficult major and she’ll be finishing up closer to 6 than 5 because of holding out a year to work and wait for lower in state rates. People not born to wealth and inclined to carry their own weight often have interruptions that delay degree completion.
Therefore, your inference from delay is entirely without merit. You are assessing Palin’s intellect based on unsubstantiated rumors fabricated by the left out of thin air. Look at her recent work product. That will tell you more than faked records and poorly calculated degree completion times. That is, if you really want to know.
I damn sure hope so...geezuss
Romney is pretty steady to our chagrin...hell he looks better than Perry...right now..anyone ever figure they’d think that?. Perry has tripped over his pinga bigtime forgetting the schism Bush (his arch foe) had with his base over immigration.
Cain..nice guy...Michelle nice gal...Newt ..smart
but Palin has the lustre to grab it all..if she doesn’t...I strongly fear Romney wins.
this POTUS race is about GOP nominee.in reality...that is the real race
Obama is done...no way does he come back from this far down in a year..can’t be done baring something dramatic economically which is impossible now
even though we have more leftist voting blocs than ever...and will have even more if Perry had his way with latinos..we can still thwart those blocs for now and Independents are strongly with us
I hope Sarah has learned watching this week that words matter over immigration when trying for GOP nomination.
She is likely our only hope..not just the best...but only now.
any thoughts from my ping homies?..homettes?
I thought I might coulda lived with Perry if I had to but when you (rhetorically) start calling me a bigot for being against illegals with funny sounding last names..me ..daddy to two half latino daughters...I don’t want to hear that crap. Rove, Gillespie, Bush and company did that to us here in 2005-2006 and some chimed in here. They can all go to hell in a bucket.
Anyone legalizes all the illegals and we can kiss the whole tostaguac adios here..turn out the earth friendly lights
we will be Brasil by 2050
ping
I don’t wear panties.
Boxers...Peter Millar...one of my few indulgences in life aside from a 12 year old 911
Reagan announced on 11-11-79...with everything already in place for 5 years and never any doubt of his intentions and with primaries 8 weeks later than now
Sarah is already later than Reagan with primaries moved up and with less certainty.
and Perry has blown her a hole a country mile wide to waltz in
she should take it if she wants it...I used to be certain she was going to run...I sure wish she would as I’ve watched this unfold and go up and down
Bachmann has folded. Perry..good lord..how stupid to act with one’s base. Romney...unfortuntately not stumbling much.
We need Palin...my guess even Palin detractors here are starting to see that more. Cain...bless his heart..is just not going to get there. And Christe...another RINO from the Northeast?
this is a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY for a social conservative
the planets have aligned even for a culture war righty due to such dissatisfaction with leftist rule like we have never witnessed
The fact remains, you do not have those records, so you don’t know how she spent those 5 years, whether there were breaks for work, credit transfer problems, etc. It is an unsuitable basis for judging intellect. It would never work in a court of law because it can have so many different possible explanations; it amounts to no evidence at all.
And as a statistical matter, don’t you think a high school honors student is more likely to perform well in college than not, especially since the honors courses are geared to demonstrate collegiate level capacities? You do realize you’re actually asking us to accept the less likely scenario, with no corroboration, don’t you? Sorry. No sale here.
“The fact remains, you do not have those records, so you don’t know how she spent those 5 years, whether there were breaks for work, credit transfer problems, etc. It is an unsuitable basis for judging intellect. It would never work in a court of law because it can have so many different possible explanations; it amounts to no evidence at all.”
She majored in journalism. It is not a serious degree. The burden of proof lies on the one who wants to claim that she is some hidden genius because there is little evidence from her academic history, her public interviews or her very limited time spent as governor.
I’m not saying she’s stupid. Gosh, I agree with her on most issues. She has a good heart and strong sense of right and wrong. But we’re going to need someone who can handle some really difficult financial issues that won’t be solved simply by taking a line item veto and cutting out the “waste, fraud and abuse.”
Unlike the Affirmative Action Hero we currently have in the White House, Sarah Heath WORKED her way through College, as did my Niece who took five years to Graduate. Is that now some sort of shameful act that requires this level of disdain?
Did someone rename the “Daily Kos” Website Free Republic and fail to notify me? It seems we are busy eating our own while the Marxists take over the Country.
My question is, who is out there right now publicly defending the Constitution of the United States, anyone, anyone, Bueller? Everyone here knows the answer to that question, and it doesn't seem to be the people representing us in Congress or most of the people participating in the endless Republican Debates.
I hope Governor Palin jumps in, but she will do what she thinks best for herself, her Family and the Country. The speculation being tossed about here will not change her decision, but her decision will affect the future if all of us in one way or another.
Opinion regarding our Candidates, (declared or not), is one thing, but the entrenched positions being taken here are turning into numerous “go for the throat” confrontations IMHO.
The Obama Administration should be the topic of our ire, not slamming each other for backing one particular Republican Candidate over another.
Whomever is the last Man or Woman standing will get my Vote. Others here disagree, so be it. I have stated on many previous postings that I am an “Anybody But Obama” Voter and my opinion has not changed.
Just my .02 cents...
“Sarah Heath WORKED her way through College, as did my Niece who took five years to Graduate. Is that now some sort of shameful act that requires this level of disdain?”
Nothing shameful. Just not presidential material.
Well, but that’s where the facts we DO have on the record suggest a superior intelligence at work. She did an excellent job in Alaska taking on complex issues and resolving them with solid solutions. That’s why, if you’ve listened to her much, you know she wants you to look at her record of accomplishment, not your typical placebo political rhetoric.
So I think she’s met her general burden of proof for intellect, many times over, and I won’t be drawn into repeating the evidence. But you started this all on an affirmative claim of poor academic performance. If you want to make an assertion like that, fine, but in so doing, it is you who takes on the burden of proving your adverse conclusion, and you have not done so. Your “evidence” is pure speculation. Even so, you seem unwilling to relinquish it. That’s your choice. But I grow weary of the circular chase, and seeing how late it is, I must bid you good night.
Peace,
SR
Like I said, everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Reagan went to little Eureka College and he did pretty well for himself and the Country. President Truman was a High School Graduate, no College Education. There are others.
The idea that Sarah Heath taking five years to Graduate College somehow disqualifies her as President sounds like a Liberal talking point to me. If that is the reason that someone would choose not to Vote for her, the Electorate will doom this Country to failure.
Might as well let the Staff at Harvard choose our Presidents in the future. The people running Yale will just cast non binding ballots.
I really hate ari-freedom . Not presidential material??? But obama was...right. You are a nasty nerd and I hope you will get zotted. You just piss off every normal person on this thread, pro Palin or not. Your intellect is so low and vile, that’s disgusting.
Perhaps you should save a little bit of that hate for Obama, al qaeda and the abortionists who are killing thousands and millions of babies.
I hear ya — Perry busted the door down for Sarah with his big ole RINO horn during the last debate. I think she’ll step through shortly, knowing it was just a matter of time before the fool imploded. Romney’s next to fall.
“Reagan went to little Eureka College and he did pretty well for himself and the Country. President Truman was a High School Graduate, no College Education. There are others.”
Reagan did well but we have to have a higher standard. The problems with entitlements are getting worse. The tax rates were much higher in those days and you’re not going to get that easy win by cutting them again. Reagan didn’t really deal with the spending problem, neither did Bush but we’re going to have to deal with it and it’s not going to be fun for a lot of people.
My such nice language. You are the one being played, so deal with it. What a hateful person you are. I don’t have to get lost - so deal with that too.
No one said he didn’t. I just don’t think he has governing experience, Sure, he has business experience, but, dealing with other legislatures and foreign leaders is a whole new ball game.
Oh dear, now we pick our candidates by the sound of their voices. You truly are a nit-picker, aren’t you? Gee, maybe I can find a few negatives about your candidate. Would that make you happy?
My typo error! Since you pointed out my error, allow me to return the favor - it’s later the better - not latter.
I’m already happy. :)
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