Romney vs. Palin (The Huckabee decision and its ramifications)

June 19, 2011 | techno

[cc2k]

Interesting observations. I've also been puzzled by how the Media has been reacting to Palin lately. Mostly, they ignore her. The only exceptions are an occasional appearance on Fox News, which is typically followed by a one or two day marathon of "We hate Sarah" from everyone at MSDNC. I still think she'll jump in late in the summer, or perhaps in the fall.

How do you think Bachmann getting in affects the race? Do you think Palin might throw support behind her? I'm not sure what to make of that development.

The one thing I'm still pretty sure of is that we did not see an appearance by the actual nominee at any of the debates held so far (on Fox and CNN).

[Jeff Winston]

Frankly, it looks like Sarah Palin is our candidate.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

As much as I like Palin, she will only run if she can win. She cannot take a second loss and remain at the top of the conservative thought leadership.

My prediction is that if Perry becomes a serious candidate (the Gingrich hires are a big sign he will...), then Sarah will endorse him over Romney. If Sarah ran against Perry and Romney, then Romney would probably win the nomination. I would imagine that Bachmann or Ryan would be seen as Perry’s VP pick.

Sarah may run as VP again, stay as a pundit or become the Secretary of Interior/Energy or Commerce.

[techno]

That was why it was really important that Huckabee got out early so Palin could pick up some steam and separate herself from Bachmann in the RCP average.

Again with Huck still in the race, Palin would have had a more difficult time separating herself from Bachmann. Now she has about a 8-10 point lead over her which is pretty substantial.

And you can throw out the Rasmussen poll that showed Bachmann at 19%. Palin was not part of the mix.

[freedumb2003]

>>As much as I like Palin, she will only run if she can win.<<

Also, she can only win if she runs.

Based on her behavior in the last month or so, I say she won’t. Not she shouldn’t (although that is clearly a subject of great debate) — simply, she won’t.

I await the usual attacks of me as a Romney-supporting homosexual-agenda commie liberal socialist (who needs consistency when you are hurling invective?) illegal-alien-supporter because I DARE predict she won’t run.

I have been run out of a lot of FR arguments (the AM has been overloaded with “abuse” hits for me disagreeing with people), but I just can’t allow it to happen when I am reading the tea leaves.

[don-o]

Good post. Well written; well thought out.

I never could get past a visceral dislike for Huckabee. He gives me the creeps.Do you consider it a possibility that if Palin does not get in, that Huck would re-enter?

Bachmann is going nowhere - we do not nominate Representatives to run for the Presidency. Cain is going nowhere.

I’m thinking the most likely scenario is Perry or DeMint in and Palin going with one of them.

[don-o]

Some folks think being mind-numbed is a good thing. What’s that new Coulter book again?

[Jeff Head]

RUN SARAH, RUN!

Sarah Palin is shaking the Democratic leftist-liberal house to its very foundation.

She, her family, their faith, their values, and their story (particularly of choosing life for their young son and then so obviously being blessed with love for that son and he for them) represent the absolute refutation of all the tired old liberal mantras and victimology and a culture of death that they malignantly use to mentally, psychologically, and financially enslave whole classes of people.

From women's rights, to family values, to gun rights, to abortion, to energy policy, to taxation, to envrionmentalism, to fundamental governing principal, to U.S. soveriegnty and independence, and on and on...Sarah Palin is a wrecking ball to the leftist, liberal, socialist house of cards.

...and the leftists, DNC, liberals, MSM, and RINOs all know it, and that's why they rant and rave on and on about her and will do anything to keep her out of this race.

[freedumb2003]

>>Some folks think being mind-numbed is a good thing. What’s that new Coulter book again?<<

A-yup.

I love being proven right.

[techno]

Here is further statistical proof that confirms the separation between Romney and Palin vs. the rest of the field.

In two recent polls one conducted by ABC/WAPO and the other by Reuters/Ipsos the pollster asked an addition question of who the respondent’s second choice would be and then both pollsters tabulated the combined results to show the maximum each candidate had the potential to garner. Here are the results of both polls.

1)Reuters-Ipsos June 8

Combined first + second choice of respondents:

OVERALL GOP INDEPENDENTS

ROMNEY-————27%-————32%————16%

PALIN—————25%-————29%————15%

PAUL-—————14%-————15%————13%

BACHMANN-———12%-————13%————9%

CAIN-—————12%-————14%————7%

GINGRICH-———11%-————14%————5%

PAWLENTY-———9%—————10%————7%

PERRY—————9%—————10%————5%

HUNTSMAN-———5%—————5%-————5%

2) ABC/WAPO June 7

Combined first + second choices of respondents

OVERALL

ROMNEY-——————34%

PALIN———————28%

GINGRICH-—————13%

PAUL-———————12%

PAWLENTY-—————8%

BACHMANN-—————8%

CAIN-———————8%

Further proof that both Romney and Palin have separated themselves from the rest of the field.

[Diogenesis]

[SoConPubbie]

Based on her behavior in the last month or so, I say she won’t. Not she shouldn’t (although that is clearly a subject of great debate) — simply, she won’t.

Still pushing that thread-bare line I see.

Your opinion doesn't jive with everything she has done and said during the last several months including last month.

1. Bus tour
2. Bus tour stop in NH on the day that Romney declares meeting with GOP leaders in state effectively sucking the air out of the room.
3. Release of "The Undefeated" in major POTUS Campaign States.
4. Attempts to meet with Margaret Thatcher in the near future
5. Continued Bus tour to meet America and talk about Constitutional Issues around rest of country

Your opinion is lacking in foundational logic and facts that it is laughable.

Don't give up your day job Freedumb2003, your Political Analysis skills are completely lacking.

[Lakeshark]

I await the usual attacks of me as a Romney-supporting homosexual-agenda commie liberal socialist (who needs consistency when you are hurling invective?) illegal-alien-supporter because I DARE predict she won’t run

Since you posted that nonsense, why don't you show us one of these attacks?

Even better yet, show us a few.....

*Looking at watch for reply*

Please, think before you post......

[freedumb2003]

>>Don’t give up your day job Freedumb2003, your Political Analysis skills are completely lacking.<<

As usual for you and your ilk, you can’t simply disagree — you must make it personal.

Think about the implications of that... The “potential” (if unlikely) candidate may be gauged as much by her supporters as herself.

[freedumb2003]

Look at post 13: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2736981/posts?page=13#13

Look at YOUR post. Do you REALLY need me to go back and hit every thread? Observers of this thread don’t need the proof — they see it every time one of these emerge.

Bottom line, denotative or connotative, any suggestion that Gov. Palin WON’T run (much less shouldn’t run) is met with insane blind rage. Like yours.

With “Service Unavailable” you can look at your damned watch all night. Your post makes my point — and on every Gov. Palin (btw: do you know her personally? Why do you refer to her by her first name?)

And I am keeping track. And when Gov. Palin makes it clear she isn’t running there won’t be enough crow in the world for you to choke on it.

And the difference is that I have been denotative — I have said nothing about people who think she WILL run, except to the extent they attack me for saying she WON’T.

Smart people will see the difference. Others... well, what can I say?

[Lakeshark]

I expect you to show us one post like you claimed was common.

You know you screwed up, just admit it. Prevarication will only dig you deeper. Hyperbole is no way to convince people on FR.

I don't give a damn about service unavailable, you couldn't show one of those posts you claimed were normal if it took all night with a clear server.

[ansel12]

(the AM has been overloaded with “abuse” hits for me disagreeing with people

How would you know whether someone has hit the abuse button on you, especially to that wild extent, did you just make that up?

[truthfreedom]

Your argument presumes that Palin does run.

I’m not saying if she is or isn’t. She hasn’t announced yet, so both possibilities should be considered.

On Palin vs Romney - I wouldn’t count Gingrich out for the Establishment vote. Is Palin strong in the South? Are Mormons popular in South Carolina? So, Romney gets more votes than Gingrich in New Hampshire. That’s a reasonable assumption. Does Romney get more votes in South Carolina than Gingrich?

What exactly has Romney done to deserve “my turn”? 2nd place finisher is one way you can get “my turn”, but not the only way. Gingrich, because of Contract with America, is more deserving of “my turn” than Romney. A Liberal one term Governor from a Liberal state. Now what happens is that, because Romney is the front runner, everyone attacks Romney.
It doesn’t have to happen yet, but everyone benefits from attacking Romney. Last time, at this time, Giuliani was the front runner, here, Thompson and Giuliani were tied for 1st, almost exactly 4 years ago.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/19/us-usa-politics-poll-idUSN1918714220070619

Romney is the front runner, and he can make the case that it’s his turn. Gingrich is down right now, not taking the hits that Romney is likely to take as the front runner. I’m
just saying to rule Gingrich out at any point would be a mistake. He actually did something very good for Republicans, and voters remember that. Romney hasn’t done anything.

What you’re saying is basically right though, in that it’s a race between a tea party candidate and an establishment candidate. The most likely tea party candidate is Palin, if Palin runs, but if she doesn’t, Bachmann, Paul, Cain. On the other side, a similar story, Romney is the establishment front runner, the likely establishment candidate, but any number of things can happen. No one has run a negative ad against Romney yet. One would think that knocking Romney down would be essential for every other establishment candidate. Attacking Pawlenty would be pointless. Attacking Romney certainly wouldn’t be. So, any of them could take the establishment slot, if Romney is hurt enough.
I welcome an obscure Governor as the establishment candidate. It makes it easier for the Tea Party candidate to win.