Either one would've lost.
Nice try, though.
Wait... I thought you said Polls didn’t matter? Regardless, the exit polls showed a dead heat race between Castle and Coons... within the MOE... Of course, you probably don’t know the significance of MOE. (44-43) is an absolute tie, especially when you consider the “no sure” category. When faced with hard data like that, it is laughable to say that he would have lost.