Egyptian Democracy or Fanatic Islam taking over the Middle East?

Flopping Aces ^ | 02-12-11 | Curt

[Starman417]

Victor Davis Hanson reminds us about the last time we saw this kind of "revolutionary" fever...not in Egypt but in Iran:

So let us reflect for a moment on the revolutionary era in Iran to remind us that the end of freedom there was not instantaneous, but insidious. Massive demonstrations broke out against the Shah of Iran in January 1978 — similarly characterized by the prominent role of the middle and upper urbanized and Westernized classes. He was forced to flee Iran almost a year later, on January 16, 1979. The Ayatollah Khomeini arrived in Tehran shortly afterward, on February 1, 1979, disavowing any political ambitions other than “spiritual guidance” — as he was showered with positive appraisals from academics and other “Middle East” experts.

About another year later, on January 25, 1980, Abulhassan Bani-Sadr was elected president of Iran by an overwhelming margin — to expressions of joy that a sort of European-like socialist republic had replaced the Shah’s crass cowboy westernization. He ruled for a little more than a year and a half, then fled for his life from Iran on July 28, 1981 — his reign characterized by pitiful demonstrations of anti-Americanism designed to curry favor with the murderous Islamists. The entire revolutionary period between January 1978 and July 1981 was characterized by two general developments: repeated assurances from the Ayatollah Khomeini that there would not be a theocratic government, and insidious, constant erosion of secular government by Khomeini’s clerical followers.

In other words, when the crowds go home and return to their jobs, the most zealous, organized, and ruthless will go to work to consolidate power.

We can hope for the best but as Mata said earlier, there are no "good" guys in this story:

The perpetrators of this “pro democracy” crap is a dewy eyed media who are clueless to Egyptian law, their electoral periods, their Constitution, and who some of these people are and what their agenda is. They just parrot off the latest soundbytes you dreamers like to hear, rich.

Fact is, there really isn’t any “good guy” side to this story. But only one side was a known long time US ally. That, apparently, no longer matters.

And now the region as a whole understands how we treat our allies under a Obama administration...when it gets rough they won't support "the people," rather they will support the military overthrow of their government. The influence we have in that region is now nil.

Way to go Obama!

It sounds so wonderful. The people demanding something be done to fix their way of life, but who is really behind all this? And who will take over in the resulting power vacuum? I fear the worst and one Iran after another...now Algeria:

[Daveinyork]

Che Guevara once said that to defeat the “imperialists” there would be one, two, may Viet Nams. I think he was wrong. What we will get are one, two, many Irans, and it will test our resolve in the west.

[gwilhelm56]

In a nutshell:

Egypt 2011 = Iran 1979

Egypt will be an “islamic republic” in 8 months...18 months TOPS!!

[Dilbert San Diego]

And if the worst happens, what will Obama say then? Yesterday he said how we are witnessing history, the people rule in Egypt, yadda, yadda, yadda. What will he say if a Muslim oriented regime takes power?

And what would Obama say in light of his outreach to the Muslim world? Remember his major speech to the Muslim world was in Egypt. What would he say if our major ally in that part of the world turns fundamentalist Muslim????

I hope we’re all wrong about our fears of what might happen, but I think it’s wishful thinking at this time, for Obama to proclaim that we’re witnessing history and how wonderful this is, etc. We still don’t know how this will all turn out.

And remember how the Bolshevik revolution happened. There was the previous revolution which overthrew the czar in Russia, followed by a few months of some democratic reforms. Then, the Bolsheviks took power. So this initial revolution we’re seeing in Egypt, historically speaking, will likely morph into something else. Let’s all withhold judgement that this is such a wonderful event.

Chrissie Mathews on MSNBC was gushing over Obama and how Obama made it happen in Egypt. Again, depending what happens, Chrissie may eat his words.

[bill1952]

similarly characterized by the prominent role of the middle and upper urbanized and Westernized classes...

Bears repeating because this is the salient point in all of this.

[shalom aleichem]

My bet is Egypt is doomed to become a radical Islamic country. Obama roots for Islam. Whether it is one or not makes no difference. He is heavily sympathetic and supportive of Islam. Meanwhile, he jeers at the so-called American-way- of-life. He wants USA influence lowered in the world in all aspects. There is no way he wants Egypt to be like America, or even a modern Muslim majority country like former Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. The Manchurian has been very busy, and very effective.

[353FMG]

>What would he say if our major ally in that part of the world turns fundamentalist Muslim????<

.
Answer: “They got their hopey changey.”

[ex-snook]

But how does a democracy live with demographics?

[frog in a pot]

What would he say if our major ally in that part of the world turns fundamentalist Muslim????

As it appears his overt and covert efforts to such an end have paid off, he would most likely say, "It is the will of Allah."

But I disagree with the author, there are some good guys who have the power to bring about a decent outcome - if we tweak the meaning somewhat. And they are those members of the officer corps of the Egyptian military who recognize what will happen to the country if the moslems gain control.

[thethirddegree]

Muslims are too inbred to make freedom work.

[rob777]

I think that the short term answer is neither. it was the military that took over. Even at their peak, the number of demonstrators never reached a critical mass that could have threatened the regime on its own. The military could have easily squashed this uprising anytime it wanted to, but chose not to. It appears that they used pressure from the protesters to help push Mubarak out.

Mubarak is 82 years old and has cancer. In other words, his rule was nearing an end anyway. I do not think the military liked his plan to have his son succeed him. That would have changed rule by the military as an institution to the rule of a personal dynasty. What is not clear now is how many demonstrators will be satisfied with simply ousting Mubarak. That is the only demand that the diverse protestor groups were united on. Most of the groups, with the exception of the Muslim Brotherhood thought highly of the military. Right now no real change in the structure of Egypt's government has taken place. It is still under military rule with the only difference being that the figurehead at the top is gone. The extent to which the military will move to enact democratic reforms is anybody's guess at this point. One factor will be the degree to which the people are satisfied simply with Mubarak being removed. At the moment the military's main concern appears to be to restore stability. They may allow democratic reform if they think that it will help to stabilize the country.

The next question is what will happen if the country does move toward a democratic form of government with free elections. Right now that is a hypothetical question as it is not clear the military will move in that direction unless they have to. The best case scenario would be to move towards democratic reform slowly so that the pro-democracy groups have time to organize. The Muslim Brotherhood only has the strong support of about 15% of the population according to Dr. Walid Phares. The problem is that they are the most organized and control the avenues of communication. An immediate move to free elections would be in their favor. While they are not widely popular, they could use their communications infrastructure to propose an agenda that would probably be accepted by the masses in the absence of a an alternative voice. The pro-democracy forces were the ones who initiated the protests and seem to have broader support. Their problem is that they are not well organized. They have a positive view of the military. The military, at least at the top leadership level, deeply distrusts the Muslim Brotherhood. They will not make the mistake of allowing the MB to gain the reigns of power unless the MB has support among the junior officers that we are not aware of. In that case, the MB could push for a coup within the military and remove the major obstacle to its rule.

The longer the democratic reform takes, the more it favors the democratic reformers rather than the Muslim Brotherhood. I think that it wold be in the military's interest to oversee a long term move toward reform while helping the democratic reformers to get organized. This would be the best way to ensure that the Muslim Brotherhood remains marginalized in Egypt. Egypt is the biggest and most influential country in the Middle East. What happens there will affect the whole region. If true democratic reforms take hold, it would be the biggest imaginable blow to the jihadist movement. This was what the Bush administration meant when they referred to "draining the swamp" in the Middle East. The jihadist movement gains support when they can paint themselves as the champions of the people in the struggle against tyranny. If a genuine democratic reform movement were to take hold across the Middle East, it would take all of the wind out of their sails. In fact, because they would probably oppose such a movement, they would come to be viewed as enemy number one. This is the scenario that the setting up of a democratic government in Iraq was aimed at.

[FrankR]

[spokeshave]

The only good news is that Michelle la bell looks better in a Burka.

[screaminsunshine]

Those guys look like Democrats to me. And that makes them Fanatics.

[tflabo]

And Iran in 2008-09 people’s protest shows when a brutal, radical Islamic regime is in power democracy is squashed like a bug. Mubarak is dictator in light loafers compared to Monkey Man of Iran and his mullah puppeteers. Leftists and Obama failed to mention that dark episode of people yearning for freedom.

[frog in a pot]

That is certainly true. But there is no doubt she would argue the burqa is for the masses, AKA the “little women” and she is entitled to an exemption based on her station in life.

[Moltke]

When the first thrill wears off, Egyptians will experience the Worst Hangover Ever. A year from now there will likely be mass starvation.

Spengler nails it