WikiLeaks and U.S. Computer Security: The ‘Second Spy’ Theory

Pajamas Media ^ | December 7, 2010 | Charlie Martin

[Kaslin]

Either U.S. intelligence is massively incompetent, or PFC Manning had help — an insider with high-level access.

Whatever else it may have been, the disclosure of 250,000 State Department cables by WikiLeaks promises to provide material to the punditariat for weeks or months.

The revelations themselves were not all that surprising. The real news is — as with the Climategate files last year — that many of the most cynical explanations of what was happening turned out to be true:

– The U.S. really is tied in with an unstable and bipolar ally in Karzai, and works actively to keep him from damaging our interests.

– The global climate change conferences — like Copenhagen last year and Cancun this year — really are largely mercenary efforts by the UN, small countries, and qangos to extract cash from the developed world and use it to line their pockets and those of their friends.

– Under all the bureaucratic bafflegab of diplomacy, the State Department really does recognize that Russia’s government has been suborned into a kleptocratic oligarchy by ex-KGB officers who are unusually unscrupulous, even considering that organization’s sordid history.

In other words, the cables largely revealed that there remain people within the U.S. diplomatic establishment that actually are in touch with reality.

As someone who has been involved with intelligence for more than 30 years and with computer security for 25, however, the professionally interesting point is: “How did it happen?”

Let’s start by recalling some of the basics of the whole arcane mechanism of classification. The classification system in the U.S. grows out of two basic axioms: first, you work hardest to protect the material that can cause the most damage; and second, the one way to be certain someone can’t reveal a secret is to make sure they don’t know it.

The first rule leads to the sensitivity levels: TOP SECRET, SECRET, CONFIDENTIAL, and UNCLASSIFIED. Those levels define how much damage could be expected if the classified item were revealed.

The second rule leads to the notion of compartmentalization: classified items have various other terms attached, indicating limits on who should have access. In the WikiLeaks State cables, the cables themselves range from SECRET to UNCLASSIFIED, and the most common compartment is NOFORN: “no foreign dissemination.” Compartmentalization is part of an overall philosophy called “need to know”: you shouldn’t know something unless you need it, and so you shouldn’t have access to it unless someone with responsibility for the classification agrees you should.

To make this whole process easier, each paragraph is labeled with initials in parentheses. So, if you see a paragraph in the cables labeled (U) it means that paragraph was considered UNCLASSIFIED; (S//NF) means “SECRET NOFORN.”

The whole system of classification depends on two things: making it hard to get sensitive information, and making sure as few people as possible do know a particular piece of classified information by using “need to know” rules and their formalization in compartments.

According to the press coverage, the only suspect is one Pfc. Bradley Manning. Manning had been an intelligence analyst supporting the 10th Mountain Division. Manning bragged about having passed information to WikiLeaks to Adrian Lamo, previously famous for having cracking into the New York Times‘ internal systems. Lamo turned him in.

The story, as reported by the Guardian, is that Manning gathered the information on SIPRnet — a U.S. government sharing network for data at SECRET and below — then loaded it on writable CD-ROMs that he brought into his work area saying they contained Lady GaGa music.

The problem here: this explanation raises many more questions than it answers.

First is the “need to know” question. Manning had been a E-4 Specialist (same pay grade as a corporal) analyst — he was busted to PFC for unrelated reasons — and would have had access to intelligence in theatre. It seems inconceivable that he would have access to worldwide diplomatic cable traffic. The Guardian story’s answer is that these cables were being dumped into SIPRnet as part of a 9/11-inspired attempt to make information available, and thus avoid the problem of people not “connecting the dots.”

Perhaps. But the other side of that argument is what’s known as the “aggregation problem” in computer security: the more information you collect together, the more you can learn. As we’re seeing in these leaks, you can infer some very sensitive stuff from a lot of relatively low-level information. Are we really giving any random person with a SECRET clearance access to this much information, including video of Baghdad firefights and Special Forces operation reports?

Second, there’s the way Manning is said to have gotten the information out of his secure area. According to the Guardian, Manning brought in some rewritable CD-ROMs with music, erased the music, copied the data to the CD-ROMs, and walked back out with them.

If so, there is an ex-officer from his unit who is now counting socks in Thule, Greenland, or should be. Secure areas have a very straightforward rule on such things: media may come in, but it can’t go back out. (In fact, when I worked in a secured area, we even had to lock up our typewriter ribbons and platens.)

But this seems unlikely, because the DoD had forbidden people to even bring CDs and thumb drives in to secure areas in 2008.

As CNET reported:

The U.S. Department of Defense has temporarily banned the use of thumb drives, CDs, and other removable storage devices because of the spread of the Agent.bzt virus, a variant of the SillyFDC worm, according to Wired.

This explanation isn’t completely implausible. Not completely. If it’s true, it appears that it means general breakdowns in the methods by which the U.S. has protected classified information since the First World War, as well as violating explicit policies and procedures.

Of course, there’s another explanation: someone at a higher level of trust than Pfc. Manning is the real source, and Manning is just a convenient fall guy.

We can draw a picture of that source, just from what we know already. The source has access to diplomatic cable traffic, U.S. war reports, and even gun sight video across both major theaters of the war. Compartmentalization puts that person back inside the Washington, D.C., theater.

State’s diplomatic traffic is transmitted over their own networks; NSA, as the government’s cryptography arm, has some control of the implementation of that network, but State jealously guards its right to manage those networks. It’s possible someone at NSA would have access to all this, but NSA is a collection organization, not an analysis organization.

Analysis is done largely at CIA, but State also has people who look at, summarize, and digest the cable traffic — someone has to make it usable to the upper level diplomats, as there’s just too much to deal with in raw form.

It seems to me that our ideal other source would be someone with broad access, either at CIA, in the Department of State, or in the national security apparatus in the White House.

Countering this, of course, is Manning’s confession to Lamo. Lamo’s chat log of the discussion has been released, and it does seem as if Manning is claiming to have done it himself — but he also is cagey about it, and looking at the whole chat, it’s clear Manning is a very troubled young man. Might he be suggesting that he wasn’t the original source somehow?

So here’s the dilemma: If Manning really is the perpetrator, then there have been massive screw-ups, top to bottom, in the U.S. government’s management of classified data. If not, if Manning had a co-conspirator or if he’s the fall guy for someone else, then there may be someone who still has access to these networks, just waiting for the heat to come off in order to strike again.

And, of course, there’s another aspect to this “second spy” theory. Michael Savage, among others, has suggested this was a political “hit” by Obama insiders against Hillary Clinton, trying to block her from a primary challenge in 2012. I’m not a big fan of Savage; I’m not pleased to find myself entertaining what seems, at first, to be a fairly squirrelly conspiracy theory. But think of what’s followed: Assange has explicitly called for Secretary Clinton to be fired or resign; Hillary herself said since these cables leaked that this will be her “last public job.”

Both of these notions are speculation, and either one is troubling. Hopefully, with the new incoming Congress, the question of what really happened will be fully investigated.

WikiLeaks has certainly done harm to the United States and our interests, although I suspect it’s actually been less than previous releases of action videos and war logs.

Honestly, the deepest revelation seems to have been that the State Department really does operate cynically, for political motives, and I personally find that perversely reassuring. It’s better that then the other possible explanation — that State is full of delusional fools.

Nor do I imagine that the revelation that we say harsh things about our allies in internal documents caused much real disturbance, although the assumed outrage will undoubtedly be regurgitated in high-level posturing for the many years to come. But as Secretary Clinton has reported, the off-the-record response was: “Don’t worry about it, you should see what we say about you.” These people aren’t children.

What should really disturb us is the implications — not for our diplomacy, but for the competence and effectiveness of our own counter-espionage. There are really two possibilities: we’ve either, in the name of “sharing,” completely forgotten all the lessons that have been learned, at great cost, over the “War Century”; or there is someone else, with much broader access that Pfc. Manning, who was really behind this leak. And either conclusion should scare us silly.

[j.argese]

As a view of more reality tv than I care to admit to, rules are as follows:

1. Hyperbole and affectation have evolved into an art form.

2. Queers believe from Minute 1, the show is centered around them, is about them and judging is merely a formality.

That being stated, this Pfc. Manning is a composite character, created from whole cloth using nObama's psych profile as the template.

[hosepipe]

All thats needed is to hang a few people for treason and sedition.. to send a message to moles and would-be moles..
You know..... public hangings..

Meaning democrats and Rinos..

[Dr. Scarpetta]

There are really two possibilities: we’ve either, in the name of “sharing,” completely forgotten all the lessons that have been learned, at great cost, over the “War Century”; or there is someone else, with much broader access that Pfc. Manning, who was really behind this leak. And either conclusion should scare us silly.

BTTT

[Pecos]

The author’s conclusions re: the security side of things matches my 35+ year experience in the field.

[himno hero]

I am fearful that Obama will continue on through the Wicked Gate without impeachment....

This is all deliberate, maliciously intended and purposeful in Obamas nefarious agenda of bringing down the west. Take down America, the leader, and the rest follows. Assange is just a little player like ROSA BROOKS but cumulatively they have their effect. For Asssange? Obama eased his path. Much like Obama is easing the path for the OIC based UN to come into the US to hunt “War Criminals”.

Obama , culturally never was an American as he carries many chips on his shoulder and as we see from his old culture at many levels. He feels for his Kenyan identity, he feels for his muslim identity, and he feels his angst against white and America....

On top of it, Obama is a Muslim wanabe or Wahabe, I call him a ghazi.

“One of the prettiest sounds on earth” is the Muslim call to prayer at sunset.
Barack Hussein Obama as quoted by Nicholas D. Kristof in the New York Times - March 6, 2007

• The FIRST thing Obama did as a newly elected Illinois State Senator was to attempt to declare a Muslim holiday. Obama sponsored Bill SR0110 in the 90th General Assembly to declare November 1, 1997 to be Islamic Community Center Day. It did not pass.
http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/legisnet90/summary/900SR0110.html
http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/legisnet90/srgroups/sr/900SR0110LV.html

• His biological father was a Muslim.
http://www.bing.com/reference/semhtml/?title=Barack_Obama%2C_Sr.&src=abop&qpvt=barack+obama+seniot&q=barack+obama+senior&fwd=1

• Because his biological father was a Muslim the Islam world thinks he is a Muslim.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2010/08/obama_is_a_muslim_18_24_or.html?hpid=topnews
http://www.indonesiamatters.com/2952/barry-soetoro/

• His stepfather was a Muslim.
http://www.indonesiamatters.com/2952/barry-soetoro/

• As a child Barry was enrolled in school as a Muslim in Jakarta Indonesia. An Indonesian Madrasa.
• Barack Hussein Obama’s first and middle names are Arabic Muslim names.
Barack was the name for Mohammad’s horse. Husein, enough said.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700246419/Barack-Muhammads-horse.html
http://sanooaung.wordpress.com/2009/01/22/will-be-obama-with-us-muslims-as-the-meaning-of-his-name-in-persian-language/

• Obama recited the opening lines of the Muslim call to prayer, which includes a vow of fidelity to Islam, in flawless Arabic on a radio program. - Nikolos Kristoff, NYTs, 3-06-07 (***this one is a gottcha moment***)
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.3413/pub_detail.asp
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/11679

• On that same program he said he thinks the call to prayer is “one of the prettiest sounds on earth.”
http://jewagainstobama.wordpress.com/2008/03/03/obama-muslim-call-to-prayer-one-of-the-prettiest-sounds-on-earth/
http://caosblog.com/archives/7373

• Obama belonged to Rev. Wright’s (a former Muslim) church for twenty years. Many congregants are Muslims.
http://infidelsarecool.com/2008/04/07/jeremiah-wright-former-muslim/
http://infidelsarecool.com/2008/03/20/rev-wright-got-his-masters-degree-in-islam-in-west-africa/
http://endtimes.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/289

• Obama’s said that the U.S. is “one of the largest Muslim countries in the world.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyharnden/9959057/Barack_Hussein_Obama_US_one_of_the_largest_Muslim_countries_in_the_world/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/06/obama_america_one_of_the_large_1.asp

• Obama holds Muslim celebrations in the WH but canceled the National Day of Prayer.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1724544/obama_cancels_national_day_of_prayer.html?cat=9
http://www.exposeobama.com/

• President Obama’s religious adviser, Eboo Patel, once deemed the United States “the ideal place for the renewal of Islam.”

http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2010/06/-obama-tells-egyptian-foreign-minister-i-am-a-muslim-stealth-coup-on-the-white-house.html

• Obama does not give gifts on Christmas.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12035.html

• Obama doesn’t celebrate his birthday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/a-tough-birthday-for-obama/

• Obama falsely attributes Muslim participation in the founding of America.
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.7041/pub_detail.asp

• Obama required that the cross be covered when he gave a speech at Notre Dame.
http://blog.acton.org/archives/9843-notre-dame-georgetown-and-president-obama.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/05/11/opinion/main5006203.shtml
http://dougpowers.com/2009/04/17/obamas-jesus-coverup/

• Christian symbol covered up during Obama’s Georgetown speech
http://myfaithspace.ning.com/profiles/blogs/obama-covers-christ-and-cross
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=46667

• Obama’s first major speech in office was a “Muslim outreach” speech in Cairo Egypt.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-Cairo-University-6-04-09/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8083171.stm

• “The American President told me in confidence that he is a Muslim,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Nile TV.
http://barenakedislam.wordpress.com/2010/06/12/bombshell-egyptian-foreign-minister-ahmed-aboul-gheit-says-on-egyptian-tv-%e2%80%9cthe-american-president-told-me-in-confidence-that-he-is-still-a-muslim-%e2%80%9d/
http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=166905

• Obama gave strong support to the Cordoba House community center and mosque to be built at the Ground Zero site of Sep. 11, 2001 at a dinner celebrating the day’s end of the first day of Ramadan at the WH.
http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/president-obama-supports-ground-zero-mosque/19593492?ncid=webmail

• Obama tasked NASA with a mission of “Muslim outreach.”
http://technology.newsplurk.com/2010/07/nasa-and-islam.html

• Obama referred to his faith as “my Muslim faith” gaffe in an interview with George Stephanopolous.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQqIpdBOg6I

• Pushes Islamic freedom of religion but not Jewish or Christian freedoms. Several weeks ago he told Israel NOT to build settlements in East Jerusalem. But OK to build that Mosque at Ground Zero.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/7514285/Israel-spits-in-Obamas-eye-by-announcing-new-settlements-in-east-Jerusalem.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/24/barack-obama-israel-settlement-plan

All this brings on a interesting question... how can America have any struggle against Islam, or protect herself with the most powerful muslim in the world sitting in the White House?

Be wary, wary aware ....and wary, wary afraid...get prepared for more creeping sharia...more than what is coming out of the White House today

[antiRepublicrat]

Are we really giving any random person with a SECRET clearance access to this much information, including video of Baghdad firefights and Special Forces operation reports?

If the owners of that info are dumb enough to leave it in the open, then yes. Consider your average bureaucrat and his knowledge of computer security concepts and procedures.

had forbidden people to even bring CDs and thumb drives in to secure areas in 2008.

Making it forbidden and strip-searching everyone coming and going are two different things. I also blame it on lax local system admins who did not lock out the ability of the systems to write to CD, unless he had a job that required him to do that so had an exception.

We do investigations before giving people clearances so that we have a reasonable expectation to be able to trust them. Sometimes that trust is violated. And then we usually send those people to jail.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well, I’m with Rush. Where’s the birth certificate and the proof Bush was in on 9/11 and lied about WMD’s in Iraq? Where’s the good stuff?

We all knew in our hearts that NK, Russia and China were sending nuclear material and technology to Iran. We all knew that Russia had devolved into another Kleptocracy, We all knew the current administration had disdain for our allies. We all knew that the Saudi’s wanted an attack on Iran. We all knew Karzai was a corrupt little weasel. I’m waiting for Wikileaks to tell us something we did not know. Where is that pesky birth certificate?

[Kaslin]

Only idiots claim that President Bush was in on 9/11 and when you ask them to proof, they fail miserably

[mmercier]

Our intel people are in fact quite competent.

This whole wikidink thing is a successful operation.

Someone will write a book about it next decade, if there are still books being published.

[milwguy]

I concur. The thing that troubles me MOST and which the MSM has not talked about is that if Manning had kept his mouth shut, in all likelihood he would have not been caught. If he could do this much theft of gov’t documents without being detected INTERNALLY, how much other stuff has been stolen by other Pvt Mannings and SOLD to foreign gov’t that we do not even know about?

If security is so lax that a Pvt could download gigabytes of data and not be questioned or DETECTED, spies for our enemies have certainly stolen vast amounts of information from us as well. That is the real issue, not WIKILEAKS

[antiRepublicrat]

Don’t forget this is SECRET, the lowest level of what is considered to be classified material. Higher classified material is protected much better.

[LucyT]

WikiLeaks and U.S. Computer Security: The ‘Second Spy’ Theory

Check out article, and # 5.

I am fearful that 0bama will continue on through the Wicked Gate without impeachment....

This is all deliberate, maliciously intended and purposeful in 0bamas nefarious agenda of bringing down the West.

Take down America, the leader(s), and the rest follows. - Assange is just a little player like ROSA BROOKS but cumulatively they have their effect. For Asssange? 0bama eased his path. Much like 0bama is easing the path for the OIC based UN to come into the US to hunt “War Criminals”.

0bama , culturally never was an American as he carries many chips on his shoulder and as we see from his old culture at many levels. He feels for his Kenyan identity, he feels for his muslim identity, and he feels his angst against white(s) and America....

On top of it, 0bama is a muslim wanabe or Wahabe,

[snip]

All this brings on a interesting question... how can America have any struggle against islam, or protect herself with the most powerful muslim in the world sitting in the White House?

Be wary, wary aware ..." ... and afraid...get prepared for more creeping sharia...

[Red Steel]

From the article: There are really two possibilities: we’ve either, in the name of “sharing,” completely forgotten all the lessons that have been learned, at great cost, over the “War Century”; or there is someone else, with much broader access that Pfc. Manning, who was really behind this leak. And either conclusion should scare us silly.

I've speculated that some operative put out uncompartmentalized "honey pot(s)" on the secure SIPRNet network, which made it easy for some clown to gather the leaked information. Manning became the unwitting clown.

[Myrddin]

In facilities where media is brought into a TS space, it generally only leaves by being shredded and burned. Disk drives are disassembled and the platters dissolved in acid. There is generally a "two man rule" as well. You don't enter a TS facility alone. When you are "read in" to a program, you also acknowledge the penalty for disclosure can include life in prison or the death penalty. Manning committed the breach with full knowledge of the consequences. If they are not applied, then others will follow his bad example.

[tutstar]

read later

[PGalt]

Thanks very much for the ping; post; thread. Fascinating.

[palmer]

There are really two possibilities: we've either, in the name of "sharing," completely forgotten all the lessons that have been learned, at great cost, over the "War Century"; or there is someone else, with much broader access that Pfc. Manning, who was really behind this leak. And either conclusion should scare us silly.

Possibility one is that a government contractor or govt bureaucrat was incompetent. Possibility two is a theoretical and highly speculative set of circumstances. I'll go with possibility one.