Updated 2010 Early Vote Numbers (GOP up BIG)

United States Election Project ^ | Sun 10/24/2010 | Me

[Spydergoo]

Tonight's Updated Early Vote Numbers:

Colorado: 2008: D +1.8 2010: R +5.3 R Gain: +7.1

Florida: 2008: D +8.3 2010: R +19.1 R Gain: +27.4

Iowa: 2008: D +18 2010: D +7.8 R Gain: +10.2

Louisiana 2008: D +29.3 2010: D +2.4 R Gain: +26.9

Maine: 2008: D +13.4 2010: D +0.1 R Gain: +13

Maryland: 2008: ?? 2010: D +37 R Gain: ??

Nevada - Statewide: 2008: ?? 2010: R +0.1 R Gain: ??

Nevada - Clark County: 2008: D +21.4 2010: D +8.7 R Gain: +12.7

Nevada - Washoe County: 2008: D +11.8 2010: R +6.2 R Gain: +18

North Carolina: 2008: D +21.2 2010: D +6.1 R Gain: +15.1

West Virginia: 2008: D +23.9 2010: D +19.7 R Gain: +4.2

Source: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

[Spydergoo]

Oh, and as a bonus, here’s numbers for Washington State.

The following counties are listed from highest to lowest performance in 2010 over 2008:
Franklin: 26.4%
Benton: 23.6%
Whatcom: 21.1%
Thurston: 20.9%
Yakima: 20.7%
Kitsap: 20.7%
Spokane: 19.6%
Cowlitz: 17.3%
King: 16.5%
Pierce: 15.2%
Clark: 13.9%
Snohomish: 13.4%

And re-sorted for Obama over McCain in 2008:
Benton: 36/62
Franklin: 37/61
Yakima: 44/55
Spokane: 48/49
Clark: 52/46
Kitsap: 55/43
Pierce: 55/43
Cowlitz: 56/42
Snohomish: 58/40
Whatcom: 58/40
Thurston: 60/38
King: 70/28

It’s encouraging to see King County in the bottom half of both lists.

[excopconservative]

Not sure what your top set of county numbers means. Does it mean that R turnout exceeds D turnout by X%?

[Spydergoo]

It’s the percentage of 2010 early vote over the 2008 early vote, represented as a formula: (2010 Early Vote)/(2008 Total Vote).

[Tennessean4Bush]

I am still confused. Can you expound some more?

[Spydergoo]

To further clarify, Washington state doesn’t provide breakdown of D or R registration, just the raw early vote totals by county (and not by every county). So, what my number crunching shows is the higher the percentage of 2010 early vote totals in a county, the higher the turnout. And by and large, the counties that McCain won, are turning out bigger percentages of voters over 2008.

[Tuxedo]

Dumb question - since Washington is a mail-it-in state now, how do we know any early vote turnout numbers?

[Spydergoo]

In the most simple terms:

King County went 70% Obama and 28% McCain in 2008. So far, 16.5% of the 2008 early voters showed back up to vote.

Franklin County went 37% Obama and 61% McCain in 2008. So far, 26.4% of the 2008 early voters showed back up to vote.

King County is very Dem heavy. They aren’t showing up to vote at the rate that the Rep-heavy county is. This appears to be a trend across all of the Washington State numbers.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Got it. Thanks.

[Spydergoo]

Good question. Each county (or at least some of them) provide daily updates on the number of ballots (mail-in/absentee/in-person) received. Not all counties in Washington State do this. But enough that we can see the trends.

[thulldud]

King County is very Dem heavy. They aren’t showing up to vote at the rate that the Rep-heavy county is. This appears to be a trend across all of the Washington State numbers.

As we have seen in the past, King County voters don't need to "show up"; they somehow manage to get counted anyway. Enough to elect a governor, for instance.

[NorCoGOP]

Local paper here announced Republicans outvoting Democrats by 2:1 margin already.

Same for the Independants...

See www.greeleytribune.com

[Eva]

McClatchey had a poll out that showed Rossi ahead in every area except King county, which put him in a virtual tie in the Puget Sound area. Rossi says that he needs 41% in King county. That is not impossible since the independents are voting for Rossi 57%-36%.

[JLS]

I don’t get your numbers at all nor do I find them at the cited link?

[fortheDeclaration]

Looking good!