One small correction, o’Donnell is NOT “down” 11, that is fuzzy thinking.
She is down 5.5, as her poll numbers move up, Coons move downwards, she doesn’t need to make up all 11 pts.
You are right... I’m just going by the poll numbers. A six point swing and she’s in the lead.
Bottomline: They are spinning. They were claiming we had a “chance” when West Virginia was not even on the map or in play. Now it is. And so in theory if you swapped out Delaware for West Virginia, why is it no longer a possibility?
In addition, CT has tightened up dramatically. Which was written off as solid Dem. PA is now a lock which was a tossup. Etc etc.
Exactly right. What the so-called experts are missing here, which is remarkable because you'd have to be blind to miss it, is that we have a huge advantage in enthusiasm this time around. Polls are only measuring talk, while the actual election will measure action. I think the action minus talk delta will be enormously in our favor, something that is not being captured by current polls.
“She is down 5.5, as her poll numbers move up, Coons move downwards, she doesn’t need to make up all 11 pts.”
Plus the MoE on the Ras poll is 4% - at the positive end of that it means that she’s only -3, or as you are suggesting, CO would only need to eat 1.5% into Coons weak support to tie him.
I think it’s closer to than 11!