Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
“brass”
In the nad battle Palin, Brewer, Bachman appear to have more than the other potential candidate capons that merely go “cluck cluck”
Sorry, folks, but what part of “illegal” don’t we understand? Every last one of them should be deported. And, furthermore, in the deportation process, we should take mug shots. And, when they re-apply to come in here, legally, we pull out the mug shots. If they are there on one of these mug shots, they go to the back of the line. And furthermore, we will never, ever solve our “illegal” problem until we make it more of an incentive NOT to be an “illegal”. Get my drift?
THANK YOU, Brices Crossroads!!!
I am pinging myself so I can easily find your erudite summary when I nned it and I just know I’m going to need it!
Well. There is that and then there is your unmistakable charm! ;)
Nice commentary.
INDEED, but let's call others 'TRAITORS' and ignore this one, okay?
And because of the political attacks that made so many unsure of Reagan, and because of the fact that Americans were looking for an alternative to Carter despite the attacks on Reagan, 105 million people tuned into that debate just days before the election in 1980, still the most watched debate ever. Americans learned the truth that night and it was over.
I suspect it will come down to that again if Sarah Palin squares off against Obama. One on one, and I'm sure Sarah Palin will relish that and the debate audience record may well be broken after all these years.
Thank you, Onyx. At Al. B’s suggestion, I am reading Rendezvous with Destiny. Truly, it brings back some great memories. I feel like the 1980 election cycle is about to replay (with a few minor variations) in 2012 (with the same happy ending of course)
Oh my goodness and she *is* goodness!
If you post it on a separate thread, I’ll ping the list or we can ping the list to your posting here?
You make the call!
God bless you, Jeff!
Great to hear from you Jeff. God bless you in your recovery.
I like your tag-line, mind if I turn it into a bumper sticker?
LOL. Ha ha ha. Now, you’re making me miss you even more!!!
LOL. Excellent point. I’ll use more appropriate words next time!
I’ll have to read it too. Al B. is making us all smarter. I learn from his posts!
Indeed he is, Onyx. He is a perceptive student of the history that all of us have lived through. the enemy frequently employs the same or similar tactics. We can learn from those who have insights to offer. And I have found few who have a better grasp of Reagan than Al.
NUMP and THANK YOU!
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