Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Every time I hear the whining about Sarah “quiting” the governorship, I think about the Kenny Rogers hit, “The Gambler”. She obviously knew when to fold-em.
“but their attacks have been far more personal”
Very true, Al. With Reagan, the attacks did not involve his family or his personal history. It was his age, his intellect and his martial tendencies (he’s gonna start WW III), not necessarily in that order. The charges were unfair and untrue but they weren’t overtly nasty and most of the American people worried about them until they saw him on the stage with Carter.
With Palin, they have fired all their ordinance-the good, the bad and the ugly-and they run a real risk that was absent with Reagan in 1980. The American people collectively have a great sense of decency and fair play. They react very strongly to unfair attacks (as witness the level of unity the country achieved after 9/11 and Pearl Harbor). The MSM is in the territory of creating support for Palin because they are unable to destroy her, especially with women and with anyone who has been in a position where someone is taking unfair advantage of them.
Her spunk, grit and humor in the face of it wins converts. The left always overreaches. Or, as an old priest used to say, “the devil always bites his tail.”
Hey there my old friend. You are right. BOR is the centerpiece. All the rest are simply adornments. I still watch, tho.
Palin backs Murkowski's primary opponent in shot at D.C. Republicans
And what are Graham and Hatch running for, again?
Replies come late at night or during the night complete with the parents and guffaws and chortles and silly name calling. I have no interest in any of it. Reply to me without half quotes or just take a pass. Better yet, quit pooping on Sarah threads.
Every time I hear the whining about Sarah “quiting” the governorship, I think about the Kenny Rogers hit, “The Gambler”. She obviously knew when to fold-em.
Beavis, Butthead, and little Alfred E., such a cute family......
Good to see you! Yeah, BOR is awful, but someone in my house usually watches him, so I almost always hear him in the background. Tonight, I tried to watch the Sarah segment, but was interrupted for a moment by a phone call, which is the reason I plan to TIVO and watch the replay so I don’t miss ANY OF HER WORDS!
Works for me, Onyx! That would be the A team for sure.
LOL. TP Trolls and disruptors go way back in history to make their point.
Never mind what’s going on at present time and do NOT look at the Marxists in power.
He's worse than a RINO...
Frank and Colleagues (Ron Paul!!!) Scrutinize Military Spending [Shortened Title]
You betcha!
God Almighty. The Communist Chinese must be very pleased.
Looks like the ankle biters are after you. That is why I am nearly invisible on these forums. So much to think about regarding our future - and yet the sideline yappers only know disruptive discourse.
“Right, they would have to register with the government, but BOR was doing the talking... and all the ILLEGAL ALIENS that did not come forward would be deported.”
Poor guy. He doesn’t understand that (after sealing the border) you have to identify the group of illegals first then deport immediately the ones who don’t turn themselves in
(ie-register). Once they have registered, they can be monitored and deported in due course. It is what is called “governing”. This guy is into slogans and posturing.
And Ted Baxter is a clueless loud mouthed buffoon...an apologist for Obama. I think he is odious. And dumber than a box of rocks. Really thick.
Constitutional.
Reaching accross the aisle for more earmarks.......
:-)
SARAH 2010
She will deliver an historic victory and run the marxist out of town on a rail.
What Sarah Palin Represents
http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-represent.htm
I am seldom their target, primarily because I won't play their stupid juvenile games and I stay off the flame war threads, but let them come onto Sarah threads to spew and soil, and it's another story.
I miss you and your input. I hope you'll be here a lot more come election 2012.
Jeff... allow me to stray just for a moment. I sincerely pray that you are healing well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.