Wolf Blitzer: “Billion potential barrels of oil” under BP well; “Could really explode” expert says

Florida Oil Spill AW ^ | June 17, 2010 | jackie

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Nelson is a Kook.

[yield 2 the right]

I listen to the whole thing C2C AM with Noory interviewing Hoagland......sounds like “Tin Foil Hat Time”. However, anything is possible.

[mojitojoe]

Sure he is, but my friends in the Coast Guard aren’t.

[toldyou]

This is an interesting site...marine traffic...

Click on a vessel for more info...

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?level0=100

[SaraJohnson]

I saw him on a news program with a couple of Houston oil men who agreed with him. There are real oil people outside the ivy towers of Obamaczarland who are actually studying the subject and they are not happy. This guy is the only one who is outside of Obama’s fortress who is being cooperative with news interviews.

Now that CNN is admitting the well is compromised, we are allowed to know this. Just like we were allowed to know the actual amount of oil being leaked (out of the BOP area) once CNN told us in phases that it was “higher than expected.”

I am so sick of the secrecy and backstabbing!

[SaraJohnson]

In news interviews I learned that a few Russian land based deep wells could not be capped. They put a tatical nuke down there and the blast closed off the pipe and hole.

[Natural Born 54]

Gas bubble - how about the location of it being on top of the oil deposit but under a somewhat impermeable strata which is not mixing with water at all? If the explosion occurs down there, isn’t that the disaster to which they are referring? Because of the pressure, it would blast through the strata directly above and then through the softer seabed layers. Once through that, would it not rise above the water into the air because gas is indeed lighter than water as you say? Hence the toxic cloud and the wave. Seems at least feasible to me. (I included a couple of other people above because they are very interested in the answer.)

[SunkenCiv]

Ruh-roh.

[SaraJohnson]

I think Hoagland is an attention whore kook, personally.

[Natural Born 54]

I don’t know him from Adam but the search results I got on him were mixed at best. If someone credible, like the geologist he cites, comes forward with this as promised, then we maybe should take it seriously. Until then, I’m watching.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Gas bubble - how about the location of it being on top of the oil deposit but under a somewhat impermeable strata which is not mixing with water at all?"

This describes every oil reservoir in creation. And doesn't fit the description of the so-called "geologist".

"If the explosion occurs down there, isn’t that the disaster to which they are referring? Because of the pressure, it would blast through the strata directly above and then through the softer seabed layers."

Precisely what is supposed to "explode". There is no air down there. If the gas and oil percolates up around the outside of the well casing, all you'll get is an increase in leak rate. There is no mechanism to cause an "explosion".

"Once through that, would it not rise above the water into the air because gas is indeed lighter than water as you say? Hence the toxic cloud and the wave. Seems at least feasible to me. (I included a couple of other people above because they are very interested in the answer.)

Sorry, but this is all hogwash. If there was even a remote possibility, places like "The Oil Drum" (which is inhabited by sane people who really know what is going on) would have it at the top of the headlines. I suggest y'all spend more time there than places like "Project Avalon", which seems to be full of nutcases.

After note. I just did a quick visit to "The Oil Drum", and they are discussing this very scenario. The universal opinion is "it's plain nuts".

Also a comment that the reservoir pressure had been measured, and it was found to be 11,500 psig, NOT 100,000.

[El Gato]

gland went on to discuss a worst case scenario that if the well is pressurizing the upper level strata and were to create cracks in the ocean floor at the top level which appears to be happening and they try to cap the well or the final rupture occurs, you could have the most horrendous gas explosion.

You might get an explosive eruption, but under the water, where would the oxygen or other oxidizer come from to cause the gas bubble to explode in the sense of rapid combustion. Most "explosives" have their own oxidizer built in.

(military gps would be best of course)

Unless selective availability is turned on (at the satellites) commercial GPS is just as good as military. Sure some, but not many, military GPS sets have special capabilities, like cycle counting, but for this application, commercial surveying quality GPS sets would be better than most military GPS. Military sets tend to be better in "high dynamic" environments, as in a fighter aircraft", but in a boat, not moving all that fast, commercial sets would be fine, and probably better. They all work with the same signals from the satellites... again, unless selective availability is on. It was turned off in May of 2000 and is still off, AFAIK. It was still off on the 10th anniversary, last month.

[SaraJohnson]

Most of the time Hoagland does not come up with his “insiders.” Just sayin’

But let me know if he does, please.

[Natural Born 54]

Will do.

[Natural Born 54]

I never claimed to know what is going on - that’s why I asked you. That last post was all me giving you a scenario. It is difficult for a layman to know all the things that can be involved and I probably did not express some of it correctly. One thing I remember from the discussion is the concern that capping the well would cause the pressure to increase down below which could lead to this huge gas bubble busting through the layer above it and through all the layers above that and finally breaking through to the air. Explosion might be the wrong word - it was mine. I was not the one who came up with this idea, it was the geologist and one that is well regarded. I am just trying to understand why you dismissed it out of hand. The geologist couldn’t be so stupid as to come up with a concern that has no possibility of being feasible. Yet, you are also well informed. So how can you both be credible? (If you want to look the guy up search for him be virtue of his claim to fame - putting the oil well fires out in Kuwait.)

By the way, before 2 days ago, I had never even heard of Hoagland nor of Avalon Project. I’ve got enough to worry about without taking on aliens and whatever else they are into there.

[steve86]

That 1972 CB175 was a street bike, but I rode it in the dirt with the rest of my buddies. Hill climbing, motocross, trials, flat track.

My dad had a CB175, '70 or '71, the year they had the electric blue one. I rode it in a competitive trials but didn't do very well. Would not have attempted anything like a motocross track at speed on it but it was a pretty good trail bike. I am going on the Hodaka Club "Bad Rock" trail ride next week, but on an IT250.

[Quix]

I love domes and thought the same thing.

Thought they were trying that at one point.

Maybe they don’t want to be sensible.

[Natural Born 54]

Thank you for the explanations.

[Myrddin]

Have a fun and safe off road ride next week. I'm envious, but it's just not going to happen around Pocatello this year.

I rebuilt the carbs on my Yamaha TW200 and XT250 machines in hopes of getting some off road time this year. Both run like a champ now. The rain continues. The mud remains. Now, I have to go to San Diego from July 6 to August 14, so another year will pass me by for off road riding. I put over 7,000 miles on my Versys in San Diego from July 29, 2009 to Feb 4th, 2010. It is going back with me on the upcoming trip. Six weeks with high gas prices and 70 miles of daily commute will be better done on the Versys. I just purchased a used 2008 Harley Roadster with 7500 miles. I have a list of enhancements that I want to apply. It is too heavy and has insufficient clearance to load on my trailer, otherwise I would take it to San Diego for the upcoming trip.

The "new" 2008 XL1200R

[Wonder Warthog]

"I am just trying to understand why you dismissed it out of hand. The geologist couldn’t be so stupid as to come up with a concern that has no possibility of being feasible. Yet, you are also well informed. So how can you both be credible? (If you want to look the guy up search for him be virtue of his claim to fame - putting the oil well fires out in Kuwait.)"

Believe whomever you wish. I'm getting tired of trying to inject a wee bit of sanity into all the nutcase crap that is flying around about this situation. I dismiss his "theory" out of hand because it doesn't fit known facts. The reservoir pressure has (and had) been measured, both while the well was being drilled and during the cementing attempts. The pressures at that time were found to be 13,000 psig. From "The Oil Drum", they say measured pressures are 11,000 psig. I assume the difference is that the latter number is a measurement of current pressure, or it could be due to differences between different measurement methods.

The well blew out because BP cut corners, not because of gigantic pressures in the reservoir. 13,000 psi is plenty enough to cause a blowout if you pull the balancing mud out of the well pipe before the cement has fully set. Which is precisely what BP did.

And I suspect that whoever the guy you're talking about is, he is no more a geologist than you are. It seems that NOBODY is bothering to do even the slightest fact-checking, not even the major media. The more catastrophic and lurid the idea presented, the better the media accept it.